Can anybody figure out what’s going on with the Buffalo Bills? We’re asking for a friend. And for us.
The answer to this question has never been more mission critical. The Bills are scheduled to play the New York Jets in Week 11. Buffalo already lost to them one this season, and New York has proven pesky even without quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the fold. That implies the Bills should be worried as they get set to host Gang Green on Sunday, November 19, at 4:25 p.m. eastern standard time, on the field inside Hallmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. However, when you look at the latest NFL online betting odds, they paint a much different picture:
Always remember to double-check these online NFL betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Bills vs. Jets Week 11 betting odds are accurate entering Wednesday, November 15. That gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments leading into opening kick-off on Sunday afternoon.
On the surface, these Jets vs. Bills betting lines make sense. Buffalo has struggled to protect the ball in recent weeks and execute late in games. But New York lacks firepower on the offensive side. The Jets’ 16 points per game rank 30th, and no team has thrown fewer total touchdowns.
Still, New York continues to hover around .500 for a reason. They have the defensive talent to slow any offense. And recently, the Bills’ own offense hasn’t looked great. Their struggles are so pronounced, in fact, they’ve seen their odds to win Super Bowl XLIII take a nosedive since the opening lines.
So, to sum up, we’re not sure Bills vs. Jets in Week 11 promises a no-brainer outcome. We need to dig into the details to pick a concrete winner. And, well, let’s go ahead and just that.
Are the Buffalo Bills Actually Super Bowl Pretenders Instead of Contenders?
Optimists remain hopeful the Bills can find a higher-end equilibrium. We don’t necessarily blame. Buffalo still has quarterback Josh Allen, depth in the backfield and star wideout Stefon Diggs. Pair that with a defense that’s fifth in points allowed per game, and you’re cooking with fish grease.
However, the recent collapses, eggs and overall no-shows are concerning. The Bills have committed 13 turnovers over their past six games, including four in the Week 10 loss to the Denver Broncos. Incidentally, Buffalo has failed to top 25 points even once during this stretch.
Life won’t get any easier against New York’s defense. The Jets are sacking opposing quarterbacks on 14.46 percent of plays over the past three games—the best mark in the entire NFL. Buffalo’s offensive line doesn’t currently look like it’ll hold up against the pressure. Wilson is the only quarterback who has been sacked more in the red zone.
The Bills may find themselves forced to depend on the run—which New York excels at stopping. The Jets rank fourth in net yards allowed per rush attempt.
Make no mistake, this is a game that could get away from the Bills. We don’t love that they’re 1-to-33.5 to win. At the same time, the Jets offense has not scored a touchdown in 12 quarters. That number is more damning than anything else we’ve discussed. Even if it’s not pretty, Buffalo should be able to out-talent their way to victory.
OSB Prediction: Buffalo Bills (-335)
Do Not Underestimate the New York Jets’ Ability to Keep Games Close
As you can see below, the latest NFL Week 11 point spread betting odds have the Bills beating the Jets by more than a touchdown (sans extra point):
- Buffalo Bills, -6.5 (-122)
- New York Jets, +6.5 (+100)
As you can also see, the betting market is flocking toward the Bills. Seldom do you see a point spread payout even money. This is likely borne out of concern for the Jets offense. As we already mentioned, they have tallied a touchdown in 12 quarters. Wilson is also completing under 53 percent of his passes while notching a lower touchdown rate (2.3 percent) interception percentage (2.9).
Through all the offensive shakiness, though, the Jets have managed to keep games close. Only two of their losses this season have come by more than six points. Conversely, the Bills offense has been rickety and unable to create separation of their own. They haven’t won a game by more than six points since Week 4.
Perhaps this simply means Buffalo is due to break the streak. But that won’t stop us from rolling the dice on New York. A 1-to-1 payout is too enticing to pass on given the Bills’ struggles and Jets’ defensive success.
OSB Prediction: New York Jets, +6.5 (+100)
Get Ready for Some Low-Scoring Football When the Bills Host the Jets
Someone needs to explain the Jets vs. Bills over/under betting odds we have below:
- Over 40 (-105)
- Under 40 (-115)
Although 40 points looks a tad low, it feels ambitious. The Jets have not played in a game that eclipsed this total since Week 5.
Indeed, the Bills offense is likely floating a bulk of the burden. But that’s not inspiring. They’ll need to hit 28 or more points to ensure the “over” covers—something they haven’t done since Week 5.
Feel free to argue that the Jets are due for an offensive breakout. We can’t bring ourselves to agree so long as Wilson is the starting quarterback. If this game clears the “over,” we suspect it’ll be because the Bills (finally) went kaboom and dropped 33-plus points—a total the Jets defense has not allowed at all this season.
OSB Prediction: Under 40 (-115)
Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your 2023 NFL betting: