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- What: UFC 291
- When: Saturday, July 29
- Where: Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah
Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Betting Pick
Here. We. Go. The vacated BMF belt is on the line in this one, in what may be one of the best fights of the year on a pure entertainment standpoint, as Poirier and Gaethje throw down. Both lightweight fighters can strike with the best of them, which means the Poirier-Gaethje betting odds are uber close. Here are the lines available at top-used UFC betting sites:
| Fighter |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | -130 | -130 | -130 |
| Justin Gaethje | +110 | +110 | +110 |
This is not the first time that Gaethje and Poirier have met in the octagon. You’d have to go back to 2018 for the first-ever encounter between them. On that night, Poirier stopped Gaethje in the fourth round after a slugfest the first three rounds. However, five years is an eternity in the fight game and neither competitor is the same.
Both fighters have improved inside the ring, but Gaethje might be more different than five years ago. The biggest thing you’ll notice is that Gaethje is way, way more precise in his striking. Before, he swung his heavy hands wildly. He still possesses those strong hands, but he unleashes them at a more measured pace with some precision. This is a big reason he’s gone 6-2 since the Poirier defeat.
If we had to pick between which fighter is better on the feet, we’d still give the edge to Poirier. He doesn’t have the power of Gaethje but definitely has better accuracy and speed. The threat of Gaethje’s wrestling ability is technically there, but he’s gone away from it at this stage of his career for some odd reason. Therefore, we expect a slugfest again in this one.
Given that Poirier is the better striker, he gets our money here. Our prediction is this fight goes the full five rounds. A stoppage is always possible with these caliber of hitters, but both have respectable chins. For betters that want to up the risk, hit the prop bet market and take Poirier to win by decision.
Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira Betting Pick
The semi-main event is another doozy. It’s Pereira’s first fight in the new weight class. He moves up from middleweight after losing the championship to Israel Adesanya a few months ago. Most fighters have a “tune-up” fight when moving up, but that’s no wish thing here as Blachowicz is a former title holder. Perhaps not surprisingly, Blachowicz is a comfortable betting favorite to defeat Pereira:
| Fighter | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Blachowicz | -155 | -155 | -155 |
| Alex Pereira | +125 | +125 | +125 |
Both these fighters have a history with the aforementioned Adesanya. Of course, Pereira has three wins (two in kickboxing, one in UFC) against his rival before the precious loss. However, Blachowicz also handed Adesanya the only other UFC loss on his record. Two years ago, Adesanya moved up to this weight and lost a unanimous decision fight to Blachowicz. It wasn’t overly competitive as Blachowicz used better wrestling AND even striking to outdo “The Last Stylebender.”
That wrestling ability of Blachowicz is probably what decides this UFC 291 battle. Given his kickboxing pedigree, Pereira is as dangerous as it gets on the feet. However, whether he can defend the takedown effectively is more of a mystery. He really hasn’t had to in his short UFC stint. But there’s no question Blachowicz will angle for takedowns and then control on the ground. How Pereira fares in that is the X-factor.
For that reason, we’re picking Blachowicz to win. Pereira simply joined MMA too late to really get down the muscle memory needed to perfect grappling. We foresee him fighting on his back a lot of this fight, which just isn’t his forte. Blachowicz by decision is our final prediction here.
Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green Betting Pick
We couldn’t help ourselves by not betting this right. Ferguson, even at 39 years old and in the twilight of his career, is still a must-watch fighter. In this fight, he’s pitted against a 37-year-old Green. As it stands, Green is the heavy favorite to win over Ferguson per the bookies:
| Fighter | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Green | -345 | -345 | -345 |
| Tony Ferguson | +265 | +265 | +265 |
We might sound crazy, but taking Ferguson’s moneyline sure seems tantalizing. Yes, we get it, “El Cucuy” has lost five fights in a row. However, it’s been against a murder’s row of opponents — Gaethje, Michael Chandler, and Charles Oliveira, among others. Green is nowhere near that caliber. Despite being in the UFC for 10 years, Green has no real signature win. Green should be the favorite, but not by this much. Ferguson’s value is too good for us to pass up, hence this upset pick.
How To Bet On UFC 291 Card?
There are over a dozen fights on the UFC 291 card to bet on. Each of them has multiple lines, from moneylines to props to over/under on rounds fought. To get every type of sports bet available on the card, hit one of the bookmakers below. These sites not only carry all the odds, but they do so at bettor-friendly prices too.
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