Kentucky Derby 2024: Honor Marie can step up at the right price

Rowan Ward
By , Updated on: May 2, 2024 08:00 PM
Kentucky Derby 2024: Honor Marie can step up at the right price

Betting the Kentucky Derby is one of the highlights of the year for anyone who likes to wager on horse racing or sports, and the race is coming up Saturday, May 4 at Churchill Downs. 20 of the best three-year-olds in the country will go 1 ¼ miles for some of the best prizes in racing: a $5 million purse, the blanket of roses, and a place in horse racing history forever.

You can be a part of the Kentucky Derby by betting it online! With the biggest field in American horse racing, the payoffs are always great for anyone who solves the puzzle correctly. And, this is the best place to get expert analysis of the horses, and to find out the best places for horse racing betting online!

Betting the 2024 Kentucky Derby Online

Before choosing what horses you want to bet, make sure to choose the best place to bet the Kentucky Derby online. There are many options, but our online betting experts are here to make a confident and profitable decision easy. All of our recommended choices have the basics: trusted payouts, great user interfaces, and market-leading odds on racing and sports all year long.

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Kentucky Derby Field

This is the official field for the 2024 Kentucky Derby including post positions, trainers, jockeys, and morning-line odds:

  1. Dornoch (Danny Gargan/Luis Saez) - 20/1
  2. Sierra Leone (Chad Brown/Tyler Gaffalione) - 3/1
  3. Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek/Brian Hernandez, Jr.) - 20/1
  4. Catching Freedom (Brad Cox/Flavien Prat) - 8/1
  5. Catalytic (Saffie Joseph, Jr./Jose Ortiz) - 30/1
  6. Just Steel (D. Wayne Lukas/Keith Asmussen) - 20/1
  7. Honor Marie (Whit Beckman/Ben Curtis) - 20/1
  8. Just a Touch (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux) - 10/1
  9. Encino (Brad Cox/Axel Concepcion) - 20/1
  10. T O Password (Daisuke Takayanagi/Kazushi Kimura) - 30/1
  11. Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi/Ryusei Sakei) - 10/1
  12. Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen/Joel Rosario) - 20-1
  13. West Saratoga (Larry Demeritte/Jesus Castanon) - 50/1
  14. Endlessly (Michael McCarthy/Umberto Rispoli) - 30/1
  15. Domestic Product (Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz) - 30/1
  16. Grand Mo the First (Victor Barboza, Jr./Emisael Jaramillo) - 50/1
  17. Fierceness (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) - 5/2
  18. Stronghold (Phil D'Amato/Antonio Fresu) - 20/1
  19. Resilience (Bill Mott/Junior Alvarado) - 20/1
  20. Society Man (Danny Gargan/Frankie Dettori) - 50/1
  21. Epic Ride (John Ennis/Adam Beschizza) - ALSO ELIGIBLE
  22. Mugatu (Jeff Engler/Joe Talamo) - ALSO ELIGIBLE

Epic Ride and Mugatu will only draw in, in that order of priority, if horses scratch from the main field before 9:00 a.m. Friday morning, when Kentucky Derby betting begins.

Keep in mind that the morning line isn’t a guarantee for on-track odds, but rather the track handicapper’s estimate of what the board will look like. Betting online is better because you can lock in the best price in major races like the Kentucky Derby just by placing a bet. Then, you can watch the race confident in what you’ll get if you win!

These are the odds at the top of the Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby Handicapping Tips

When evaluating the horses in the Run for the Roses, one of the best Kentucky Derby handicapping tips to keep in mind is that the winner of the Kentucky Derby usually runs very well in an important final prep race. It is best to pick a horse who has been a winner at age 3, and comes into the Derby on a first- or second-place finish in a major 100-point prep.

Make sure to pick a horse who has good stamina in his pedigree. No horse in the Kentucky Derby has tried 1 1/4 miles, but that is longer than most American horse races. If their parents have produced horses with a lot of stamina, or showed Classic stamina themselves, it is more likely that their progeny will run well in the Kentucky Derby.

Be sure to pay attention to Churchill Downs form as well. If a horse has run well at Churchill Downs, they are likely to run well at Churchill Downs again. If they have run poorly at Churchill Downs, it often suggests they do not like the track and will run poorly in the Derby.

Since the points system began in 2013, the first six winners were favorites. However, the last five Kentucky Derby winners have been longer shots. But, even when bombers like Rich Strike or Country House win the race, favorites have still done well in recent editions of the race: no points-era favorite has been out of the superfecta.

Kentucky Derby Best Bet

The best bet in the Kentucky Derby is Honor Marie. Though he comes into the Derby off a second-place finish, he found his best in the third start of his form cycle last year with a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs, and should come into peak form there this year. He looked strong in the Louisiana Derby (G2), and should get an excellent pace setup with so much speed signed on for the Derby.

Honor Marie To win the Kentucky Derby
+2000
BetOnline

Honor Marie should also thrive on the stretch out to 1 ¼ miles. Being by stoutly-bred A.P. Indy son Honor Code out of a half-sister to a Group 1 winner at 1 ¾ miles, he has upside at the Derby distance and beyond.

Kentucky Derby Market Leaders

Sierra Leone will probably be the second-favorite in the Kentucky Derby, but he deserves to be favored. He is a top-class horse, a nose away from perfect. He has been excellent in both starts at age three, including an impressive sustained rally in the Blue Grass. Sierra Leone will benefit from the hot pace, and even though he drew the 2 hole, he should be able to drop in somewhere clean.

Sierra Leone To win the Kentucky Derby
+400
Bovada

It is also worth considering Catching Freedom, the one horse who beat best bet Honor Marie last out in Louisiana. He is a consistent horse who is getting better as the distances get longer, and will benefit from the sharp pace. And, jockey Flavien Prat always shows up in the Run for the Roses: in six Derby tries, he has been on the board five times.

Kentucky Derby Bet-Againsts

Sometimes it’s just as good to have favorites to bet against as it is to have affirmative choices, and two horses on the shorter-priced side are worth fading completely.

Fierceness, the likely favorite, is brilliant at best but also inconsistent. He drew fairly well, outside the rest of the speed (unless Epic Ride draws in), but even with such a nice draw he started roughly and came up empty in the Holy Bull (G3). And, the front end will sizzle with him, Dornoch on the rail, and Track Phantom going blinkers-on. As the Kentucky Derby favorite, he is an underlay.

It’s also wise to be skeptical of Forever Young. He may be Japan’s best Derby hope to date, and the pace setup will suit him fine. But, he hasn’t faced the class of the Kentucky Derby yet, and the poor record of UAE Derby horses in the Kentucky Derby raises alarm bells at a short price.

Kentucky Derby Longshots

Encino took a nontraditional route to the Run for the Roses, winning the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway before winning his first-ever dirt race, the Lexington. Though his inexperienced jockey raises questions, Encino is versatile enough to run well from up front or midpack, and everything about his pedigree screams classic-quality stamina.

Just Steel dances every dance. He ran all four points preps at Oaklawn this winter, finishing second in three of them. With some versatility as to where he can sit, along with the ability to keep running well as the distances get longer, he is an interesting choice for underneath rungs of intra-race exotic bets.

Kentucky Derby Best Bets

You know where you are going to bet on the Kentucky Derby online, and which horses you are going to focus on with your wagers. All you need to do now is the most fun part of all: place your bets!

These are the expert bets for the 2024 Kentucky Derby:

  • $20 win/place/show: #7 Honor Marie
  • $1 Exacta Key: #7 Honor Marie with #2 Sierra Leone, #4 Catching Freedom
  • $1 Trifecta Key: #7 Honor Marie with #2 Sierra Leone, #4 Catching Freedom, #6 Just Steel, #9 Encino
  • $1 Superfecta Key: #7 Honor Marie with #2 Sierra Leone, #4 Catching Freedom, #6 Just Steel, #9 Encino
Honor Marie To win the Kentucky Derby
+2000
BetUS

Meet the author

Rowan Ward

Rowan has been a regular at the Chicago tracks for over a decade and has also been to some of the biggest racing events including the Breeders' Cup, Kentucky Derby, and Woodbine Mile. Since then their writing has appeared in their own blog and across the horse racing in...

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