Are you ready to talk about which NFL player will win the Super 58 MVP award? Well, you better be. The odds to win the Super Bowl 58 MVP honor are officially live. And with the San Francisco 49ers and reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs set to wager battle on Sunday, February 11, it’s time to have an honest and in-depth discussion about the best bets to win Super Bowl 58 MVP.
- What: Super Bowl 58
- Matchup: San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Sunday, February 11, 2024
- Time: 6:30 p.m. eastern standard time
- Where: Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada
- Favorite to Win Super Bowl 58 MVP: Patrick Mahomes (+130)
This conversation must begin, as ever, by understanding what to look for in a Super Bowl MVP prediction. The vast majority of winners over the years have met two main forms of criteria: They hail from the Super Bowl champion, and they are almost always a quarterback. Not surprisingly, the latest online Super Bowl 58 prop betting lines peg both Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs (+130) and Brock Purdy of the 49ers (+225) as the two leading MVP favorites:
| Super Bowl 58 MVP |  |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +130 |
| Brock Purdy | +225 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +450 |
| Travis Kelce | +1200 |
| Deebo Samuel | +2200 |
| Field (Any Other Player) | +2200 |
| Isaiah Pacheco | +2500 |
| Rashee Rice | +5000 |
| George Kittle | +6600 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | +6600 |
| Chris Jones | +7500 |
| Nick Bosa | +8000 |
| George Karlaftis | +15000 |
| Fred Warner | +15000 |
| L'jarius Sneed | +15000 |
| Willie Gay | +20000 |
| Marques Valdez-Scantling | +20000 |
| Mike Edwards | +25000 |
| Dre Greenlaw | +25000 |
| Dre Greenlaw | +25000 |
Click here for more Super Bowl betting information.
Definitely remember to double-check these Super Bowl 58 betting odds right up until you submit your wager. Our Super Bowl 58 MVP betting odds are accurate entering Thursday, February 1. That gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments prior to opening kick-off on Sunday, February 11, at 6:30 p.m. EST.
On the bright side, you needn’t worry about much movement. Neither Mahomes nor Purdy is moving out of a top-two position. However, the 49ers remain favored to beat the Chiefs. So, in theory, you could see Purdy overtake the top spot.
Then again, the gap between San Francisco’s QB1 and Kansas City’s QB1 is so large that it probably won’t be bridged. But does that mean Mahomes is actually the best bet to win Super Bowl 58 MVP? Does it make more sense to go with Purdy? Which non-QBs could sneak into the discussion? It’s time to dig deep in the Super Bowl XLIII MVP betting discussion.
Should Patrick Mahomes Be Favored to Win Super Bowl 58 MVP?
This question reads like a no-brainer upon first consideration. Patrick Mahomes is the best player taking the field in Super Bowl 58. He has also won the Super Bowl MVP award in both of the Chiefs’ title runs since he took the reins. And knowing how often QBs take home the honor, why shouldn’t Mahomes be favored?
We don’t have a great argument against picking Mahomes. Except, of course, when focusing on the outcome of the game. The Super Bowl MVP award basically always goes to a player from the winning side. In fact, since the inception of the honor, only one player has earned Super Bowl MVP while playing for the losing side: Chuck Howley of the Dallas Cowboys…all the way back in 1970.
Make no mistake, this matters. So while Mahomes is a deserving investment, we wouldn’t recommend taking him unless you also believe the Chiefs will beat the 49ers.
Is Brock Purdy Really the Best MVP Bet on the 49ers?
The betting odds to win Super Bowl 58 MVP suggest the answer to this question is a resounding “yes.” Purdy pays out at 2.25-to-1. The next closet member of the 49ers is Christian McCaffrey (+450), who pays out 4.5-to-1.
Indeed, Purdy is a good bet to win Super Bowl MVP simply because he plays the quarterback position. In the 25 Super Bowls that have been played since 1998, 16 of the MVP winners have played quarterback. That’s nearly two-thirds of the field.
With this in mind, we’re still a little surprised Purdy isn’t facing stiffer competition for one of the top two spots. He’s completing barely 60 percent of his passes during the postseason, and he has thrown fewer than two touchdowns in essentially half his games this season.
On the flip side, Purdy is no stranger to big-time performances. He rarely tosses under 250 passing yards, and the 49ers rely on him to get their most potent weapons the ball and to limit turnovers. Purdy is, without question, a viable Super Bowl 58 MVP candidate.
The Best Non-QB Bet to Win Super Bowl 58 MVP Is…
Many bettors will gravitate towards Travis Kelce (+1200) or Deebo Samuel (+2200) here. That’s fair. When QBs do not win Super Bowl MVP, the honor tends to wind up with a premier pass-catcher.
On the nine occasions where a QB didn’t win the award since 1998, five of the victors were wide receivers. That technically doesn’t bode well for Kelce, as a tight end. But Mahomes treats him as a wide receiver No. 1, so the difference is immaterial.
And yet, ahead of the big game, we find ourselves tilting towards Christian McCaffrey (+450). Running backs seldom earn consideration. Especially in this era. But McCaffrey features heavily in the 49ers’ passing game. If San Francisco wins on the back of an offensive explosion, there’s a good chance it’s because he’s tallied 100-plus yards from scrimmage to go along with multiple touchdowns.
Best Dark Horse to Win MVP
Sign us up for Rashee Rice of the Chiefs (+5000) and his 50-to-1 payout.
During a year in which Kansas City’s pass-catchers have struggled with dropped receptions, Rice has emerged as Mahomes’ second favorite weapon. Over the past five games, the wideout is averaging nearly nine targets. And that number could climb in the Super Bowl. Not only will the Chiefs likely saddle Mahomes with more throwing volume, but the Niners may sell out to cover Kelce. The latter would free up Rice to have a big game—big enough to win Super Bowl 58 MVP.
Super Bowl 58 MVP Prediction
If you don’t know already, we’re picking the Chiefs to win Super Bowl 58. And when operating under that assumption, we have to go with Patrick Mahomes (+130).
What else can we say about him? He’s the best quarterback in the game. And as people bemoan the Chiefs’ passing attack, Mahomes has ratcheted up his level of play through three postseason games.
If and when Kansas City wins their third Super Bowl in six years, it will be because of Mahomes. We’d recommend pouncing on his betting odds to win Super Bowl MVP while you can, because there’s a chance they inch closer to even money in advance of the game.
OSB Prediction: Patrick Mahomes (+130)
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