Red Sox rout rookie Schwellenbach to even series against Braves

When: Wednesday, June 5th at 1:40 PM ET
Who: Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers: Spencer Schwellenbach and Nick Pivetta
Where: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

Spencer Schwellenbach, a top prospect for the Atlanta Braves, will make his second start in the majors. The Braves promoted Schwellenbach from Double-A, where he had yet to allow a run.

He was decent but not exceptional in his first start against the Washington Nationals.

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Game Preview

On Wednesday, Schwellenbach faces the Boston Red Sox, with Nick Pivetta taking the mound for Boston. Pivetta, with his extensive experience, strikes out many batters and rarely issues walks.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves	-101	-101	-106
Boston Red Sox	-109	-109	-102

Both lineups have been comparable over the past month, but Boston’s bullpen has been superior. With Pivetta starting, the Red Sox hold value on the moneyline.

In his first appearance, Schwellenbach allowed three earned runs over five innings, striking out five and walking just one.

In the minors this year, he recorded 51 strikeouts over 45 innings and allowed only one home run. Despite his potential, Schwellenbach may not perform as well as Pivetta in this matchup.

The Braves have struggled against right-handed pitchers recently, posting a 96 wRC+ with an 8.4% walk rate and a 23.5% strikeout rate over the past month.

Atlanta Braves To win game

-101

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The injury to Ronald Acuña Jr. has significantly impacted their offense, leaving only five active batters with an xwOBA above .320 since May 5.

Atlanta’s bullpen has also been underwhelming, with a 4.17 xFIP over the past month.

Max Fried's career-high 13 strikeouts tonight earns the record for most strikeouts by an NL pitcher at Fenway Park! pic.twitter.com/i3Fa1RbaRU

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) June 5, 2024

Pivetta, known for his strikeout ability and low walk rate, has a sub-4.00 xERA. Though he has faced challenges recently, he has the potential to bounce back in this game.

Boston’s lineup is similar to Atlanta’s, with a 97 wRC+, a 7.5% walk rate, and a 23.4% strikeout rate over the past month.

The top of the Red Sox lineup, including Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers, has been particularly effective against right-handed pitching.

Overall, the Red Sox appear to have the advantage against the inexperienced Schwellenbach.

Boston’s bullpen has been impressive, featuring six relievers with an xFIP under 4.00 over the past month and ranking fifth in xFIP (3.55) during this period.

Playing at home with a stronger pitching staff, the Red Sox have the edge. While the lineups are comparable, Boston’s power and the absence of Acuña tilt the scales in their favor.

Pivetta’s ability to throw strikes and generate strikeouts makes the Red Sox a solid bet to win at Fenway Park, and they are worth backing.

Boston Red Sox To win game

-109

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Total Runs

Let's take a look at the total runs market for this game. Oddsmakers have set the total at a whopping 9 runs.

Total Runs
Over 9	-121	-120	-120
Under 9	+101	+100	+100

This feels like a large number for the total in this matchup. However, oddsmakers are uncertain about Schwellenbach so the high total makes some sense.

The Braves had no issues scoring runs in their 8-3 win over the Red Sox yesterday. The Braves are going for a mini-sweep today.

Nick Pivetta's 8 Consecutive Strikeouts. 😯 pic.twitter.com/sd1Ikb9ucf

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 30, 2024

Nick Pivetta is 7-5 with an ERA of 5.30 and 78 strikeouts in 20 appearances versus the Braves in his career. This total of 9 runs is starting to make sense.

The Red Sox and Braves can both score runs in bunches. This one feels like an easy over.

I would recommend betting over 9 runs in this matchup at -120 odds.

Over 9 Runs Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox

-121

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