All right, Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz in an MMA match is far, far from confirmed. However, there is a betting line for it IF it happens — which there’s a decent probability of it. Let’s speculate on betting Paul vs. Diaz in MMA, and who wins.
Why Paul vs. Diaz II Can Happen
We’ll get to the betting momentarily but surely, there are many of you reading this thinking Diaz vs. Paul can’t happen — not in mixed martial arts, that is. But after thinking about it, especially from a business standpoint, it’s more probable than you think.
For starters, Diaz is signed to PFL. It was a splashy signing, and you’d think, PFL is eventually going to enforce it. Hate him or love him, Paul is an attraction and PFL needs the interest to truly compete with the UFC. PFL boss Donn Davis has hinted Paul could debut for the promotion in 2024.
We’d imagine the second half of 2024 could work. That’s because Paul is scheduled to box — his “native” sport — in March in Puerto Rico. We can’t imagine Paul rushing in to debut in MMA so soon after this bout. No, no, he’s going to take his time so he doesn’t embarrass himself in the MMA cage.
After a series of noteworthy fights, Paul has gone the “journeyman” route in boxing lately. He bested no-name Andre August in November and probably will go the same route in March (a card that will be headlined by Amanda Serrano, not him). We doubt that’s his plan for PFL. The promotion is paying him big bucks and needs a return on the investment. The list of people that can equal Paul’s star power in MMA is short, but the list does feature Diaz.
Diaz is currently a free-agent fighter. Reaching the twilight of his career, you have to think he wants a big payday PFL is that payday. The PFL boss has thrown out $10 to $15 million as a number he could pay Diaz to make it happen. Remember, the Saudis just invested in PFL and PFL also bought Bellator so there’s money to spend if the matchup is right — which this one is.
If you recall, Paul and Diaz fought in a boxing ring in 2023. Paul won comfortably and even knocked him down one time. According to Paul, the plan was always for a 1-and-1 fight — once in boxing, and once in MMA. The boxing contest sold well on pay-per-view (over 450,000 boys in the U.S.) despite little promotion from Diaz. He could do the same and bank the biggest payout of his career. Whenever that’s a possibility, for Diaz or any other fighter, the chance of happening is always there, hence our confidence here.
Diaz vs. Paul MMA Betting Predictions
To absolutely no one’s surprise, Diaz is a massive betting favorite over Paul in MMA rules. Check the best betting sites for sports, and across the board, Diaz is a substantial despite. Here’s the latest odds:
| Fighter |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | -800 | -800 | -800 |
| Jake Paul | +425 | +425 | +425 |
We think the fight is mispriced. Call us crazy, but we think it should be closer — not more one-sided. Before you call us stupid and click off this article, hear us out for one measly minute.
Yes, Paul has zero MMA experience. Yes, it will be a steep learning curve to pick up — no matter how hard he trains. However, this matchup suits him as a first-timer. That’s because Diaz is a brawler first and foremost. For a novice like Paul, picking up the takedown and grappling is what’s the hardest. Can Diaz do that? Yes, but it doesn’t mean he will. Diaz is a striker through and through, and it’s why the UFC fanbase loves him so much.
If this MMA fight happens standing up, then it’s not that much different than a boxing fight. The gloves are different and so is the fight stance, but Paul at least has a chance if this fight is mostly striking. Let’s not discount the fact that Diaz will be 39 years old in April or the fact that Diaz has a lot — and we mean a lot — of damage over the years.
The big variable in this fight is the weight class. Diaz has fought MMA af welterweight since 2016, which tops out at 170 pounds. In boxing, Paul mostly fights around 185 pounds. Diaz moved up to this weight for the boxing bout, which didn’t help his performance at all. In other words, Paul would also have a size advantage over Diaz to go along with his youth.
Look, we’re not saying Paul will beat Diaz in MMA. All we’re saying is there’s a chance and if so, that +425 betting line might be worth taking a flyer on. Even a small bet pays big at those lopsided odds so it’s worth it. Paul’s only real path to victory in MMA is KO, and it’s plausible. We saw Francis Ngannou almost shock the world over Tyson Fury at boxing, and Paul might be capable of the same against Diaz in MMA.
How To Bet On Paul vs. Diaz MMA Fight
Visit one of the underneath bookies to bet on a potential Diaz-Paul MMA bout. Every type of bet for fights — boxing, MMA, hell, even WWE — can be found at any one of the sites below. These same sites rated highly in our latest sportsbook reviews so your money is in good hands no matter where you go!
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