Don’t even think about betting on UFC 300 without getting our expert picks right here. We’ve analyzed the historic card, and have settled on making three bets. Which ones? Keep reading and we’ll tell you for free!
- What: UFC 30
- When: Saturday, April 13
- Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill Betting Pick
We’re very stoked about this fight. Sure, UFC fans and even bettors groaned that this is the main event fight of UFC 300 — and not Jon Jones or Conor McGregor or another massive star. But folks, this light heavyweight title fight is going to be a barnburner based on the fighting styles. The odds, currently available at the top UFC betting sites, also reflect that. Pereira is a meager moneyline favorite over Hill, as seen below:
| Fighter |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | -135 | -135 | -135 |
| Jamahal Hill | +115 | +115 | +115 |
One thing is abundantly clear to us: someone is getting finished early. We’d be shocked if this fight ends any different. Even the over/under line is set at only 1.5 rounds of a five-round fight. This has high knockout potential because of the styles — both guys stand up and swing, with very little grappling.
The reigning champ Pereira fights from a kickboxing style. You probably know his background by now: kicking boxing world champion in Glory turned two-division UFC title-holder. The craziest part? Pereira only has nine career MMA fights. He’s cut the learning curve at this level thanks to his sensational striking. Pereira has ended seven of his MMA bouts early so he’s as dangerous as they come in this weight class.
On the other hand, Hill is a boxer through and through. We’d stop short of calling him as dangerous as Pereira, but there’s no denying he’s bringing the offensive pressure. The thing is, this is Hill's first fight in about a year’s time. A ruptured Achilles sidelined him AND forced him to vacate the title that Pereira now holds. It’s a good comeback story, but it’s fair to wonder whether Hill will be affected by the long layoff and a pretty debilitating injury.
When looking at the matchup closely, Pereira warrants our bet more. The difference-maker will be leg kicks. See, that’s one massive flaw in Hill’s game. More specifically, he doesn’t defend against them one bit. Seriously, Hill is nearly useless at fending off kicks. That’s a bad predicament to be in against Pereira, who is world-class at kicking. Therefore, we strongly advise a wager toward Pereira.
Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway Betting Pick
The BMF belt is on the line in the featured fight on the card. This matchup pits two crowd favorites together. Favorites because both Gaethje and Holloway are two of the most aggressive fighters in the entire UFC. That made us especially inclined to bet on the Gaethje and Holloway over/under, which is as follows:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 Rounds | -165 | -165 | -165 |
| Under 3.5 Rounds | +130 | +130 | +130 |
The big thing here is guesstimating how Holloway will respond to moving up to lightweight from his normal featherweight. It’s not an easy jump from anyone, particularly for a 32-year-old with as many miles on his fight odometer as Holloway. He’s fought at lightweight once before, losing to Dustin Poirier back in 2019. Recent images of Holloway do make him look shredded though.
The consensus belief seems to be that Gaethje will hand Holloway the first knockout loss of his career. Holloway has arguably the best chin in the promotion but he’s probably never felt power like Gaethje’s and at this weight class. Gaethje also owns the reach advantage so he’ll have his chances at chinning Holloway, no doubt. Still, we’re fading that consensus opinion.
Here’s what no bettor seems to be bringing up: Gaethje is 35 years old now. This is the exact age most fighters start losing a step. We’re going to give Holloway the benefit of the doubt and say he takes the BMF title-holder to the distance. Holloway is a legit all-timer and we refuse to discredit him this easily.
Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan Betting Pick
Forget betting the Weili-Xiaonan moneyline — unless you think there’s going to be a massive upset. We do not believe that and there’s zero betting value in taking Weili at -395 odds. Zero! For this reason, we’re wagering on the over/under wager between Weili and Xiaonan. Here’s how the betting lines are shaking out:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 Rounds | -150 | -150 | -150 |
| Under 3.5 Rounds | +120 | +120 | +120 |
Weili is the more skilled fighter in every aspect. Heck, we wouldn’t even just say that in this matchup against Xiaonan, but against almost every women’s fighter out there. Weili is the most complete fighter we’ve seen since Amanda Nunes. We don’t see a scenario where Xiaonan can beat her on points for five rounds. No way.
Xiaonan’s only real hope at winning is to finish Weili. A flash knockout essentially. It’s happened once to Weili before so it’s not out of the question. Plus, Xiaonan is a pretty skilled striker. She can headhunt if needed. Still, Weili can strike right back and in fact, it’s her preferred mode of fighting.
We’re pretty sure this fight is going under. Our prediction is by way of a Weili knockout win, but in the event she’s shockingly upset, it’ll be by KO too. These scenarios make those plus-money odds on the under bet real valuable to us.
How To Bet On UFC 300?
Want to bet on more UFC 300 fights? After all, the likes of Charles Oliveira, Kayla Harrison, and Jiří Procházka are also on the card. Any one of the bookies below will offer the full gamut of UFC 300 betting types available — all fights and all markets (moneyline, props, futures, etc.). Altogether, there are around 100 bets available for this show.
What’s more, there are even big-money promotional bonuses available to bettors. These promos can pay out hundreds to thousands of dollars in free play — money that can fund your UFC betting for free. To get in on this, check out the table below that lists the best deals available.
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