Best UFC 286 Bets: Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards Picks

Eric Uribe
By , Updated on: Mar 12, 2023 08:00 PM
Best UFC 286 Bets: Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards Picks

Don’t even think about UFC 286 betting until you read this article all the way through. The pay-per-view comes live from London on Saturday, March 18 — and we’re giving you three free betting picks, including on Edwards-Usman III.

Edwards Vs. Usman Betting Pick

We got ourselves the rare trilogy fight as the headline bout of UFC 286. Edwards outs up his welterweight championship on the line, however, the title-holder is the uncommon underdog in the title fight. As you can see below, Usman is a comfortable favorite to win, per the best betting sites for UFC:

Kamaru Usman-245-245-245
Leon Edwards+195+195+195

No one who watched their rematch this past August at UFC 278 should be surprised by the current odds. That’s because Usman was one minute away from securing a convincing victory before he was caught with a pitch-perfect kick to the face. It was an instant knockout — and one of the best of the year. But without it, Edwards was on his way to a unanimous decision defeat.

That’s why we’d be shocked if Edwards won at UFC 286. While he did successfully take down Usman in the past fight — the first ever time that Usman has been grappled to the ground while in the UFC — that was a blip on the radar. Aside from that moment, it was Usman in complete control. His wrestling, per usual, was giving Edwards all sorts of problems. That won’t change in the third and decisive fight.

The only way Edwards wins is if lightning strikes twice. Will it? We say no. While it is true that Edwards very obviously planned a kick like that (there’s videos of him in training practicing the same exact blow), we think Usman will be much more cautious this time around. Usman admitted going for the finish in the fight — a decision that cost him dearly. Perhaps he just leans even more into his wrestling to outpoint Edwards this time around.

So here’s our final prediction: Usman wins by decision. As you can tell, Usman’s moneyline odds aren’t all that lucrative. So perhaps it’s worth pairing that moneyline with the betting under into a parlay. If our prediction pans out, the payout would be significantly better than just taking the moneyline straight up.

Kamaru Usman to beat Leon Edwards

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Betting Pick

The semi-main event is going to be a barn-burner, there’s just no way it isn’t — not when you have two knockout artists in the same cage. On one end, you have one of the heaviest punchers in the lightweight division, Gathje. Fiziev, however, has shot up the division rankings with one finish after another. Whoever wins this could be in line for a title shot too so expect the best from both. As it stands, here’s where the Gaethje-Fiziev betting odds stand:

Rafael Fiziev-230-230-230
Justin Gaethje+180+180+180

We think the kicking game could be the X-factor here. Gathje usually is the better kick striker, but will not be in this one. With Fiziev’s deep Muy Thai background, he’s likely the very best kicker in the whole division. Those kicks will likely be enough to keep Gaethje at bay. If Gathje doesn’t have room to connect his massive punches, then he’s just not the same lethal fighter we’re used to seeing.

Therefore, we’re picking Fiziev to prevail. We believe he’ll have ample opportunity to carve up Gaethje — not just with his feet, but his hands too. Fiziev’s elusiveness and speed will present a real problem for the aging Gaethje. We would not be surprised in the slightest if Fiziev gets the stoppage win.

Rafael Fiziev to beat Justin Gaethje

Joanne Wood vs. Luana Carolina Betting Pick

For our third and final UFC 286 pick, we wanted to hone in on the “home” fight — sort of. Scottish fighter Wood will likely have crowd backing here in London, but still, it won’t be overwhelming support either. Wood is currently the betting favorite over Carolina in this flyweight clash, but we’re not in agreement. Before we get to that, though, here’s how the odds shake out:

Joanne Wood-180-180-180
Luana Carolina+150+150+150

To us, Woods is, more or less, finished in the octagon. She’s lost three straight fights — the highest streak of her career — and turned 37 a few months ago. Carolina is eight years younger and should have no problem taking care of business. Our money is on the Brazilian to play spoiler against the U.K. fighter.

Luana Carolina to beat Joanne Wood

How To Bet On UFC 286

For a complete list of UFC 286 betting options, you absolutely need to visit one of the bookmakers listed below. Every site you see in the table is there because they rated high in our latest sportsbook review section so you’re money is in good hands no matter where you park your money. Any one of them will offer all types of UFC bets.

With that said, if you need help picking the very best sportsbook to wager on, then consider the current bonuses available at each. The table lists ongoing sign-up bonuses available to new players. If leveraged, these deals could make your UFC 286 bets free of cost so don’t pass ‘em up.

Meet the author

Eric Uribe

Eric has been passionate about sports since he was 10 years old. He brings over 10 years of sports journalism experience to his expert coverage of sports betting. Hailing from the US, Eric leverages his diverse expertise covering sports at all levels – from high schoo...

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