Benching Zach Wilson Won't Save New York Jets vs. the Miami Dolphins

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Apr 9, 2024 08:00 PM
Benching Zach Wilson Won't Save New York Jets vs. the Miami Dolphins

NFL football on a Friday? Seriously? Seriously. The NFL will follow up their 2023 Thanksgiving Day slate of games with a Friday night matchup between the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. Kick-off is scheduled for 6 p.m. eastern standard time, and the game will take place on the field at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Before we get to our Jets vs. Dolphins predictions, here are the latest NFL online betting odds for this Week 12 matchup:

Miami Dolphins-460+360New York Jets

Always remember to double-check these online NFL betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Dolphins vs. Jets Week 12 betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, November 21. That gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments leading into opening kick-off on Friday night.

After dropping three straight games, the Jets aren’t exactly playing for much as they enter Week 12. They just benched quarterback Zach Wilson. And with Aaron Rodgers still recovering from an Achilles injury, New York is slated to start Tim Boyle at QB against the Dolphins

The NFL betting markets have responded accordingly. Not only are the Dolphins heavy favorites to win in Week 12, but they have seen all of their NFL betting futures significantly improve since Week 11. But are they the locks to win against the Jets that oddsmakers have painted them to be? Let’s find out.

The Miami Dolphins Must be on High Alert When They Take on the New York Jets

The Dolphins look the part of a Super Bowl contender on paper—for the most part. They have won 70 percent of their games, and the numbers say they have the best offense in the NFL. And yet, through it all, they still lack a marquee victory. Not only are they 0-3 against opponents above .500, but they have struggled versus top-tier defenses. In the three games they’ve played opposite top-12 defenses, Miami is averaging 18 points per game—well below their season average of 30.5.

New York obviously isn’t above .500. But they’re closer than you’d think after losing Aaron Rodgers (probably) for the season. More to the point, the Jets’ defense still verges on elite. They are 11th in points allowed per game, and according to Defensive Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), New York actually has a top-five defense overall. 

What’s more, the Jets have excelled when it comes to pass prevention. They are fifth in net yards allowed per passing attempt, 10th in passing touchdowns surrendered and eighth in interceptions forced. Their 7.58 sack percentage is a middling 13th on the year, but they are still skilled at putting pressure on the quarterback and coaxing them into iffy decisions.

Tua Tagovailoa is elite. He won’t be someone the Jets can rattle with pressure alone. But it’s something to consider in the context of this game.

Granted, this isn’t nearly enough for us to pick the Jets to pull off an upset. The Dolphins have taken care of business against opponents with losing records, even if they aren’t blowing them out. Facing New York should be no exception.

OSB Prediction: Miami Dolphins (-460)

Miami Dolphins To beat the New York Jets

Is the Jets Defense on the Decline Entering Week 12?

New York’s defense has kept the team in many games, including some against elite offenses. The latest Week 12 NFL point spread betting lines, however, have opted for a larger scoring margin:

  • Miami Dolphins, -9.5 (-110)
  • New York Jets, +9.5 (-110)

This is where the Jets’ defensive impact comes into play. They can keep games close simply by getting opposing offenses off the field. Then again, they have shown cracks and fissures against higher-end passing attacks, despite how well they’ve generally defended. New York lost by 21 points to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 9 and then by 26 points to the Buffalo Bills in Week 11. The Dolphins are better than both of those offenses.

On top of that, Miami is starting to show progress on the defensive side. They’ve held opponents to 20 points or less in three of their past four games. That advancement has shined brightest when stopping the rush, and it’s an element that should give the Dolphins enough of a cushion to cover against New York.

OSB Prediction: Miami Dolphins, -9.5 (-110)

Miami Dolphins To cover the point spread against the New York Jets

Oddsmakers are Catching on to the Dolphins’ Improved Defense

Even with Miami facing an offense as incompetent as the one field by New York, you’d still expect the over/under to check in around 45 or more points. But that’s not the case. Here are the latest over/under betting odds for Jets vs. Dolphins:

  • Over 40.5 (-105)
  • Under 40.5 (-115)

Linemakers appear to be adjusting for Miami’s sturdier defense. Remember how we mentioned that they held three of their last four opponents to under 21 points? Well, two of those teams were the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles—legitimate offenses the Dolphins were able to stop. 

Going up against an inexperienced Jets QB should be catnip for Miami’s defense relative to how they’ve played lately. New York might opt to lean on the rush, but that merely plays further into the Dolphins’ strengths.

Sure, Miami is capable of clearing this “over” on its own. But the Jets defense has allowed more than 30 points just once all season. And even if the Dolphins drop 31, there’s no guarantee an emaciated New York offense has the firepower to hold up its end of the bargain.

OSB Prediction: Over 40.5 (-110)

Jets and Dolphins To score under 40.5 combined points

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your 2023 NFL betting:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan Favale leverages over 12 years of sports journalism expertise in his role as New York staff writer. He provides in-depth analysis across the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, tennis, NASCAR, college basketball, and sports betting. Dan co-hosts the popular Hardwood Knocks NBA podc...

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