Why the Boston Celtics Will Win Game 7 Over the Miami Heat

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: May 28, 2023 08:00 PM
Why the Boston Celtics Will Win Game 7 Over the Miami Heat

Nobody saw this coming. Not analysts, not fans, not the Miami Heat, not the Boston Celtics themselves. And yet, it happened. It's still happening. The Celtics have a chance to make NBA playoffs history with a win over the Heat in Game 7.

Here's everything you need to know about the next 2023 Eastern Conference Finals matchup:

  • What: Celtics vs. Heat Game 7
  • Date: Monday, May 29
  • Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
  • Where: TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts
  • Series Score: Boston and Miami are tied 3-3

Though the talk entering Game 7 will be focused on the Celtics' chance to make history by erasing a 3-0 series deficit and advancing to the NBA Finals, Boston has actually already put themselves in the record books. They are now the first team to fall down 3-0 and force a Game 7 while also having home-court advantage. This is truly wild stuff.

Many experts still expect the Heat to emerge victorious. They subscribe to the law of numbers. History says what the Celtics are attempting to do has never been done before. Boston was also an epic, buzzer-beating tip-in shot away from being sent home in Game 6 on Saturday night. There's plenty of reason to be skeptical about their chances. However, the latest 2023 NBA playoff betting odds don't follow that logic, as you can see below:

To WinBetOnlineBovadaBetUS
Boston Celtics-320-280-320
Boston Celtics+260+225+258

Please remember to double-check these NBA online betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 7 betting odds are accurate as of Sunday, May 28. The lines will shift ahead of the opening tip on Monday, May 29, at 8:30 p.m. EST. And even if they move just ever so slightly, you'll want to make sure you're using the latest information to make your Heat vs. Celtics picks. 

To that end, is this Boston vs. Miami Game 7 matchup as cut and dry as oddsmakers are making out to be? Like, should the Celtics really be the heavy favorites? Or will the Heat successfully prevent themselves from tilting toward the wrong side of history? Let's get to our Eastern Conference Finals Game 7 picks!

It's Time to Pick the Boston Celtics Over the Miami Heat

In the interest of transparency, this Celtics vs. Heat playoff series has burned us on numerous occasions. We sided with Boston entering the matchup. In fact, we picked them to win the first three games. Those projections clearly didn't pan out. We then predicted they'd lose Game 4. We were wrong again. We correctly picked the Celtics to win Game 5. But then we had them losing in Game 6.

This is all to say: Getting a firm hold on this series has been difficult. That's the nature of the Celtics. In a make-or-miss league, they are the epitome of make-or-miss. When Boston is draining their threes in high volume, they are a dominant basketball team that locks in on defense and takes care of the ball. When they start missing their jumpers, they begin to slow down, commit turnovers, take bad shots and collapse on defense. Game 6 saw both versions of the Celtics make a cameo. They shot poorly from deep in the first half. But then they caught fire later in the second half. And then, in another twist, they blew a 10-point lead with four minutes to play.

Plenty of people won't trust Boston to take care of business in Game 7. We understand that doubt. But we're picking the Celtics to win. Playing at home is a big deal, and even as their offense has struggled for pockets of time, they clearly have more half-court safety valves than a Miami team missing Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo.

And not for nothing, but the Heat have to be emotionally spent. Perhaps Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo will fare better in Game 7 after struggling from the floor in Game 6. But Miami fought all the way back from down 10 points, grabbed a one point lead with three seconds to play and still managed to lose Game 6 at the buzzer. It's hard enough to mentally come back from that. It's even harder to do on the road, with your offense now three games deep into a rust.

OSB Prediction: Boston Celtics (-320)

Boston Celtics To beat the Miami Heat

Oddsmakers Don't Seem to Think Celtics vs. Heat will Game 7 Will Be That Much of Nail-Biter

With the exception of two games, this series has featured a number of exceptionally close contests. Each and every time the Celtics have played at home, though, they've been laying a ton of points.

That isn't changing ahead of Game 7. Check out the latest NBA point spread betting odds for Celtics vs. Heat:

  • Boston Celtics, -7.5 (-110)
  • Miami Heat, +7.5 (-110)

This surprises us. Especially given how closely contested Game 6 ended up being. Maybe the Heat will fold after such a heartbreaking loss. But head coach Erik Spoelstra is among the best in the business at making adjustments, and you have to believe Butler won't possibly go 5-of-21 from the floor again.

We should be in for another epic finish, so Miami's point spread is our preference. And with this in mind, we'd strongly consider parlaying their point spread with Boston's moneyline. Going this route will make you eligible for a 1.5-to-1 payout, which turns this bet into a significantly more lucrative endeavor. And if you need to find a site that will let you place same-game parlays, well, we've got you covered. Our reviews of the best online sportsbooks are chock full of reliable and versatile odds providers.

OSB Prediction: Miami Heat (-7.5)

Miami Heat To cover the point spread against the Boston Celtics

Are We in for Yet Another Low-Scoring Matchup in Game 7

"Under" bettors will have made a bunch of money over the past three games. Oddsmakers keep lowering the final tally, and both Boston and Miami keep failing to clear it.

Guess what? The latest over/under betting odds for Celtics vs. Heat are even lower for Game 7:

  • Over 203 (-110)
  • Under 203 (-110)

Every single game this series has hit the 207-point threshold or gone higher. Essentially, then, oddsmakers are saying Heat vs. Celtics Game 7 will be the lowest-scoring contest of the Eastern Conference Finals.

That's a risky proposition. The offensive totals may be the downturn with players exhausted from logging so many minutes, but we can't get behind assuming one of these squads will fail to reach the 100-point marker in the biggest game of the season.

OSB Prediction: Over 203 (-110)

Celtics and Heat To score over 203 combined points

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that meets all of your 2023 NBA playoffs betting needs:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan Favale leverages over 12 years of sports journalism expertise in his role as New York staff writer. He provides in-depth analysis across the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, tennis, NASCAR, college basketball, and sports betting. Dan co-hosts the popular Hardwood Knocks NBA podc...

Online Sports Betting may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. Rest assured, we avoid biases and provide honest opinions on sportsbooks. Read more here.