There are money-making opportunities in the UFC every weekend, and that’s no different this Saturday. We have ourselves a fight card from Brazil and it’s stocked with bets. However, we’ve hand-picked three must-make bets on the UFC Fight Night show. If you stay with us, you’ll get our expert betting advice for free!
- What: UFC Fight Night
- When: Saturday, October 28
- Where: Sao Paolo, Brazil
Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis Betting Pick
This heavyweight match was thrown together two weeks ago when Curtis Blaydes was forced out and replaced with Lewis. Obviously, that short notice puts Lewis at a significant disadvantage, which is reflected in the moneyline odds where Lewis is a +350 underdog. That lopsided line has forced us into taking the Almedia-Lewis over/under instead. The line isn't quite out, but we know what we're doing once it is live.
| Outcome |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over rounds | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Under Rounds | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Let’s be real, even with a full-length camp, Lewis was not going to be given a favorable line against Almeida. Not when the fight is taking place in Brazil, where Almeida hails from. Not when Almeida has won 15 straight fights. Not when Almeida is six years younger.
Almeida has serious heavyweight champion potential. As you can imagine by being Brazilian, he’s a super grappler. There’s no one that Almedia can’t takedown then pummel on the ground. Amazingly, only one fight in Almeida’s career has ever reached round two. One! Everything else has ended early by submission or KO with Almeida racking up a 19-2 mark. This guy’s as good as advertised, believe us.
Then there’s Derrick Lewis, who you never want to completely count out either — even on short notice. That’s because Lewis is a knockout artist, having finished more opponents at heavyweight than any other man in UFC history. That’s his only real chance at topping Almeida so we fully expect Lewis to go head-hunting in this one.
You have to bet the under here. It’s the more value-rich bet than moneyline and both fighters’ style lends themselves to an early outing anyway. This is a no-brainer gamble as far as we’re concerned.
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby Betting Pick
The welterweight fight that will semi main event has an even more one-sided moneyline than the main event. As it stands, the best UFC betting sites have made Bonfim a convincing -500 favorite to beat Dalby.
Once again, we’re gonna have to jump on the Bonfim-Dalby over/under. It’s the only way to make money without having to bet an arm and a leg on Bonfim’s moneyline. We’d be quite shocked if Bonfim doesn’t pull this win out. The 26-year-old is 15-0 and has championship potential of his own.
Here’s the thing about Bonfim: he’s never NOT finished an opponent. Amazingly, he owns 12 submission victories and three knockouts. Bonfim can do it all in the octagon but Brazilian jiu jitsu — he’s from the country too — is his absolute specialty. Watch out for his boxing though.
Bonfim’s finish streak is impressive, but Dalby has an even more impressive streak: he’s never been stopped before. The 22-4 fighter has only lost by decision, that’s it. So in a way, this is the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. Something’s got to give!
We’ll give Dalby the benefit of the doubt and say he can hang. Bonfim hasn’t faced a fighter quite like him so we predict he’ll struggle to get him out early. Take the over in this one!
Don’Tale Mayes vs. Rodrigo Nascimento Betting Pick
At last, we have a decent moneyline. Have a look-see at the latest Nascimento-Mayes odds:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Nascimento | -200 | -200 | -200 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | +165 | +165 | +165 |
Honestly, we feel the odds should be a little closer. We see scenarios where each fighter could win. On one hand, you have a 10-1 Nascimento. He’s the hometown guy, and yes, he can grapple too. Six career wins have come via submission for Nascimento. He is decent at striking, however.
Striking is definitely Mayes’ strong suit. This guy can bang and will have the size advantage in this one. Certainly, Nascimento is the more skillful fighter of the two, but Mayes has the power to swing the outcome at any moment.
We’re siding with Nascimento’s moneyline here. These two actually threw down in 2020 and it ended in a second-round submission win for Nascimento. We’re willing to bet on a similar outcome in this one.
How To Bet On UFC Fight?
Per usual, when you factor in the prelims, this card features more than a dozen bouts — that’s a lot of possible bets. For a one-stop shop for UFC Fight Night betting, hit one of the bookmakers you see listed below. You can read our latest sportsbook reviews if you want to compare sites against one another, but they're all pretty top-notch!
But the best part? Your bets this weekend could be on the house. That’s because there are lucrative promotional bonuses available right now. These promos can reach thousands of dollars in free play when maxed out. See the table for a list of our favorite offers.
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