Florida Sports Betting Projections Keep Rising

Unlike other states, the Florida sports betting market does not release regular revenue reports. The Seminole Tribe is not required to as part of its gaming compact. While this leaves a layer mystery, we don’t need monthly updates to know that sports betting in Florida continues to exceed expectations.

Officials in The Sunshine State have long alluded to it. The push from companies offering alternative options like prediction markets and daily fantasy sports equate to further proof. Heck, even the most recent lawsuit alleging that online Florida sports betting violates the constitution shows how prevalent the industry has become.

It is nevertheless convenient when a concrete number can contextualize what’s happening. By and large, all we have to go off are the initial projections from the 30-year gaming compact the Seminole Tribe signed back in 2021.

Fortunately, business and sports management professor at Rollins College Keith Buckley put figures to the Florida sports betting market. And he projects that it will generate $13 billion in revenue for that state.

Why Florida Sports Betting is Obliterating Expectations

You read the above line correctly. That is $13 billion…with a caps-lock “B.” Here is Buckely’s full explanation, courtesy of Central Public Florida Media:

“‘This relationship is set until 2050 so for the next 25 years, at least, it's pretty much going to be run by the Seminole Tribe,’ he said. ‘And quite frankly, the expectation from taxes and revenues will be quite high. I would expect, as the revenues get higher, for there to be more lawsuits with people wanting to get a part of the action, for no better term.’

"Before the start of mobile sports betting in Florida, Buckley told Central Florida Public Media that an expected $2 billion in bets would pass through the Sunshine state each month. Now, he said, although there's still a significant illegal betting market, people in the state are exceeding expectations for legal bets. ‘The expected revenues, I think, is going to be about $13 billion in profits, and the expectation of the betting revenues over the next 10 years in Florida alone is very significant,’ he said.”

A $13 billion projection qualifies as a massive departure from initial forecasts. From what we can gather, Buckley is referencing the first 10 years of operations. According White and Williams LLP, the original projects at the time of the gaming compact guaranteed $500 million per year for the first half-decade of Florida sports betting. Some outlets, meanwhile, expected revenue would hit $6 billion by the 10-year market.

If The Sunshine State hits $13 billion in revenue, it will be more than double what anyone anticipates. That is…absurd. But should we really be surprised?

We Should Have Seen The Success of Sports Betting in Florida Coming

Revenue projections for sports betting in the United States are getting annihilated left and right. The addition of the online element, in particular, has proven especially big-time.

More than 95 percent of all legal wagers processed in the USA are estimated to run through an online betting site. That share is larger than anyone initially predicted. It is also only climbing. The universal accessibility of being able to bet from anywhere, on your phone, with just the click of a button cannot be overstated.

Whether this is good or bad is a point of contention among policymakers. Financially speaking, it is a boon for states with legal sports betting. It is also, however, contributing to the rise of reported gambling issues. Make no mistake, real discussions deserve to be had here. Yet, for the Florida sports betting market specifically, the stage has always been set to blow expectations out of the water.

The original projections did not account for mass Florida online sports betting. Remember, the gaming compact between the Seminole Tribe and state says gambling must be limited to tribal properties. But in partnership with Hard Rock Bet, the Seminoles offer online sports betting to every legal-age resident in the state—no matter where they are.

This is accomplished via a unique interpretation. The Seminole Tribe argues that the servers operating their Florida sports betting app are on tribal property, which makes the entire app an extension of that property. Just like Professor Buckley predicted, this has resulted in lawsuits. To date, though, the Seminole Tribe’s interpretation is holding up. And in doing so, it assures accessibility the Florida sports betting market wasn't thought to have.

It Will Be Interesting to Track Florida’s Growth From Here

These new projections, of course, likely assume a level of growth in the Florida sports betting scene. That is reasonable upon first consideration. But the structure of the market can also make it difficult to forecast.

The Seminole Tribe holds gambling exclusivity as part of its gaming compact. Put another way: They are the only game in the state. Short of visiting neighboring states or betting with offshore sites, residents have only one option.

This is an excellent position for the Seminole Tribe. They do not have to worry about competing for a chunk of the Florida sports betting market share. They are the market.

At the same time, a one-operator show could complicate larger market growth. Without any competing entities, the Seminole Tribe’s customer base has an artificial cap. This is true for every market, but Florida could reach its ceiling sooner without various operators to push each other or offer alternatives.

That may not be a problem—at least not immediately. After all, even if Professor Buckley’s projections over-inflate Florida’s earning potential, it doesn’t change the overlying point. Sports betting in The Sunshine State is an overwhelming financial success.

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your sports betting needs: