Toyota/Save Mart 350 Picks: Martin Truex Jr The Favorite at Sonoma

Quinn Allen
By , Updated on: Jun 6, 2024 08:00 PM
Toyota/Save Mart 350 Picks: Martin Truex Jr The Favorite at Sonoma
  • What: Toyota Save Mart 350
  • When: Sunday, June 9th
  • Where: Sonoma Raceway

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to California this weekend for the 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at the beautiful Sonoma Raceway. Austin Cindric is coming off a win at the Enjoy Illinois 300, but he isn't a favorite on Sunday. The frontrunner happens to be Martin Truex Jr, who has won three of the last five visits to Sonoma, hence his +550 odds to come out victorious. As per usual, Kyle Larson is also in the mix at +800, while Ty Gibbs and William Byron also sit at that same number. Other contenders include Christopher Bell (+900), Tyler Reddick (+900), Chase Elliott (+950), and Chris Buescher (+1200). This track is a road racer's dream with a total of 12 turns. It's always an exciting race at Sonoma. Continue reading for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks.

Before we get into the analysis, odds, and predictions for this race, check out our how-to bet on NASCAR page.

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds

DriverBetOnlineBovadaBetUS
Martin Truex Jr+550+550+525
Kyle Larson+800+750+750
Ty Gibbs+800+850+800
William Byron+800+800+750
Christopher Bell+900+750+750
Tyler Reddick+900+900+900
Chase Elliott+950+850+850
Chris Buescher+1200+1200+1350
Michael McDowell+1400+1400+1350
AJ Allmendinger+1400+1200+1200

The Sonoma Raceway is 218.9 miles long. There's 110 laps in total, with 25 in stage one, 35 in stage two, and 50 in the final stage. It's been known as the Toyota/Save Mart 350 since 2007.

The past champions go as follows:

  • Martin Truex Jr (2023)
  • Daniel Suarez (2022)
  • Kyle Larson (2021)
  • Martin Truex Jr (2019)
  • Martin Truex Jr (2018)

Martin Truex Jr (+550)

It's understandable why Truex Jr is at the top of the expected winners on Sunday given his sheer dominance at Sonoma. He's led the most laps of any Cup Series driver at Sonoma in four of the previous six years, too. Despite Truex Jr having recent finishes of 25th, 12th, 12th, and 34th in his past races this season, it's hard to imagine him not turning up and putting his best foot forward on Sunday. Even when he doesn't win at Sonoma, he's typically in the top-five. In some capacity, it is 100% worth betting on Truex Jr for this event, even if it's a more specific wager like a top five or top 10 finish. He's one to keep an eye on. Oh, he's also first in the Cup Series standings at the moment, too.

Kyle Larson (+800)

Larson is second in the standings, trailing Truex Jr by only 21 points. He has two wins, six top fives, and seven top 10s on the year. Larson's 656 laps led lead the Cup Series and so do his seven stage victories. His results in recent weeks are respectable, finishing second at Dover, first in Kansas, and fourth at the All-Star Race. That being said, Larson doesn't tend to have much success on road courses with his Next Gen car. He only has one top-five finish at Sonoma and that was back in 2021 with a completely different car. Something tells me this won't be Larson's weekend for a third win, but we'll have to see.

Ty Gibbs (+800)

Gibbs isn't usually this high up when it comes to expected contenders, but he's historically done well on road courses. Specifically, Gibbs was third at COTA this season, which is similar to Sonoma. At this race a year ago, he was 18th. Overall this season, Gibbs is in seventh spot with four top fives and eight top 10s. He's still looking for his first win of the campaign. This is only his second race at Sonoma, so it's not a super familiar track for him. However, perhaps Gibbs can build off that success at COTA.

William Byron (+800)

Byron is one of the up-and-comers in the Cup Series and his numbers show it. He's fifth in the standings with three wins, five top fives, and nine top 10s. He had one run already this season where he was first, seventh, first, third, and seventh. That definitely helped his points. Most notably, one of those victories was at COTA. That being said, Byron doesn't have a good track record at Sonoma, never finishing better than ninth. That may be a reason to fade Byron. He was also 15th last weekend in Illinois.

Christopher Bell (+900)

Bell may be eighth in the table but he's had some respectable results in 24'. He's won twice, notched four top fives, and eight top 10s. Bell just won at Charlotte before coming seventh last Sunday. As for road courses, he's had some success. Bell was a runner-up to Byron at COTA earlier in the year and was ninth at Sonoma last season. We'll see if he can turn up and produce on Sunday.

Chase Elliott (+950)

Elliott is one who is just destined to finally win at Sonoma. He rarely finishes outside of the top 10 on this track , finishing second, eighth, and fifth in his last three outings there. Needless to say, he's due. Elliott was is slowly getting his form back after a forgettable 2023 season and the output is promising. He's third in the standings and has two top 10 finishes in his last three appearances. Elliott's only win came in Fort Worth. It does feel like he could legitimately win on Sunday.

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Picks

While Truex Jr seems like the obvious pick, I'm going to take a shot and go with Chase Elliott. All his past results at Sonoma point to a victory.

Chase Elliott To win
+950
BetOnline

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Meet the author

Quinn Allen

Quinn Allen leverages his broadcast journalism degree and passion for sports in his betting previews and analysis. Based in Kelowna, Canada, he has emerged as an expert voice with picks featured on OSB, MTS, SBD, and as a ClutchPoints editor. With a lifelong fandom of...

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