Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig Picks

Eric Uribe
By , Updated on: Nov 17, 2023 12:00 AM
UFC Fight Night betting

Need betting picks for the UFC Fight night card happening on November 18? You’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed the night’s top fights and settled on three UFC Fight Night bets to make. Keep reading to get our picks!

  • What: UFC Fight Night
  • When: Sunday, November 18
  • Where: UFC Apex at Las Vegas, Nevada

Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig Betting Picks

The main event showcases two middleweights. As it stands, one fighter, Allen, is a clear-cut favorite to win on the moneyline at -450. It’s hard to make money off a lopsided line like that hence why we’re jumping on the Allen-Craig over/under instead. Here’s how the odds are set in that bet type at top UFC betting sites:

OutcomeBovadaMyBookieBetOnline
Over 1.5 Rounds-110-110-110
Under 1.5 Rounds-110-110-110

As you can see, the under is the big favorite in this one, as it should be. That’s because both fighters have a penchant for finishing fights early. Allen has 11 first-round finishes to his name, while Craig has 13 submissions over his career.

When looking at the matchup closer, similarities and differences between the two fighters become apparent. For one, both are grappling specialists, especially in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. This is what makes them so effective as finishers because a tap-out is always one mistake away.

When it comes to striking, Allen has the clear upper hand. He’s developed that part of his game during his UFC career and it’s starting to pay dividends. Allen has five straight wins thanks to this balanced style, which is why he’s No. 10 in the rankings now (Craig is No. 13). Craig never quite developed his striking ability and now that he’s 35 years old, he probably never will.

We’re confident Allen wins, but we’re also pretty sure it won’t be in his usual fashion — one and done. Craig is way too experienced to get caught right away in our book. This is why we’re betting the over with confidence in this one.

Over 1.5 rounds in Allen vs. Craig fight at UFC Fight Night
MyBookie
-110

Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews Betting Pick

This is classic matchmaking in the semi-main event between a pair of welterweights. On one side, you have a quick-rising prospect in Morales. On the other, you have a UFC veteran with Matthews. Here again, we’re more attracted to the Morales-Matthews over/under than the moneyline. The odds are pegged as follows:

OutcomeBovadaMyBookieBetOnline
Over 1.5 Rounds-185-185-185
Under 1.5 Rounds+155+155+155

At -300 moneyline odds, Morales is a very comfortable favorite to win. We think the sky is truly the limit for this 24-year-old, and that’s not hyperbole either. What gets us, and others excited, about Morales' future is his balanced fight style. Many fighters his age tend to do one thing really well and are developing the other facets in real-time. Morales, who is 15-0, already excels at striking (Muy Thai background) and wrestling.

Morales faces a wrestling-first fighter in Matthews, who averages 1.71 takedowns per fight (just a hair better than Morales). We predict the young prospect will fare well defending the takedown though. Morales’ takedown defense sits at an impressive 91 percent right now.

Still, we’re not quite sure Morales can get Matthews out early. Morales earned a decision last time out, only the third of his career. The thing about this matchup is Matthews has enough UFC experience to hang around. He’s been with the promotion since 2014 despite still being under 30 years old. We feel confident in betting over here too.

Over 1.5 rounds in Morales vs. Matthews fight at UFC Fight Night
MyBookie
-185

Jordan Leavitt vs. Chase Hooper Betting Pick

It’s time to ditch the over/under betting and pick a moneyline wager instead. This main card bout between Leavitt and Hooper presents a great opportunity because the betting line is quite close. Check out the current Hooper-Leavitt odds:

FighterBovadaMyBookieBetOnline
Jordan Leavitt+165+165+165
Chase Hooper-200-200-200

The odds are close, but honestly, they should probably be more even. This is because both fighters are mirror images of one another. Both Hooper and Leavitt are grapplers through and through with subpar striking ability. Differences after that are minuscule.

We suppose Hooper has more upside. The 12-3 fighter is only 24 years old. So far he’s 4-3 in UFC competition, but there’s a lot of meat left on this bone. Leavitt is 28 so the time to make big improvements in his game is dwindling. His overall mark is 11-2, which includes a submission loss to Paddy Pimblett a year ago.

As we alluded to before, this fight feels mispriced. Maybe the younger and quicker Hooper should be the favorite, but not at -200. This mispricing alone makes taking a flyer bet on Leavott worth it in our book. Go with the underdog in this one!

Jordan Leavitt to beat Chase Hooper at UFC Fight Night
MyBookie
+165

How To Bet On UFC Fight Night?

We love the three UFC Fight Night bets above, but there are a whole lot more opportunities elsewhere on the card. All bet types imaginable on the more than a dozen fights can be found at one of the bookmakers below. Moneyline, over/under, and props (which have the most bets available) are all there for the taking.

If you need help picking between betting sites, read our latest sportsbook reviews. Those detail all the sites at length, helping you make the best choice possible. We will say this though: no matter which bookie you choose, any one of these can be your one-stop shop for UFC betting from here on. Each is that damn good.

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Meet the author

Eric Uribe

Eric was born and raised in Nevada — the center of gambling in the United States. Throw in his natural interest in sports, and Eric was destined to be a sports bettor. This came to a head once Eric turned 21. Already a working sports journalist while in college, Er...

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