UFC undercard betting is a hidden-gem opportunity. Hidden because most bettors only focus on the top fights — despite the undercard dropping in bet value. If you’re reading this, that changes today.
- What: UFC Fight Night
- When: Saturday, January 13
- Where: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
Farid Basharat vs. Taylor Lapilus Betting Pick
We begin with the preliminary card, not even the main card. This matchup pits two bantamweights against one another, and as it stands, one is a big favorite to win per UFC’s best betting sites. Basharat is a convincing -290 to win. We’re not in love with that line, hence why we’re taking the Basharat-Lapilus over/under instead. Here’s the current odds:
| Outcome |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -240 | -240 | -240 |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | +200 | +200 | +200 |
Records-wise, both fighters are quite accomplished for those unfamiliar with them. Basharat has never once tasted defeat at 11-0. The last three wins were as part of the UFC. Only 26 years old, Basharat will have his chance to ascend the weight class. Lapilus has less time as he’s 31 years old. Still, his career record is 19-3. This marks Lipilus’ second UFC fight.
Matchup-wise, Basharat is a fierce wrestler. He’s averaging 3.5 takedowns per fight. That could be an exploit against Lapilus, who struggles to defend the takedown. Last fight, while he won, he was taken down twice by Caolán Loughran — whose wrestling isn’t nearly as good as Basharat. Lapilus is very balanced fighter with nine wins by decision, six by submission, and four by KO. Think of him as a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none competitor.
We see this fight going over. Our prediction is that Basharat outwrestles him for three rounds and wins quite easily. In the chance of an upset, Lapilus could perhaps outstrike him and win on points. We don’t see it happening, but it’s plausible. Either scenario hints toward the over regardless.
Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista Betting Pick
This too is a bantamweight fight, only this one will be featured on the main card. The moneyline between Simon and Bautista is quite close, as seen below:
| Fighter | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Simon | -190 | -190 | -190 |
| Mario Bautista | +160 | +160 | +160 |
Opposites collide in this fight. Both are high-volume fighters but go about it differently. The underdog, Bautista, loves standing up and striking. He’s quite effective at it too with 5.32 strikes landed per minute. Bautista can also wrestle, but it’s not his forte by any means.
It is Simon’s strength, however. Don’t be surprised to see the 31-year-old Simon shoot at legs this whole fight. That’s his M.O. and a good one at that as his takedown average is a very impressive 5.84 — double of Bautista’s (2.72).
This fight comes down to one thing: can Bautista defend the takedown? His takedown defense leaves a lot to be desired at only 56 percent. Sure, we think Bautista’s stand-up striking can also test Simon, but not as much as the other way around. What we mean is the takedown defense is a bigger mismatch, which is why we’re betting Simon to win. This too should go to decision (10 of Simon’s 20 wins have been by the scorecard).
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds: Andrew Arlovski vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
It’s not all that often that you get a former world champion on the prelim card, but that’s exactly what we have here with Arlovski in competition. This should be a rock-em-sock-em slugfest between two heavyweights. A matchup like that always lends itself well to betting the round total. Here’s how oddsmakers have the Arlovski-Cortes over/under pegged at:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Rounds | -130 | -130 | -130 |
| Under 1.5 Rounds | +100 | +100 | +100 |
When we said Arlovski was an ex-champion, you may be thinking of another promotion. You’d be wrong. Arlovski was in fact the UFC heavyweight champion, the 11th in the sport’s history. In 2005 — yes 19 years ago — he successfully defended it twice so it wasn’t a fluke win either. This guy was legit one of the best knockout artists in the sport.
The keyword there is was because that’s not Arlovski anymore. This is because he’s a whopping 44 years old. 44! The oldest guy in all of UFC! That explains why Arlovski is a whopping +500 to win this fight. He’s lost consecutive fights in a row and we’re betting it becomes three in a row. Heck, at this age, it’s fair to wonder whether Arlovski will leave his ring gloves on the mat when he’s done cause retirement HAS to be knocking.
Question is, can Arlovski hang with a fighter 11 years younger than him? We say no. Arlovski has been knocked out each of the last two times — once in the first, the other in the second round. When you’re that old and fought at heavyweight this long, the chin is all but gone. Slam the over because Cortes is getting him out of there early.
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