NBA Picks: Can Golden State Warriors End Road Woes vs. OKC Thunder?

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Mar 6, 2023 07:00 PM
NBA Picks: Can Golden State Warriors End Road Woes vs. OKC Thunder?

After a tumultuous roller coaster ride through the first three-quarters of the NBA regular season, the Golden State Warriors are starting to look like a championship contender again. But is their ascent coming too little too late?

Linemakers don't think so. The Warriors have top five odds to win the 2023 NBA Finals, even though they technically aren't even guaranteed a playoff spot. Granted, the chances of them not making the postseason are slim. FiveThirtyEight's statistical model paints them as a mathematical formality, giving them an 87 percent chance of cracking the playoff bracket.

Still, if the Warriors are going to repeat as champions, they need to start winning on the road. They have been abysmal away from Chase Center all season long, going 7-23 in enemy territory. But that, again, isn't stopping linemakers from giving Golden State their due. They are favored to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder, on the road, Tuesday night. Here's a look at the latest NBA online betting odds for this matchup

To WinBovadaBetOnlineBetUS
Golden State Warriors-167-180-175
Oklahoma City Thunder+130+140+130

Remember to double-check these online NBA betting odds until actually submitting your wager. Our Warriors vs. Thunder betting odds are accurate as of Monday, March 6. Linemakers will have plenty of time to adjust the numbers before opening tip-off on Tuesday, March 7, at 8 p.m. EST.

Of course, if you have signed up with a reputable sportsbook, you needn't sweat any last minute changes to the odds on the Thunders vs. Warriors game. That's why we've built a catalog of reviews on the the top online sportsbooks. We want to make it as easy as possible for you to find the best online NBA betting sites in 2023.

Can the Warriors begin turning things around when they play on the road? Or should you take a look at the Thunder to pull off the upset on Tuesday night? Let's find out!

The Golden State Warriors Have Not Won on the Road Since January 30...and We Don't Care

No team in the NBA has been more Jekyll-and-Hyde when it comes to playing at home vs. playing on the road. The Warriors, as we mentioned, are 7-23 as the away team. But the Dubs are also a dominant 27-7 as the home squad. It doesn't make much sense.

Defense has been Golden State's Achilles heel in these situations. The Warriors are allowing 120.2 points per 100 possessions on the road—the third-worst mark in the entire NBA. The offense hasn't been great, but their inability to get stops is damning. And yet, there might be some bad luck involved. Home teams are shooting 68.9 percent at the rim and about 41 percent from deep against the Warriors. Neither mark is going to hold over the longer term—particularly the scorching-hot clip from beyond the arc.

Sure, it's still troubling that Golden State hasn't won on the road in over a month. But that road win just so happened to come in Oklahoma City, which is where the Warriors are playing on Tuesday. What's more, the Warriors now have Stephen Curry in the lineup after he missed nearly two months with a left shoulder injury. His first game back—a road loss to the Los Angeles Lakers—didn't go according to plan, but he found his groove during the fourth quarter.

There is no overstating the importance of his return. The Warriors' net rating improves by 8.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. He is going to augment everything they do on offense.

Finally, we can't be sure the Thunder will be at full strength. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is dealing with an abdominal strain, and Oklahoma City has said they're going to monitor his minutes the rest of the way. If he sits out or doesn't play his typical amount of minutes, the Thunder will be at a severe disadvantage.

OSB Prediction: Golden State Warriors (-167)

Golden State Warriors To beat the Oklahoma City Thunder

Who is the Better Point Spread Bet: Oklahoma City or Golden State?

Check out the latest NBA point spread betting odds for Warriors vs. Thunder on Tuesday night:

  • Golden State Warriors, -3.5 (-116)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder, +3.5 (-116)

Predicting a Warriors win by four or more points doesn't seem like too much of a leap initially. Again: Stephen Curry is back. That matters.

Still, the Thunder have been tough pulls at home all year. Oklahoma City is outscoring opponents by more than five points per 100 possessions in front of their fans, and they even have one of the better net ratings in losses at home compared to the rest of the league. 

However, prior to their back-to-back home wins over the Utah Jazz last week, the Thunder had lost three straight in Oklahoma City. All of those letdowns came by significantly more than four points. And with SGA's minutes limit uncertain on Tuesday, we think this matchup is primed to be a rut-buster for Golden State.

OSB Prediction: Golden State Warriors, -3.5 (-116)

Golden State Warriors To cover the spread against the Oklahoma City Thunder

Here's Why Thunder vs. Warriors will be a Battle Decided by Offense

Below you can see the latest NBA over/under betting odds for the Thunder vs. Warriors game:

  • Over 238.5 (-110)
  • Under 238.5 (-110)

"Over" bettors have been treated to lucrative returns when the Warriors are on the road. More than 72 percent of their games away from home have cashed on the "over." That's the highest percentage in the NBA by a country mile.

Furthermore, almost 65 percent of Thunder home games have cashed on the "over." That's not an accident. Oklahoma City plays fast, and in recent months, they've even played more efficiently.

With all of this said, the Warriors have not played in a game that clears 238 combined points since Feb. 14. That's almost a month ago. They are no strangers to turning contests into defensive slogs. But the Warriors also haven't had Stephen Curry for nearly two months. Their offense was never going to be as potent. Things will return to normal now, so we feel pretty good about Warriors vs. Thunder hitting the "over."

OSB Prediction: Over 238.5 (-110)

Warriors and Thunder To score over 238.5 points combined

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all of your NBA betting: 

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan Favale leverages over 12 years of sports journalism expertise in his role as New York staff writer. He provides in-depth analysis across the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, tennis, NASCAR, college basketball, and sports betting. Dan co-hosts the popular Hardwood Knocks NBA podc...

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