Gary | Sat 03/12/2016 - 17:13 EST

NBA Best & Worst Offenses

When & Why To Choose The Over/Under

By Dan Favale

Best Offenses

5. Los Angeles Clippers (+650)


The real surprise would be if the Los Angeles Clippers didn't have a top-five offense. This standing is expected, it's assumed, when you have Chris Paul running point.

Such a high-octane attack makes the Clippers solid over plays by default. They're even more intriguing over bets now that their defense is slumping. 

4. Houston Rockets (+3300)

If you are surprised that the Houston Rockets don't rank higher, you're not alone. They rank fourth in points scored per 100 possessions, which is fine. Great, even. But James Harden is playing like a psychopath on the offensive end, and the Rockets score so many points you just bank on them placing higher.

Volume, though, doesn't always equate to efficiency. The Rockets are fast and opportunistic, but their defense is bad. They are good over plays and a dark-horse championship pick—particularly following their recent double-overtime victory against the Golden State Warriors.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (+300)

Three things are certain in life: Death, taxes and LeBron James' team obliterating opposing defenses.

The 2016-17 Cleveland Cavaliers are no exception. They go through protracted stretches of sleepwalking, but all in all, their offense holds up against any other scoring machine in the league—so long as LeBron is on the floor, that is. Cleveland cannot function without him in the game.

This year more than ever the Cavaliers are great over plays. Their offense is mostly on fire, while the defense ranks 17th in points allowed per 100 possessions. That's not a great combination for championship-contention purposes, but it sure makes them predictable at the sportsbooks.

2. Toronto Raptors (+4000)


The Toronto Raptors' standing is both surprising and not at all shocking.

DeMar DeRozan is balling, so it shouldn't come as news that the Raptors are putting up a lot of points. But this isn't a team that moves the ball a ton, and Kyle Lowry has been working through some early-season warts. 

Top 10, fine. Even top seven. But top two? That's ridiculously impressive. 

Throw in their inconsistent, mostly cruddy defense, and they profile as one of the best over plays for the first half of the season.

1. Golden State Warriors (-120)

Who else?

This is what happens when you take a 73-win core with the league's offense and add Kevin Durant to the fold: It gets better.

The Golden State Warriors are basically a giant fireball on the offensive end. They play fast and free, and their ability to torch you in so many different ways is beyond unrivaled.

Though the Warriors' defense has picked up of late, they are still fairly strong over bets through and through. The offense is that good overall, and the number of possessions they generate also means more scoring opportunities for their opponents.

As for their championship candidacy, there is no question. They are overwhelming favorites, and for good reason.

Worst Offenses

5. Atlanta Hawks (+4000)


No offense in the league has been more disappointing than that of the Atlanta Hawks. Yes, they lost Al Horford and Jeff Teague over the offseason, but their replacements, Dwight Howard and Dennis Schroder, respectively, arguably checked in as lateral—or almost lateral—alternatives.

But the starting five can't score, and the Hawks have looked better on the more glamorous end whenever Schroder takes a seat. That's an issue, one that renders the Hawks faux contenders. 

In the meantime, they are solid under plays, thanks to both an anemic offense and a stingy defense.

4. Memphis Grizzlies (+4000)

The Memphis Grizzlies have been among the best under plays over the last seven years, and absolutely nothing has changed now.

This holds doubly true over the next two months or so. The Grizzlies will be without starting point guard Mike Conley, and as their on-off splits will show, they struggle mightily to generate points without him.

To that end, Memphis has fallen firmly outside title consideration. The team is too banged up, and the offense will never be good enough, even at full strength, with the current personnel.

3. Dallas Mavericks (50000)

It turns out Dallas Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle cannot conjure a top-10 offense out of thin air every year, no matter what personnel he's given. This year proves as much.

Indeed, Dirk Nowitzki has been injured. Same goes for J.J. Barea. But the Mavericks lack the firepower and general offensive depth to amount to anything more than an average offensive team—and that's at their peak.

Right now, they are under plays, because their defense has bordered on quality. Still, be careful. This doesn't look like a defense that can hold up, and the Mavericks could improve offensively as the season goes on. They might be over plays in the semi-near future. 

2. Philadelphia 76ers (+100000)


Joel Embiid makes the Philadelphia 76ers' offense okay when he's on the floor. The debut of Ben Simmons, which is expected sometime between January and February, will help as well.

For now, the Sixers are neither over nor under investments. Both their offense and defense are terrible. Steer clear. 

1. Orlando Magic (+30000)

Anytime you have an exceptional defense paired with a league-worst offense, you must bet the under, while avoiding any big-picture future bets. 

As luck would have it, that's where we are at with the Orlando Magic. 

Adjust your betting patterns accordingly.

Category : Sports Betting News