Although sports betting in The Land of 10,000 Lakes isn’t currently legal, this hasn’t stopped Minnesota bettors from weighing in on the outcome of the 2025 mayoral election. And their consensus on the matter is…that there is no consensus.

First thing’s first: We all know sports betting in Minnesota remains illegal. Wagering on the outcome of elections typically falls under the sports betting bucket. However, prediction markets have become a popular alternative in markets without sports wagering. They exist in a legal gray area, to be sure—similar to daily fantasy sports betting. But companies argue they are different from operators who provide online sports betting in the United States. Their product, they say, is more like a stock market rather than a game of chance. 

Not everyone agrees. In fact, we have seen more states take aim at prediction markets, and the companies who traffic in them. But these actions aren’t consensus. They might be in due time, including in markets with sports betting. Those states, along with the operators they license, have come to believe daily fantasy sports infringes upon their industry. Prediction markets may follow the cycle of existence.

For now, though, they offer an accessible alternative for Minnesota bettors. Especially when it comes to wagering—er, we mean, investing in—the outcome of the mayoral election. 

Yet, while prediction markets can often be purveyors of clarity, this particular race is proving to be an exception.

Minnesota Bettors are Split Almost Down the Middle

The prediction markets are buzzing with transactions on the November 2025 mayoral race. And right now, Minnesota bettors are split almost down the middle. The data shows they juuust favor incumbent Jacob Frey, but the primary challenger, Senator Omar Fateh isn’t far behind at all. Here is Richard Chin of The Minnesota Star Tribune writes:

“The Minneapolis mayoral election looks like a dead heat, according to the odds listed by prediction markets that allow traders to bet on the election’s outcome. Trading on the PredictIt website, for example, gave incumbent Jacob Frey about a 51 percent chance of winning reelection as of Tuesday. Frey’s leading challenger, state Sen. Omar Fateh, who recently won the endorsement of Minneapolis Democrats for the seat, was given a 50 percent chance of winning. That means traders feel the race is close, according to Ethan Rosen, assistant director of the Washington, D.C.-based PredictIt. ‘It’s fair to say the prediction market says this thing is neck and neck,’ Rosen said.”

Talk about a fine line. Calling this a “dead heat” does not even seem to do it justice. If the election results follow this pattern, it could take some time for a winner to be declared. And the margins will be ultra-thin.

Of course, there is plenty of time separating Minnesota bettors from the 2025 mayoral election. We are roughly two and a half months away from the vote at this writing. A lot can happen during that time.

Still, with “investing” sentiment so split for the moment, it does seem like the upcoming election will at the very least be an incredibly close one.

Prediction Markets are Becoming More Popular Following Latest Sports Betting Flop

The rise in the use of prediction markets among Minnesota bettors is not unexpected. This past year’s sports betting discussion fell flat on its face, much like others before it. Some supporters are hopeful the next round of talks will go differently. Others, meanwhile, are speculating the Minnesota sports betting discussion will continue during special committee sessions later this year. That is rare, albeit not unprecedented. Another Georgia sports betting debate is taking place as you read this in a House Study Committee on Gaming.

Even so, the prospective timeline for sports betting legalization isn’t going to satisfy Minnesota bettors’ appetite. Let us assume a bill makes it past the House of Representatives and Senate next year. If it requires a constitutional amendment, it will appear on the November 2026 electoral ballot. Assuming voters then approve it, services may not launch for another year. 

Look at the Missouri sports betting legalization process as proof. They are the most recent state to have voters greenlight sports wagering. A constitutional amendment passed in November—incidentally, by ultra-thin margins. As of now, The Show Me state will launch sports betting in December 2025. If Minnesota follows a similar timeline, sports betting wouldn’t go live until December 2027.

And remember, this all banks on next year’s discussions ending with an approved bill in place. If Minnesota bettors have learned anything, it’s that the passage of initiatives is far from guaranteed. Many believed this would be the year sports betting got over the hump. As we know now, it will not. It makes sense, then, that prediction markets and their operators are reaping the benefits.

Can We Trust Prediction Markets to Reflect Voter Sentiment?

This is a tough question to answer. Much like betting on sports online, we can’t automatically equate odds with the potential for a specific outcome. Market sizes—or in this case, the loyalty of supporters—can impact prediction-market lines in ways that may not reflect reality. 

With this in mind, as Chin explains, these markets are “increasingly being seen as an alternative to polls as a way to predict the outcome of an election.” And if you ask operators, that’s the entire point. As the Kalshi prediction-market website notes: “Kalshi’s vision is to allow people to capitalize on their opinions, trade in the domain of every day, and hedge risks that relate to them. The price that a given event contract trades at is actually the market’s assessment of the probability that the event will happen.” 

We don’t have enough data on the success rate closing-trade prices versus the outcome of said events to test this hypothesis. But we will know by November whether Minnesota bettors are correct in their assessment that the mayoral election is going to be decided by razor-thin margins.

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your sports betting needs: