The Dallas Cowboys have been feasting on clearly inferior opponents in recent weeks. That doesn’t look like it’ll change in Week 12.
Like usual, Dallas will be headlining the NFL Thanksgiving Day showcase, taking on the lowly Washington Commanders at 4:30 p.m. eastern standard time, on the field at AT&T Stadium, in Arlington, Texas. After Dallas beat up on the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers in consecutive weeks, the latest NFL online betting odds are once again expecting them to pick up an easy victory this Thursday, November 23:
As always, please remember to double-check these online NFL betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Cowboys vs. Commanders Week 12 betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, November 21. That gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments leading into opening kick-off on Thursday evening.
For their part, the Commanders have proven to be a tough beat on the road. They are now 3-3 when playing away from home. Washington has also managed to remain within striking distance against elite opponents. Most recently, they were within seven points of both the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks.
Still, the Cowboys offense is a different beast compared to most teams. Their ability to hang points in bunches is largely why they have top-five odds to win the Super Bowl. It’s tempting to pencil them in for a victory on Thanksgiving. But can the Commanders perhaps deliver a short-week surprise?
We Just Can’t Come Up with a Good Case for the Commanders to Beat the Cowboys
The Commanders have now lost four of their past five games. Some of those letdowns, as we already alluded to, were fairly competitive. But Washington just fell to the New York Giants, 31-19, while playing at home in Week 11. Sure, bad games happen. Still, the Giants are maybe the worst team in the NFL right now. They certainly are bottom-of-the-barrel at the offensive end. Giving up 31 points to them, of all teams, suggests Washington might be running out of gas. And that would make sense. Their playoff hopes are nonexistent. The focus will at some point shift to experimentation and prioritizing their 2024 NFL draft odds. That point may be now.
Of course, there’s also just the fact that the Cowboys are really good. After going through a little bit of a lull, Dallas’ offense is firing on all cylinders. They are averaging 37 points per game over the past four weeks, during which time Dak Prescott has played like a superstar.
The problem is that the Cowboys are pretty tough to evaluate in a vacuum. The combined record of the team’s they’ve beaten this season is 16-41. Dallas is still in desperate need of a trademark victory against an elite opponent if we’re going to buy them as contenders. Many analysts, in fact, have declared them frauds.
This issue is moot entering Week 12, though. The Commanders are anything but an elite opponent. There is value in dispatching bad teams, and the Cowboys have by and large done just that. Dallas’ wins have come by an average of 23.7 points. Their three-point win over the Los Angeles Chargers is the only victory that has come by fewer than 20 points, which is simply absurd. From where we’re standing, the Commanders don’t stand a chance.
OSB Prediction: Dallas Cowboys (-590)
Will Dallas Continue Its Streak of Blowout Victories?
Each of the Cowboys’ past two victories have come by at least 22 points. The latest NFL Week 12 point spread betting lines are not exactly predicting the same, but they have set a double-digit margin:
- Dallas Cowboys, -10.5 (-112)
- Washington Commanders, +10.5 (-108)
This is another instance in which we can’t come up with a reasonable case to favor the Commanders. Though they have played in some pretty tight games, the offense is starting to falter, and it wasn’t very good in the first place. They have scored more than 20 points in just two of their past five games. Playing up to snuff won’t get any easier versus the Cowboys, who have the personnel to force turnovers in bunches.
Moreover, the Commanders are 30th in the percentage of drives on which their opponents score. That won’t do them any good against the Cowboys offense currently second in the percentage of drives on which they score.
OSB Prediction: Dallas Cowboys, -10.5 (-112)
Why Have Dallas Cowboys Games Been Such Reliable “Over” Bets?
Dallas is 6-4 against the “over” on the season. More importantly, the Cowboys are 3-1 against the “over” when playing at home. Is there something to this trend? If so, the latest NFL over/under betting lines suggest this will be a higher-scoring affair:
- Over 48.5 (-110)
- Under 48.5 (-110)
The “over” is tempting here. Washington’s offense skews inconsistent, but they are first in total passing attempts. Championing that kind of volume through the air allows you to stumble into multiple end zone scores, even if you aren’t that talented. Combine this with Dallas’ own explosive offense, and there’s a clear path to a final score in the 50s.
We are nevertheless going with the “under.” This says more about our lack of faith in the Commanders’ offense than anything else. They haven’t really faced an elite defense since Week 3, when they dropped just three points on the Buffalo Bills. Now, they did eclipse 30 points on separate occasions against the Philadelphia Eagles. But the reigning NFC champion isn’t nearly as talented on the defensive side this year. Dallas owns one of the best passing defenses in the league. Washington won’t score as readily in this one, paving the way for the “under.”
OSB Prediction: Under 48.5 (-110)
Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your 2023 NFL betting: