Bills vs Buccaneers Picks | 11-16-25

What: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills
Where: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY
When: 1:00 PM EST, Sunday, November 16th, 2025

Buffalo committed three turnovers in a 30-13 blowout loss to the Dolphins on Sunday to fall two games behind the Patriots in the AFC East. In Week 11, the Bills will host a Buccaneers team looking to rebound from a 28-23 defeat to New England.

Which playoff contender will bounce back this Sunday? Let's look at the latest betting lines for Bills vs Buccaneers. Odds are subject to change.

	Spread	Money Line	Total Points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+5.5 (-110)	+225	Ov 49.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills	-5.5 (-110)	-275	Un 49.5 (-110)

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Bills favored at home

Buffalo is a 5.5-point home favorite over Tampa Bay on Sunday. The Bills were riding high entering week 10 with back-to-back wins over the Panthers and Chiefs. However, their offense sputtered in the Miami heat. Josh Allen threw a pick and lost a fumble in the franchise's first loss to the Dolphins since Week 3 of the 2022 season.

Tight end Dalton Kincaid left the contest with a hamstring injury and James Cook was held to just 53 yards on 13 carries. However, the Bills' league-leading rushing attack should rebound against a Buccaneers team that allowed TD runs of 55 and 69 yards to the Patriots.

Dolphins S Minkah Fitzpatrick and CB Jack Jones stop Bills WR Khalil Shakir short of goal line

📸: Sam Navarro, Imagn pic.twitter.com/3EkvJJdz3H

— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) November 9, 2025

Buccaneers are beat up

The OVER/UNDER for Sunday's contest is set at 49.5 points. Buffalo is the sixth-highest scoring team in the NFL (27.6) while the Buccaneers rank 13th (24.4). With injuries mounting, however, Tampa Bay's offense is averaging just 18.3 PPG in their last three with losses against both the Patriots and Lions.

Star rookie Emeka Egbuka made six receptions for 115 yards and a score versus New England. Sean Tucker outplayed Rachaad White, running for 53 yards on nine carries, but Bucky Irving could be back for Week 11.

Vulnerable defenses

Buffalo has the third-worst rushing defense in the league, permitting 147.6 yards per game. Sean McDermott's club has been far better limiting opponents through the air, allowing only 170.2 yards per contest (3rd in NFL).

Todd Bowles' pass defense ranks in the bottom ten (233.3 yards per game allowed). The Bucs also struggled to get pressure on Drake Maye, who had suffered 16 sacks in the previous three contests. Tampa Bay sacked him just once on 32 dropbacks.

Baker Mayfield did NOT sound happy after the Bucs loss to New England:

“You have to have some pride … the fear of messing up for your teammates when we talk about something, you have to have that responsibility and accountability for the guys around you and get it fixed.” pic.twitter.com/r3TDBYF6de

— Josh Hill (@jdavhill) November 9, 2025

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks

Baker Mayfield was famously taken first overall in the 2018 NFL draft, six spots before the Bills selected Josh Allen. With a permanent chip on his shoulder after being cast off by Cleveland, the Bucs' diminutive quarterback will bring his 'A' game to Buffalo.

Take Tampa Bay to cover (+5.5) on the road with the OVER 49.5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover vs Bills

+5.5

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