Alcaraz Heavy Betting Favorite In ATP Japan Open

WHAT: ATP Japan Open - Men's Tennis Singles
WHEN: Wednesday, September 24th, 2025 - Tuesday, September 30th, 2025
WHERE: Ariake Colosseum, Tokyo, Japan
WATCH: The Tennis Channel

As he arrives at the ATP Japan Open, Spain's Carlos Alcaraz is feeling an unusual sensation.

Alcaraz did something last week that he hardly ever does. He lost a match.

The guy who beat him, Taylor Fritz, is also entered in the Japan Open. And the American player is a past champion in this tournament.

Nonetheless, oddsmakers remain unimpressed. They've set Alcaraz as the -175 chalk to win this event. Fritz is the +500 second betting choice.

Let's look at the latest ATP Japan Open tennis betting lines. Remember, odds are always subject to change.

ATP Tokyo Odds
Carlos Alcaraz	-175	-185	-180
Taylor Fritz	+500	+450	+500
Tomas Mahac	+1800	+2000	+2000
Casper Ruud	+2200	+2200	+2200
Denis Shapovalov	+2200	+2500	+2500
Holger Rune	+2200	+2200	+2200
Brandon Nakashima	+2500	+2800	+2800
Frances Tiafoe	+2500	+2800	+2800
Jaume Munar	+2500	+2800	+2800
Alex Michelsen	+2800	+2800	+3300
Ugo Humbert	+2800	+2800	+2800
Jenson Brooksby	+3300	+3500	+3300
Matteo Berrettini	+3300	+3500	+3300
Gabriel Diallo	+4000	+4000	+3300
Sebastian Korda	+4000	+4000	+4000

Tomas Mahac, at +1800, is the only other player on the board with odds shorter than +2200.

Enhance Your Tennis Betting

When preparing to place a wager on the ATP Japan Open picks, check with online sports betting to get all the up-to-date tennis odds. You'll find all the latest tennis betting action from the leading online sports betting sites and be able to compare odds and find the best bets on tennis futures. There's also an all-inclusive online sports betting guide to help educate newcomers about wagering on tennis and other sporting events. And if you're someone who's always busy but still wants to get some bets down, have a look at our handy guide to the best sports betting apps.

ATP Japan Open Top Contenders

An ATP 500 event, the Japan Open is one of the longest-running tournaments on tour. It was first held in 1972.

Can anyone stop Carlos Alcaraz or Taylor Fritz from lifting the Japan Open title? 🇯🇵#ATP #kinoshitajotennis https://t.co/WrL4yS39rf

— Tennis365 (@tennis365com) September 23, 2025

Injury is keeping defending champion Arthur Fils out of the 2025 event. Ugo Humbert, who lost to Fils in the final, is back and set with odds of +2800.

Let's look at the top contenders for this year's title.

Carlos Alcaraz (-175)

The No. 1 player in the world, Alcaraz has reached the final in each of his last eight tournaments. He's playing in Tokyo for the first time.

Alcaraz boasts a tour-leading 61 match wins on the season. The Spaniard is 28-4 on hard courts in 2025.

Taylor Fritz (+500)

Fritz beat both Alcaraz and world No. 3 Alexander Zverev in last week's Laver Cup.

World No. 5 Fritz tends to make the most of his hard-court appearances, combining a powerful serve with a stellar ground-stroke game. He owns a career mark of 61.34% on hard courts (219-138).

Tomas Mahac (+1800)

Mahac reached the semifinals of this tournament last year. He lost 3-6, 6-3, 2-6 to Ugo Humbert.

Casper Ruud (+2200)

The No. 3 seed in this event last year, the Norwegian was ousted in the first round 6-7(5-7), 1-6 by unseeded Australian Jordan Thompson. He's No. 12 in the ATP rankings.

Denis Shapovalov (+2200)

The seventh seed at ATP Tokyo in 2022, Canadian Shapovalov was a losing semifinalist. He was beaten 3-6, 7-6(7-5), 3-6 by Fritz, the eventual winner of the tournament.

Holger Rune (+2200)

The No. 11-ranked player in the ATP, Rune was also an ATP Japan Open semifinalist in 2024. He lost 6-7(8-10), 6-7 (10-12) to Fils in an epic match.

Best ATP Tokyo Prop Bets

Alcaraz is also a heavy -500 favorite to win the first quarter of the draw in ATP Japan Open prop wagering. Rune is set as the +260 betting choice to be the winner of the third quarter. Shapovalov and Ruud are +275 co-favorites to take the second quarter. At present, no odds are being offered on which player will be the winner of the fourth quarter.

Naturally, since both include Alcaraz, the first quarter of the draw and the top half of the draw are favored to provide the tournament winner. You'll get a betting line of -225 if you play the first quarter to win. The fourth quarter is the +375 second betting choice. It's -335 that the top half is where the winner will come from. The bottom half is offered in the tennis betting odds at +240.

ATP 500 Japan Open Men's Main Draw pic.twitter.com/HbM0bErS8n

— Ken McKinnon (@mckinnon88877) September 22, 2025

The tennis betting lines are set at -110 that an unseeded player will win the ATP Japan Open. Arthur Fils, last year's winner, was unseeded. It's +1400 that a qualifier will reach the final. In 2019, qualifier Jack Millman lost in the final to Novak Djokovic.

That a wildcard will reach the final is given a betting line of +2800. Entered as a wildcard in 2013, Juan Martin Del Potro won the ATP Japan Open. However, that's a bit misleading. After being granted entry as a wildcard, Del Potro was also given the No. 1 seed.

And The Winner Is . . .

All signs are pointing to another meeting between Alcaraz and Fritz, this one in the tournament final. Fritz's 6-3, 6-2 win over Alcaraz in the Laver Cup was his first-ever victory against the world's No. 1 player. Alcaraz holds a 3-1 edge. That includes a 2-1 advantage on hard court surfaces.

Carlos Alcaraz To win ATP Japan Open

-175

Bet Now!

What it comes down to is whether you are willing to bet against a player who's won 13 in a row on this surface in tournament play and is 28-4 in his last 32 matches.. That doesn't seem like a wise wager. Go with Alcaraz to win in the ATP Japan Open picks.