This upcoming UFC Fight Night is loaded with betting opportunities — far beyond just moneylines and over/unders. In fact, UFC Fight Night props are probably the best way to bank off this card. In this article, we’ll break down the best prop bets worth taking on Saturday!
- What: UFC Fight Night
- When: Saturday, September 23
- Where: UFC Apex in Las Vegas
Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot Prop Betting Pick
This is a banger of a matchup. Here we have two lightweights that only have two losses a piece in their career record. The winner could really launch themselves toward title contendership here. Speaking of winning, that’s the Fiziev vs. Gamrot prop we’re looking at. Not only who wins, but how they do so. Here are the options available at UFC’s top online betting sites:
|Gamrot by Stoppage||+400||+400||+400|
|Gamrot by Decision||+280||+280||+280|
|Fiziev by Stoppage||+140||+140||+140|
|Fiziev by Decision||+275||+275||+275|
We should mention that Fiziev is the slight betting favorite from a moneyline perspective. He’s coming off a loss to Justin Gaethje, but it felt more like a moral victory. Gaethje has some of the heaviest hands at lightweight and Fiziev stood toe to toe with him before a split decision loss. Though, some believe Fiziev did enough to score the victory. Either way, there’s no denying Fiziev’s ability to strike. His Muay Thai background makes him lethal in all sorts of directions.
Gamrot presents a style clash though. His specialty is wrestling — and it’s a damn good one at that. Outside of Beneil Dariush, there’s probably not a better wrestler at lightweight. Gamrot is averaging 4.54 takedowns and he’ll need around that to minimize Fiziev’s offense. However, Gamrot also isn’t your typical wrestler who has zero striking ability either. He can stand up there and swing too, just not near the caliber of Fiziev.
We’d be surprised if anyone gets stopped early. Fiziev has stopping power, no doubt, but Gamrot has never once been finished. In recent fights, he’s been put on the ground with strikes but each time he shot right back up.
This is going to decision and if we had to pick a winner, it’s Gamrot by a hair. Our tendency is to pick wrestlers in an evenly-matched fight like this is. We anticipate Gamrot to wear down Fiziev with wrestling and take the win on points.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige Prop Betting Pick
In the co-main event, we’re eyeing the go-the-distance prop bet between Mitchell and Ige. As it stands, the yes is a convincing favorite to hit:
Here again, this is a clash of styles between the two featherweights. Mitchell is the wrestler of the two, and he’s actually a -210 moneyline favorite to win. Ige, however, is the stand-up striker with a kickboxing background.
This is a fight we’re honestly undecided on who wins. Mitchell is coming off a demoralizing loss against Ilia Topuria. Demoralizing because Mitchell looked completely outclassed. He went 1 of 9 on takedown attempts in the loss. And when you have no stand-up game to fall back on like Mitchell, the fight got quickly one-sided without the wrestling.
Ige admittedly isn’t as good as Topuria at defending the takedown, but he’s no slouch either. His takedown defense sits at an ok 56 percent, but he’s also fought higher-caliber opponents than Mitchell. That grizzled experience makes us think Ige could pull off the upset.
This fight feels like it’s going all three rounds. If Mitchell dominates with wrestling, it likely won’t lead to a finish as he has one submission win in his six UFC victories. Ige too isn’t much of a finisher. Take the yes bet on this one.
Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson Prop Betting Pick
We’re going back to the exact outcome bet for Rodriguez vs. Waterson. Same options as last time, as seen below:
|Waterson by Stoppage||+850||+850||+850|
|Waterson by Decision||+350||+350||+350|
|Rodriguez by Stoppage||+300||+300||+300|
|Rodriguez by Decision||-200||-200||-200|
As you can see, oddsmakers favor a victory by Rodriguez — as they should. These two fought in 2021 with Rodriguez earning a decision win so there’s familiarity between the two. But you see, it’s that familiarity that lends us to believe a stoppage is possible.
Rodriguez is a boxer at heart so she won’t be afraid to stand there and swing with her opponent. Speaking of which, Waterson is on a clear decline as she’s lost five of her last six. She’s also a few months away from turning 38 so her chin is likely on its last legs. KO is more likely to happen than bookmakers are letting on. Take the risk and bet Rodriguez by stoppage for plus money.
How To Bet On UFC Fight Night Props?
Every single UFC prop bet on this card — which there are almost 100 of — can be found at one of the bookmakers below. Any one of these sites will have every type of bet you’re looking for, whether it’s this event or one in the future.
Last of all, there are numerous sportsbook promotional bonuses available at the sites. These bonuses are worth hundreds to thousands of dollars in free play. Money like that could bankroll your UFC betting for the next several weeks. If that sounds like a plan, the table below lists our top deals on the market.