Oklahoma Sports Betting Market Worth $500M

How much is Oklahoma sports betting worth to the state if it gets legalized? That’s the question many legislators and gambling advocates have attempted to answer as the discussion of its future in The Sooner State continues.

Make sure to put a special emphasis on “continues.” As of now, sports betting in Oklahoma is not legal. And despite repeated attempts to change that, we have little evidence to suggest The Sooner State will definitively shift course in 2026.

Still, legislative meetings slated to reconvene on February 2, 2026, the topic is once again front-and-center. Most experts would be surprised if Oklahoma sports betting was not among the most prominent matters on the agenda.

Whether any bill will have the support necessary to pass is a separate matter. But advocates are starting to disseminate information in hopes of swaying public opinion and perception.

This brings us to Senator Majority WHIP Bill Coleman, and his recent interview with Wayne Stafford of FOX 25. Throughout their discussion, he spoke on the merits of legalized Oklahoma sports betting. Part of that entailed revealing the latest revenue estimates, which apparently check in anywhere between $150 million and $1 billion.

Yes, you are reading that final number correctly. It is $1 billion. But is it, really? Let’s investigate.

Oklahoma Sports Betting Estimates Seem to be All Over the Place

Here are Mr. Coleman’s full comments on how much money Oklahoma sports betting could generate annually if legalized:

“For the state as a whole, depending on the final agreement, estimates show revenue of $150 million for the state of Oklahoma. It would produce that, with some of that revenue definitely going to problem gaming and helping with that. It would stop money from going out of the state. That’s really my passion to get sports betting in Oklahoma. I live close to Kansas. I see people going up there and making bets, and revenue is leaving the state. And I don’t like that. And the other thing: I want to beat Texas [to legalizing sports betting]. Estimates say black market sports betting in Oklahoma are worth anywhere between $500 million and $1 billion. It’s pretty hard to track it. But that’s an estimate.”

We would be remiss to take Mr. Coleman’s illegal Oklahoma sports betting estimates seriously. At the very least, they cannot be entirely accurate.

If legal Oklahoma sports betting will generate around $150 million in tax revenue, there’s no way black-market gambling is yielding between three and six times that much.

A couple of things could be happening here that complicate the translation. Mr. Coleman could refer to the estimated sports betting handle. That is simply the total amount of money spent on sports gambling. It does not account for sportsbook revenue, let alone state tax revenue.

Beyond that, Mr. Coleman could also be citing all forms of black market Oklahoma gambling. This, in theory, would include offshore casinos. And featuring them would drum up the total quite a bit.

Even then, though, the $1 billion estimate feels too high. Perhaps $500 million is more realistic.

Is Oklahoma Overestimating Sports Gambling Revenue?

Regardless, neither of the above numbers ($500 million to $1 billion) can be referring to the potential of Oklahoma sports betting on its own. There is currently only one market that has cleared $1 billion in tax revenue for a single year: sports betting in New York. And with a population of nearly 20 million people, The Empire State market is five times as large as The Sooner State.

We are better off working with the $150 million figure to start. To see whether that’s realistic, we need only look at a state with a comparable population and media tax rate.

To that end, the Louisiana sports betting market feels like the move here. Their college and pro sports market is similar to The Sooner State’s. And with a population of a little over 4.6 million, they are right in line with Oklahoma’s 4.1 million mark. Louisiana’s media income (roughly $29,700) is lower than The Sooner State’s (around $32,700), but we’ll adjust for that per capita.

Anyway, Louisiana sports betting has generated $61.6 million in tax revenue for 2025 after 10 months’ worth of reports. If we assume the currently monthly averages hold, they will end up at $73.9 million or so for the year. That comes out to around $16.07 per resident.

If we adjust that per-capita number to account for Oklahoma’s higher median income, we can say The Sooner State would generate about $17.69 in sports betting tax revenue per resident. Multiply that number by their 4.1 million population, and you get…$72.5 million. That is less than half of what Coleman is projecting.

We Need More Information on Sports Betting Revenue in The Sooner State

All of this is presented with the caveat that our estimates are beyond rough. So much more must go into them. At the same time, we can’t bring ourselves to believe that the Oklahoma sports betting market is equipped to more than double the revenue being made in Louisiana.

Maybe Mr. Coleman was referencing a Year 3 or Year 5 projection. That would make more sense. And yet, it would still seem high.

This is precisely why we need more information on the Oklahoma sports betting market. Has online sports betting in the United States increased so much they anticipate higher volume than certain active states? Are they planning on assessing a tax rate closer to 40 or 50 percent, like New York, rather than the average tax rate levied by Louisiana? Is this simply an overinflated view of the market?

More data is necessary. To what end it’s reliably available without actually legalizing Oklahoma sports betting is a separate matter—a matter that’s bound to take center stage, once again, in the coming weeks.

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