Pick Astros to upset favored Rays at home

Tony Reyes
By , Updated on: Apr 9, 2024 08:00 PM
Pick Astros to upset favored Rays at home
  • When: Tuesday, April 25 at 6:40 PM ET
  • Who: Astros at Rays
  • Starting Pitchers: Luis Garcia and Drew Rasmussen
  • Where: Tropicana Field in Tampa, Florida

The Astros and Rays are two of the better teams in the Major Leagues and are facing off in a series that is sure to be competitive.

Both teams are in the top 10 of the latest power rankings. The Rays won the first game of the series 8-3 to improve to 20-3 on the season.

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Taj Bradley got the win against the Astros, while the Rays bullpen was able to limit the high-powered offense to just 3 runs.

Game Preview

The Astros will be looking to Luis Garcia to take the mound while the Rays will be sending out their ace pitcher Drew Rasmussen.

The victory over the Astros yesterday set a record for the Rays with 14-straight wins at home to start a season

Garcia will be looking to hand the Rays their first loss at home despite not having the best start to his season. He's 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA along with 24 strikeouts.

He did win his last start against the Blue Jays and allowed zero runs. It seems as if he is improving. He's going to need to be at his best because, on the other side of the field, Rasmussen has been one of the best pitchers in baseball to start the season.

Rasmussen is 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA along with 26 strikeouts. He has performed well this year and could be a problem for the Astros lineup.

The Astros have struggled this season getting out to a 12-11 record. Their loss to the Rays yesterday ended a 4 game-winning streak.

They are struggling to find any type of consistency with all the roster changes.

Money Line

The Rays are priced as -170 favorites for this game which is one of the lowest prices you will see for the Rays all season. Considering their record and pitching advantage in this matchup, this feels like it should be priced much closer to -200.

Money LineBovadaBetOnlineBetUS

The Astros offense is too good to get shut down again even though they are facing Rasmussen. However, the Rays have the best offense in all of baseball right now.

The Astros priced as +141 underdogs in this game is the pick in this game. This pricing by the sportsbook means they believe the Astros have around 41% to win the game.

The sportsbooks have made a mistake that you should take advantage of sooner rather than later. The Astros money line is the pick in this game.

Houston Astros To win game

Total Runs

This total of 7.5 runs feels a little low considering both of these offenses are top-10 in scoring runs. The hesitancy of sportsbooks to set a higher total may be due to Rasmussen, but I disagree with them.

Total RunsBovadaBetOnlineBetUS
Over 7.5 Runs-120-120-120
Under 7.5 Runs-105+100-110

These offenses are too talented and are going to score runs. It doesn't seem likely both of these opposing offenses don't get to at least 8 runs in this game.

I am picking the Astros to win a closely contested game by a score of 5-4.

I would recommend betting over 7.5 runs in this game.

Astros and Rays Over 7.5 Runs

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Pitching Props

Rasmussen has been a bright spot for the Rays this season. His continued improvement has added stability to their rotation and allowed them to flourish defensively.

Rasmussen O 6.5-105-105-110
Rasmussen U 6.5-120-115-115

Furthermore, this is a difficult one because the number on this strikeout prop of 6.5 feels right.

Rasmussen averages 6 strikeouts a game and he is going to be facing an Astros team that is not afraid to swing and miss.

Despite the Astros having a top-10 offense they do strike out more often than they should.

I am picking the Astros to get the best of Rasmussen today and that's why I can't recommend his strikeout prop.

Drew Rasmussen does not get to 7 strikeouts against this Astros team.

Rasmussen under 6.5 strikeout is the pick.

Drew Rasmussen Under 6.5 Strikeouts

Best Bet

There are two bets in this game I would recommend.

The first is over 7.5 runs and the second one is the Astros money line.

Astros and Rays Over 7.5 Runs

Houston Astros To win game

Make sure to check our top sportsbook reviews for the best odds on your favorite MLB prop bets before placing your bets.

Meet the author

Tony Reyes

With years of experience as both a fan and analyst, Tony brings an expert voice to picks and predictions. His love of sports betting comes through in coverage that informs and entertains in equal measure. When not watching the games or covering them, you can find Tony s...

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