Arch Manning's Texas Debut Cost Someone $1M

Arch Manning’s first game as starter for the Texas Longhorns did not go according to plan—not for him, not for the team, and most definitely not for one bettor who wagered $1 million on the matchup against Ohio State.

The 21-year-old signal-caller was mostly unspectacular during his introduction to QB1 duties. He completed 17 of his 30 passes for 170 yards, one touchdown, an interception and a rather pedestrian 108.6 passer rating. Texas wound up losing one of the most anticipated college football games of the season 14-7.

Opinions on the potential and future of Arch Manning are flying in the aftermath of his performance. And we will get to those. But it has since come out that the first seven-figure college football bet of the season was taken on this game. And as Ben Fawkes writes for Yahoo Sports, it did not end well:

“A bettor at Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada placed the first reported seven-figure bet of the college football season early on Saturday morning: $1 million on the Texas moneyline at -105 odds. The wager would've won $952,380.95, but unfortunately for the bettor, Manning's fourth-quarterback comeback came up short and Ohio State prevailed in a close-fought 14-7 game. It was a mixed debut for the Longhorns signal-caller, as he threw for 170 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception.”

Anyone familiar with how betting on college football works will not be too taken aback by the number here. Big money is thrown around on premier matchups all the time. Arch Manning being his era as Texas’ QB1 against one of the nation’s top squads absolutely qualifies as must-see TV.

At the same time, given how shaky the betting lines for Texas vs. Ohio State became, the decision to wager so much on this particular game is an interesting one. And for the bettor specifically, it was clearly the wrong one.

Arch Manning’s Debut Made for Chaotic College Football Betting Lines

As Fawkes goes onto note, the Arch Manning betting line effect created fairly unprecedented circumstances entering Texas’ showdown with Ohio State:

“The line for this game moved a lot, opening this summer with Ohio State as a 3-point favorite, before Texas moved to a slight favorite at several books (and a pick-em at several others) based on outsized public support on Friday. On Saturday morning, Ohio State moved back to — and closed — as a consensus short favorite. Circa Sports reported taking a $550,000 wager on Texas +1 on Thursday. At BetMGM sportsbooks, as of Saturday morning, Texas +1 was the most-bet college football wager (among Top 25 games) by both total bets and total dollars wagered, with 66 percent of the money on Texas to cover. The Longhorns became the first No. 1 team in the AP Top 25 poll to close as an underdog in Week 1 since at least 1978, per ESPN research.”

This is bonkers on its face. In hindsight, though, the circumstances almost seemed to invite such chaos.

Arch Manning is billed as a prodigy, but the sophomore remains relatively unproven. Since coming to Texas ahead of the 2023 college football season, he has made just 12 appearances. Only a handful of those feature him taking a significant number of snaps. Basically none of them include any high-stakes moments.

All of that uncertainty alone should lend itself to fading a No. 1 seed. Heck, it’s now debatable whether the Arch Manning-led Longhorns should be receiving that much praise. Overall, though, it is a good reminder that public action is not always reflective of reality. Player popularity and name recognition can fuel betting odds on college football games just as much as data that goes into the weeds.

Betting on the Texas Longhorns Could Cool Off from Here

It will be interesting to see how much, if at all, betting on Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns gets impacted by Week 1’s letdown. They figure to be one of the biggest draws of the 2025 college football betting season.

This would not be as compelling to discuss if sports betting in Texas was up and running. In-market support for premier college football programs doesn’t waver as much with their record. But Texas sports betting remains illegal. Though residents can place wagers in other states or use one of the many offshore betting sites that offer unfettered access, officially reported data is heavily reliant on national interest in Arch Manning and the Longhorns.

One loss will not crater the betting volume on Texas. The Longhorns are one of those programs that has broad appeal. Think of them as the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys. It is not hard to find fans or people who follow the Longhorns in any given state.

If anything, interest in Arch Manning and the Longhorns may only increase following their Week 1 loss. Crass as it sounds, the idea that a supposed prodigy could be underwhelming or go bust will pique curiosity. And that curiosity will drive more wagering.

Granted, it does seem more likely that bettors will fade Texas and Arch Manning in the immediate aftermath. But that will not have an impact on overall volume. Any decline in interest is likely weeks away. Manning will have to turn in a series of disappointing outings before losing curb appeal. While many are already writing him off, his mystique endures. And so, too, will betting volume on the Longhorns.

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