Best UFC 302 Bets: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Picks

Eric Uribe
By , Updated on: Jun 1, 2024 08:00 PM
Best UFC 302 Bets: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Picks

UFC 302 is upon us — do you know who you’ll be betting on for the card’s biggest fights, including Makhachev vs. Poirier? Keep reading if not. We have three free picks for UFC 302 and we’re confident these will make you profitable over the weekend!

  • What: UFC 302
  • When: Saturday, May 18
  • Where: Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey

Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Betting Pick

This is a blockbuster main event — and we mean blockbuster. It pits the pound-for-pound best fighter in the sport (Makhachev) against one of UFC’s most-liked competitors (Poirier). Poirier will have the crowd on his side, but not the oddsmakers. That’s because Makhachev is strongly favored to beat Poirier in this title match, so much so that we’re instead wagering the over/under. Here’s how those odds are pegged at UFC’s top online betting sites:

OutcomeMyBookieBetUSBetOnline
Over 1.5 Rounds-160-160-160
Under 1.5 Rounds+130+130+130

Makhachev is currently -450 to beat Poirier, which is justified. The thing about Poirier is he’s historically struggled against fighters like Makhachev who can wrestle and control him on the ground. Look no further than Poirier’s previous two title shots against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. In both those fights, Poirier was submitted in the third round.

We see a similar outcome happening at UFC 302. Makhachev is essentially a carbon copy of Nurmagomedov — a wrestler with insanely good control. Poirier posed zero threat to Khabib even with his excellent striking. That was when he was 30 years old and in the prime of his career. Now 35, we can’t imagine he fares any better against Makhachev, who looks near unstoppable.

We’re betting the over here. Dustin has enough cardio and IQ to hang around for two rounds. But once the middle of the fight rolls around — and Makhachev has worn down Poirier with wrestling — a submission will be imminent. Again, we’re banking on the third round for that so put money on the over.

Over 1.5 rounds in Makhachev vs. Poirier fight at UFC 302
-160
BetUS

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa Betting Pick

This co-main event is going to be a banger — literally. Both these fighters have one gear, and that’s go, which should make for an action-packed fight. As it stands, Strickland is the betting favorite to win over Costa. Here’s how the moneyline odds are being pegged:

FighterMyBookieBetUSBetOnline
Sean Strickland-210-210-210
Paulo Costa+170+170+170

Both competitors go about their offense very differently, which only adds intrigue to this fight. Strickland, the former middleweight champion, is all about output. He averages 5.9 strikes per minute and uses a boxing style inside the octagon. He’s not particularly fast or powerful, but we’re telling you, he never stops marching forward.

On the other end, Costa goes about his striking very differently. Costa a kickboxer and is far more dangerous than Strickland. Eleven of his 14 career wins have been way of knockout, which backs that. He might not match Strickland’s gas tank, but it’s not like Costa can’t last in the ring either.

The fact that this bout is three rounds weighs heavily on us. In a five-rounder, we’d be strongly be on Strickland due to his cardio advantage. However, Costa has enough to hang in there for three rounds and not let up on his power shots. Costa has a real chance in three rounds, and honestly, his betting odds are mispriced. He’s worth an underdog play here cause we expect a razor-close fight in this one.

Paulo Costa to beat Sean Strickland at UFC 302
+170
BetUS

Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Romanov Betting Pick

Here’s another good fight in the featured spot of UFC 302. Both these fighters are heavyweight contenders who are a few wins away from a title shot (if Jon Jones ever comes back, that is). We’re most interested in betting the Almeida-Romanov over/under (as of this writing, it's yet to be released):

Almeida is the favorite to win (-270 moneyline), and he should be. He made one mistake in his last fight against Curtis Blaydes, which got him finished for the first time in his UFC career. Other than that, he’s been a dominant heavyweight. He has won seven straight UFC fights before that — all but one by stoppage too.

Grappling is Almeida’s specialty, and so is Romanov’s. This will be a rare heavyweight fight that’ll be more ground-based rather than standing up. This makes the over/under all the more interesting. So does the fact that Romanov has only been finished early once — a knockout to Alexander Volkov a year ago.

Despite that, we’re on the under. The issue we have with Romanov is his conditioning. It’s bad, really bad — amplified by him seemingly coming into recent fights out of shape. We have none of those concerns with Almeida, who is more athletic to begin with. We fully anticipate Almeida to rebound and have his way with Romanov. An early submission is likely in the cards bet so take the under.

How To Bet On UFC 302?

Want even more UFC 302 bets besides the three we covered above? Hit one of the below bookies then. Any one of them will offer every type of bet you need for this show, including props. There are easily a hundred or so different bets available once you start digging deeper.

Obviously, that’s a lot of wagers. If you need extra betting money to chase those opportunities, redeem a lucrative promotional bonus. Our favorite offers are listed below so pick one and boom, free UFC bets for you!

  • EXCLUSIVE BONUS
    Bovada
    5/5
    50% bonus up to $250
    No Code Needed
    Play Now

    T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly

  • BetOnline
    4.5/5
    100% bonus up to $1000
    No Code Needed
    Play Now

    T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly

  • EXCLUSIVE BONUS
    BetUS
    5/5
    125% up to $2,500
    No Code Needed
    Play Now

    T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly

  • Xbet
    5/5
    $500 Sign-up Bonus
    No Code Needed
    Play Now

    T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly

  • BetNow
    4/5
    100% up to $1,000
    No Code Needed
    Play Now

    T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly

  • MyBookie
    5/5
    50% bonus up to $1000
    No Code Needed
    Play Now

    T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly

  • Bookmaker
    4/5
    100% up to $400
    No Code Needed
    Play Now

    T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly

  • Sportsbetting
    4.5/5
    50% up to $1000
    No Code Needed
    Play Now

    T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly

  • EveryGame
    3/5
    $500 Sign Up Bonus
    No Code Needed
    Play Now

    T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly

  • WagerWeb
    4.5/5
    100% up to $1,000
    No Code Needed
    Play Now

    T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly

  • BetDSI
    3/5
    100% up to $500 + $500 at BetDsi's Casino
    No Code Needed
    Play Now

    T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly

  • BetNow
    4/5
    100% up to $450
    No Code Needed
    Play Now

    T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly

Meet the author

Eric Uribe

Eric has been passionate about sports since he was 10 years old. He brings over 10 years of sports journalism experience to his expert coverage of sports betting. Hailing from the US, Eric leverages his diverse expertise covering sports at all levels – from high schoo...

Online Sports Betting may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. Rest assured, we avoid biases and provide honest opinions on sportsbooks. Read our affiliate disclosure here.