The July 4th tradition like no other is back — the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest. Is it gross to watch? Sort of. But is there money to make off betting it? Oh, you betcha! Here are our favorite hot dog contest betting picks that we believe will make you money on Independence Day!
- What: 2023 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
- When: Tuesday, July 4
- Where: Coney Island, New York
- How to watch: ESPN2 and ESPN+ streaming app
Joey Chestnut Betting Picks
Chestnut is to hot dog eating contests what Michael Jordan is to basketball — the G.O.A.T. It’s almost a given that Chestnut will win the title in 2023 again, considering he’s won 15 of the last 16 years. Entertainment-based betting sites have pegged his moneyline odds at winning a staggering -5000. Let’s face it, there’s not much money to make off that. That’s why we’ve dug into the prop market to find the most worthwhile Chestnut bets. Here are two we think you should earmark:
Men’s Record
Chestnut currently holds the record for most hot dogs eaten in this 10-minute competition — 76, which he mowed down in 2021. That topped his previous record of 75 during the pandemic-affected 2020 event. So here’s a simple yes-or-no bet on whether Chestnut can eat at least 75.5 dogs. The betting options are as follows:
| Outcome |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | +225 | +225 | +225 |
| No | -350 | -350 | -350 |
Ah, what the hell, we’re betting yes. We mean, the plus-money odds are too good to pass up given Chestnut is the No. 1-ranked eater right now, and probably all time. And at this point, the only competition he has is with himself and past performances.
If Chestnut was like most “athletes”, this is the point of time when we’d start doubting him. That’s because Chestnut is turning 40 years old in a few months. But here’s the thing: eating, unlike basketball, doesn’t have an aging curve — not one we’ve noticed before. Therefore, Chestnut is more ‘98-era Jordan (the last Dance) than ‘02-era Jordan (with the Wizards). So we encourage you to bet alongside greatness here.
Over/Under 71.5 Dogs
Alright, for bettors a tad more risk-averse, lets us point you in the direction of the over/under on Chestnut. It’s at a more modest 71.5, which is well under the all-time record. Here are the odds for each option:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 71.5 hot dogs | -130 | -130 | -130 |
| Under 71.5 hot dogs | -110 | -110 | -110 |
There’s one variable we haven’t accounted for: protests. You see, Chestnut ate a meager 63 dogs last year (meager by his standard). But the down performance was partly because a protester with a sign reading “Expose Smithfield Deathstar” stormed the stage in front of Chestnut, who promptly choked him out. It appears to be a protest toward Smithfield Foods and the company's treatment of animals.
We can’t imagine that happening again (which is a different bet in itself) so we expect a classic Chestnut performance. We’d pound the over on this bet hard since Chestnut will want to “redeem” the down performance.
Will A Protester Make Stage During Men's Competition?
We said it was a prop bet, and we weren’t kidding. Here’s another yes-no bet on whether a protester makes their way on-stage during the men’s competition:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | +155 | +155 | +155 |
| No | -220 | -220 | -220 |
Throw money on the no here. After last year’s debacle, we anticipate security will be way more buttoned-up this year. If so, this bet could be easy money for bettors.
Other Hot Dog Contest Bets
Enough with Chestnut and the men’s competition. The ladies also have their own separate event, but it’s not expected to be overly competitive either. That’s because Miki Sudo has dominated the field like Chestnut in recent years. She’s currently -5000 to win once more. Instead of taking that line, we’re picking another hot dog prop bet involving Sudo.
It’s the familiar over/under bet. Right now, Sudo’s total is set at 43.5. The over is a marginal betting favorite:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 43.5 hot dogs | -130 | -130 | -130 |
| Under 43.5 hot dogs | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Sudo owns the women’s record with 48.5 dogs eaten, set back in 2020. She sat out the 2021 event due to birthing a child but returned last year with a 40-dog effort. That’s why the 43.5 number feels a tad rich to us.
You see, Sudo has won every single competition she’s participated in since 2014. But in those wins, she’s only crossed the 43.5-mark once. Besides her world record, the best she’s done is 41 in 2017. That’s why we’re inclined to bet the under on this one.
How To Bet On 2023 Nathan’s Day Hot Dog Eating Contest
There are a ton of more ways to bet on the Nathan’s Day Hot Dog Eating Contest than the four bets we covered above. Believe us, prop bets on this competition are absolutely abundant. To get a full list of sports betting types, then hit one of the bookmakers listed in the table. Any one of these will offer the full gamut of lines on the July 4th event.
Better yet, you could even bet on the competition for free. Each of these bookmakers is offering promotional bonuses of some kind. These deals pay hundreds to thousands of dollars in free play for just inserting money into the platform. That type of money could bankroll your bets here and then some. See the table below for a list of the top deals available!
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