Pacers to upset Thunder in Game 4 and take stranglehold of NBA Finals

What: NBA Picks
Who: Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers
When: Friday, June 13, 8:30 p.m.

Indiana's bench came alive in Game 3, helping the Pacers to a 116-107 victory over Oklahoma City. Led by Bennedict Mathurin's game-high 27 points, Rick Carlise's club outscored the Thunder's bench 48-19 to a seize a 2-1 series lead in the NBA Finals.

Can OKC rebound on Friday night or are the Pacers headed towards the franchise's first NBA title? Let's look at the latest betting lines for Game 4. Odds are subject to change.

	Spread	Money Line	Total Points
Oklahoma City Thunder	-6.5 (-100)	-230	Ov 225.5 (-110)
Indiana Pacers	+6.5 (-120)	+195	Un 225.5 (-110)

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Pacers vs Thunder Betting Trends

Indiana is a 6.5-point home underdog at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, where they are 7-2 in the postseason. The Pacers are 23-24-3 against the spread on their home court in the regular season and playoffs combined. That includes a 6-6-1 ATS mark as home dogs.

A huge favorite entering the NBA Finals, Oklahoma City is now just 4-4 on the road this postseason. As away favorites, they are 23-20-2 ATS.

The over/under for Friday's game is set at 225.5 points. Game 1 went under that total (221 combined points), Game 2 went way over (230 points), and Game 3 went slightly under (223 points). The OVER is 26-24 in Indiana home games, and 24-23-1 in Thunder road contests.

Players this century to score 25+ in a Finals game at 22 or younger:

Bennedict Mathurin
Kawhi Leonard
LeBron James
Tony Parker
Kobe Bryant pic.twitter.com/arYhHZiUrZ

— NBA (@NBA) June 12, 2025

Pacers depth shines through

Just as they were before the series started, Indiana was counted out following a 123-107 loss to OKC in Game 2. However, the Pacers' depth took center stage in Game 3, turning the NBA Finals on its head.

Tyrese Haliburton delivered a star performance with 22 points, 11 assists and 9 rebounds, and Pascal Siakam added 21 points, 6 boards and 4 assists. However, the story of the game was Bennedict Mathurin, who scored 27 points off the bench.

T.J. McConnell also finished with 10 points, five assists and five steals, and Obi Toppin had 8 points and 6 rebounds while playing ferocious defense.

OKC in trouble?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 24 points, his lowest-scoring output since a Game 3 defeat to Minnesota. The 2025 NBA MVP was limited to only three points on 1-of-3 shooting with no assists in the fourth quarter.

Playing against full-court pressure, the Thunder missed nine of its final 10 shots from the floor and were outscored 32-18 in the final frame.

OKC fought back from a 2-1 deficit in their second-round series against the Nuggets to win in seven games. To even up the NBA Finals, they'll have to limit turnovers after having 19 of them in Game 3.

From one Pacer to another 💙

Reggie Miller and Tyrese Haliburton after the Pacers' Game 3 win 🙌 pic.twitter.com/5bzj0CHmNG

— ESPN (@espn) June 12, 2025

Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 4 Picks

Bench players always seem to play better at home - which makes Indiana's home court advantage even bigger in Game 4.

Oklahoma City is still a -230 favorite to win the NBA Championship after racking up a league-leading 68 wins in the regular season. But we're taking the Pacers to not only cover at home (+6.5) but win Game 4 (+190) outright with the OVER 225.5.

Indiana Pacers To win vs Thunder