2022 French Presidential Election Betting Analysis

2022 French Presidential Election Betting Analysis

French politics are going into overdrive on Sunday, April 10 when the next president will be decided by voters. Whether you’re in the country or not, you should be paying attention for betting purposes. Yes, you can make money off this and we’re giving you the 2022 French Presidential election betting analysis you need to know right here!

The first order of business? Looking at the current betting odds to win the 2022 French election. Several different candidates are on the presidential ballot in 2022, but below we’ve featured the ones favored to win most at online betting sites for politics:

CandidateBovadaMyBookie
Emmanuel Macron-1200-1200
Marine Le Pen+1200+1200
Eric Zemmour+1200+1200
Valerie Pecresse+1400+1400
Jean-Luc Melenchon+4000+4000

How Does French Presidential Election Work?

The great thing about betting on the France Presidential election is you don’t have to be French to profit from this. But if you’re not inside the country, it might literally pay to know how the French presidential works in the first place. So here's a quick rundown of the events that lay ahead.

There are 12 total candidates in the presidential race. To earn their bid on the ballot, the candidate needed to first secure an endorsement from a mayor or councilor located throughout the country. But of the 12 candidates, only five are real threats to win (the ones we outlined in the odds table). That’s because early polls showed that these five were able to garner at least 10 percent of the total vote. The other seven? Not so much which makes them longshots to win out. 

Speaking of the percentage of votes, a candidate must earn at least 50% of the vote to win the presidency. If no candidate receives at least that sum, then a second election will take place Sunday, April 24. This election would be contested between the top two vote-getters from the first election only in what’s effectively a “run-off.”

2022 France President Election Betting Advice

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the geopolitical landscape changed worldwide — including with the French. Voters tend to weigh recent events more so than old ones, thus, we will too when we give you betting advice on the 2022 France Presidential election. Here’s what you need to do at the sportsbook before Sunday:

Bet Macron To Repeat

You saw the betting odds in the beginning, Emmanuel Macron is a STAGGERING favorite to win the upcoming election. For those unfamiliar with the French scene, Macron is actually the incumbent. But if he is to win, he’ll become the first sitting French president to win re-election since Jacques Chirac in 2002. That 20-year-drought is quite the trend so what makes Macron such a betting favorite?

Well, we don’t know. We mean, objectively speaking, there’s little Macron has done over the five years he’s been in office that has been huge hit with French citizens. A diesel tax? Nope. His handling of COVID-19? Mixed. Avoiding any presidential debates and campaigning this cycle? Conservative.

What Macron has going for him, in our eyes, is a sense of stability. A two-year stretch that’s involved a deadly pandemic and now a war inside European borders has made many in France fear more change. Rather than see change with a tint of hope, it’s viewed as potentially dangerous given recent events. This is a powerful emotion, which makes Macron a must-bet in this scenario. While his lopsided betting line lacks value, it’s just a no-brainer bet right now.

Emmanuel Macron to win the 2022 French Presidential election
-1200
MyBookie

Take A Flyer Bet On Le Pen

If there’s a darkhorse candidate to throw some money on, it’s Marine Le Pen. Most polls have her surging, which is never a bad proposition to be in at this stage of the game (remember, voting is a recency bias thing).

Ironically enough, Le Pen battled Macron in 2017, an election she lost by 32 percent. But as we said before, Macron has been a middling performer as president. It’s completely feasible to see Le Pen “make up” many of those lost votes since Maxeon has done little to appease previous voters anyway.

Le Pen’s campaign built on easing the cost of living for the French population has struck a chord amidst a time of global inflation and higher-costing exports due to the Russia-Ukraine war. If Le Pen can make it to the run-off, which most believe will indeed happen, then she could steal the win given her recent poll momentum and two extra weeks of campaigning. Place a side bet on her, especially at these steep odds.

Marine Le Pen to win the 2022 French Presidential election
+1200
MyBookie

How To Bet On Politics?

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