Florida Sports Betting Action Reportedly Exceeding Expectations At One Anniversary

Details on the Florida sports betting have proven scarce since its launch. And, well, it isn’t hard to understand why.

Nevertheless, it seems as if the market is exceeding expectations. And yes, this is a big deal.

First, though, let us explore why figuring out the state's gambling revenue is so hard.

Why We Don't Have More Data on Sports Wagering in Florida

For starters, sports betting in Florida is not commercialized like it is in other states. It is exclusively a tribal operation. And not only that, but it is a one tribe operation. The Seminole Tribe has a monopoly on Florida sports betting operations—and will for quite some time. 

Since The Sunshine State is not dealing with public corporations, they do not report revenue in the same public manner. When it comes to sports betting in New York, and sports betting in Ohio and the like, you are going to get monthly and annual reports. Florida sports betting will invariably be different.

In fact, we could be hard-pressed for revenue overall. Consider how sports betting in Wisconsin works. We do not get monthly or annual updates on how much money is generated from sports wagering. The circumstances in Florida are similar. They are just on a larger scale.

Beyond that, the timeline for sports betting in Florida has created plenty of complications. Operations initially launched at the end of 2021, a little more than three years after online sports betting in the United States could be legalized on a state-by-state basis. But a lawsuit brought by West Flagler Associates, a gaming company that operates in the region, resulted in years of litigation. As such, the Seminole Tribe wound up shuddering their sports betting services for about two years. They did not relaunch until November 2023.

Of course, none of this means The Sunshine State’s sports betting revenue will be totally opaque. On the contrary, now that one year has passed since the Florida sports betting relaunch, we are starting to get metrics on how it’s going. And if the initial reports are any indication, it is obliterating expectations.

Is Florida Sports Betting Already a Multibillion Dollar Business?

Back when mobile sports betting in Florida was first set to launch, a business and sports management professor at Rollins College, Keith Buckley, projected that $2 billion in wagers would be placed each month in The Sunshine State. Recently, though, he indicated that he might have undersold those estimations. As he tells Central Florida Public Media’s Talia Blake:

“The expected revenues, I think, is going to be about $13 billion in profits, and the expectation of the betting revenues over the next 10 years in Florida alone is very significant…What we do know is that it's a very vibrant industry that we know anecdotally, that people are using it. And as we go through the college football and the NFL football season, right now is [an] extremely popular [time to bet].”

To be clear, when Buckley says more than $2 billion worth of bets will pass through Florida each month, he’s not talking about revenue. That is determined after sportsbooks in Florida pay out winning wagers. What’s left over is profit for the Seminole Tribe, and they will then give The Sunshine State a percentage of those earnings. 

Factoring this in, Buckley’s comments come as good news for state officials and, of course, the Seminole Tribe. At the same time, his projections cannot be taken as gospel. As Blake adds: “It’s difficult to quantify how many people are legally betting in Florida, as the Seminole Tribe has yet to release data that shows how many of its app users are actually placing bets—and how much.”

Without concrete figures, it is tough to put Buckley’s estimations to the test. But there might be answers to glean from the performance of other states.

Can The Sports Betting Handle in Florida Really Top $24 Billion Per Year?

Let us use Buckely’s initial $2 billion per month forecast as our baseline. If this is accurate, it means that more than $24 billion is being spent betting on sports in Florida. That is a monstrous number—so much so you cannot help but wonder whether it is feasible.

By looking at markets with similar populations, we get a sense of where the Florida sports betting handle might land. Granted, this can be tricky. Florida has the third largest population in the country. The only two states in front of it are California and Texas, neither of which allow sports betting. (Note: The push to legalize sports betting in California is expected to continue next year. Texas’ outlook is more unclear.)

That leaves online sports betting in New York as the best analog. They rank fourth in total population. Though they still trail Florida’s head count by about 3.1 million, this is the closest we’re going to get to a fair comparison. 

So far, in 2024, the New York sports betting handle has averaged $1.8 billion per month. Now, their population sits at about 19.5 million. If we use their per-capita handle and apply it to Florida’s population of 22.6 million, we get a rough estimate. This number checks in at $2.1 billion per month. Extrapolate that to an entire year, and you get $25 billion in bets placed on an annual basis.

Just based on this, it sounds like whatever data Buckley uses is on the right track. The Florida sports betting market absolutely has the customer base to rip off more than $2 billion in wagers per month. 

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