Belmont Stakes 2025: Baeza can step into spotlight

Rowan Ward
By , Updated on: Jun 4, 2025 12:00 AM
Belmont Stakes Baeza can step into spotlight

The Triple Crown draws to a close with the 2025 Belmont Stakes on Saturday, June 7. With Belmont Park under construction until 2026, the race is at Saratoga one more time, at 1 ¼ miles on the dirt. Next year, it will return to its traditional course and distance, 1 ½ miles on the Belmont dirt.

The race is rich for the connections of the horses, with a $2 million purse at stake. It’s also a rich opportunity for anyone who likes  betting horse races.

Even at slightly shorter than the traditional distance, the race will still be a thriller, and a true test of class and stamina. The race drew a field of eight top three-year-olds including the first three over the wire in the Kentucky Derby. Derby winner Sovereignty and third-place finisher Baeza make their first start since the Derby; second-place Journalism returned in the Preakness and won in thrilling fashion.

Read on to find out the best horses to play, and the best sites for betting the Belmont Stakes online!

Belmont Morning Line Odds

These are the official entrants for the 2025 Belmont Stakes, along with their post positions, trainers, jockeys, and morning line odds:

  1. Hill Road (Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) - 10/1
  2. Sovereignty (Bill Mott/Junior Alvarado) - 2/1
  3. Rodriguez (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith) - 6/1
  4. Uncaged (Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez) - 30/1
  5. Crudo (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) - 15/1
  6. Baeza (John Shirreffs/Flavien Prat) - 4/1
  7. Journalism (Michael McCarthy/Umberto Rispoli) - 8/5
  8. Heart of Honor (Jamie Osborne/Saffie Osboren) - 30/1

Don’t forget that the morning line is not a guarantee of prices on track, but rather the track’s estimate. It can be good for finding out which horses are expected to take money or not, but there can be late odds swings.

Your best bet is to wager on the Belmont Stakes online. Since online sportsbooks offer fixed-odds wagering on top races like the Belmont, you can lock in the best price just by placing a bet. Then, you know exactly what you’ll get when your horse wins.

The odds for major Belmont Stakes contenders at top online sportsbooks are below:

BovadaBetOnlineBetUS
Journalism+160+185+175
Sovereignty+200+175+200
Baeza+450+400+425
Rodriguez+500+500+525
Hill Road+1000+1600+1200

Belmont Stakes Online Betting

This is the time to choose where to bet the Belmont Stakes online. Since each site offers different incentives that benefit different bettors differently, making the right choice now can help you build your bankroll by hundreds or even thousands of dollars.

Our expert reviews of the best online sports betting sites will help you make a decision quickly and confidently. All the sites we recommend have market-leading odds, trusted payouts, and great user interfaces. The reviews will also help you find which sites have the most profitable rebates, sign-up bonuses, deposit bonuses, and more for your betting style.

These are the best sites for betting the Belmont Stakes online:

Belmont Handicapping

With your betting account all set up, you can now get ready to handicap the Belmont Stakes.

Belmont Stakes Handicapping Tips

The Belmont Stakes is a little different than usual: like last year, instead of being run at 1 ½ miles over the Belmont Park dirt, it will be run at 1 ¼ miles on the dirt at Saratoga due to construction at Belmont Park.

Despite the shorter distance, it is still good to look for horses who have stamina. The Kentucky Derby can shed some light on whether some horses want the distance or not, since the Kentucky Derby is run over the same distance as the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. However, that still means many horses in the field have yet to try the distance. So, pedigree matters.

The Belmont will also be a different race in the sense that the field will be about half the size of the Kentucky Derby. Just like in most 1 ¼-mile races, tactical speed can be an extremely useful running style. A closer isn’t completely shut out, especially if the race has a lot of speed or if a horse has been able to close into a modest pace before. But, make sure they can get a trip, and stay the distance.

Belmont Stakes Best Bet

Baeza is the best bet in the Belmont Stakes. He has had five weeks to freshen up after the Kentucky Derby, a good effort that suggests he has even more room for his star to rise. He came close behind Journalism in his graded-stakes debut, then closed like a freight train in the Kentucky Derby and almost nabbed Journalism for place.

Baeza To win the Belmont Stakes
Bovada
+450

This time, Baeza is in a much better gate, not the parking-lot post he had at Churchill Downs. He is tactical enough to not have to make such a late run as he did in the Kentucky Derby – but also, if he runs into some trouble, he proved in the Derby that the trip could get a little rough and he could stay interested and keep going. In a race many have narrowed down to two horses, he’s a legitimate spoiler.

Belmont Stakes Contenders

Sovereignty has rested up five weeks since he won the Kentucky Derby, and should be ready to go. The presence of both Crudo and Rodriguez could lead to a nice setup for his late-running style, but he doesn’t have to wait until it’s too late to start his run and he can win even when the pace is modest – or even when a good horse, like Journalism in the Derby, gets the jump on him.

Journalism has less rest than his other podium finishers from the Kentucky Derby, but it’s a positive sign that a trainer as cautious as Michael McCarthy gave him the go-ahead to come back on three weeks’ rest after a heroic and no-doubt taxing Preakness. He has proven that he has stamina, he just keeps showing up, and if the pace is modest he may get even a little more of a jump on Sovereignty. In short, it would be a surprise if he missed the board.

Belmont Stakes Longshot

Among the new faces, Crudo has the most upside. Both he and Rodriguez shape as speed horses – but if it’s a race to the front Crudo is a little faster, and also a little better drawn, just outside Rodriguez.

Crudo To win the Belmont Stakes
BetOnline
+2200

Perhaps even more importantly, Crudo’s only race without the lead early was a sprint debut in which he started badly. Rodriguez has had more chance to prove that he’s just one-way speed – whereas, Crudo may still be able to show that he can be tactical now that he’s getting two turns, has gained some maturity, or perhaps both of the above for strong Belmont trainer Todd Pletcher.

Free Belmont Picks

These are the best bets for the 2025 Belmont Stakes:

  • $20 to win - #6 Baeza
  • $1 exacta key - #6 Baeza over #2 Sovereignty, #5 Crudo, and #7 Journalism
  • $1 trifecta key - #6 Baeza with #2 Sovereignty, #5 Crudo, and #7 Journalism

Meet the author

Rowan Ward

Rowan has been a regular at the Chicago tracks for over a decade and has also been to some of the biggest racing events including the Breeders' Cup, Kentucky Derby, and Woodbine Mile. Since then their writing has appeared in their own blog and across the horse racing in...

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