NBA 2022 Playoff Picks: May 7, 2022

Paolo Go
By , Updated on: Sep 4, 2022 08:00 PM
NBA 2022 Playoff Picks: May 7, 2022

The NBA Conference Semifinals shift as the Milwaukee Bucks and Golden State Warriors host the Boston Celtics and Memphis Grizzlies, respectively. The betting odds favor the home teams to go up 2-1 in the series as home teams have generally won in this round. We break down the NBA betting odds for this Saturday's matchups.

The 2022 NBA Playoffs continue on Saturday with two matchups all knotted 1-1. The NBA online betting odds favor the home teams, the Milwaukee Bucks and Golden State Warriors, to pull ahead of the Boston Celtics and Memphis Grizzlies, respectively. Can the home favorites cash on these sports betting odds or will a road underdog pull off an upset?

NBA 2022 Playoff Picks: Can Home Favorites Cover?

Home teams have covered seven of the eight home games so far in the second round of the 2022 NBA Playoffs. The one team that didn't cover? The Boston Celtics after the Milwaukee Bucks upset them in Game 1. The Celtics can return the favor by spoiling the Bucks' return to the Fiserv Forum.

Away TeamBetOnlineBetOnlineHome Team
Boston Celtics +3-115-105Milwaukee Bucks -3
Boston Celtics ML+120-140MIlwaukee Bucks ML
Away TeamHome Team
Memphis Grizzlies +7-110-110Miami Heat -7
Memphis Grizzlies ML+245-290Miami Heat ML

Defense Has Been Dominant in Celtics-Bucks Series

The Boston Celtics lit up the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 2 and came away with a 23-point win. Most impressive about this blowout win was how Boston held Milwaukee to a season-low 86 points. And while Boston did catch fire to start the game, six of the eight quarters in this series have been a defensive grind.

That is just Milwaukee's MO. This team has not relented from its defensive identity even without Khris Middleton. All seven of Milwaukee's playoff games have gone under the total. In a similar fashion, four of Boston's last five have as well.  Bank on this trend to continue even with the change in zip code.

Milwaukee Grinds Down Boston

The Bucks were caught sleeping by the Celtics as they took control of Game 2 and didn't let up. But the second half of that game saw something more along the lines of Game 1 where both teams struggled to score. Milwaukee will not start slow at home, especially not when they averaged a 119.6 offensive rating against Boston in their two regular-season games in Milwaukee.

The Celtics have covered their last six road games while the Bucks are just 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last six home games. Fortunately, the spread is only three points. While this game will be close, Milwaukee should be able to edge Boston by three or more points.

Milwaukee Bucks -3 Spread

The Biggest Buck Of Them All

Giannis Antetokounmpo may be struggling in this series, but the "Greek Freak" still put up a triple-double in the first game and put up 28 in the next. He could be more efficient but even if Boston continues to "clamp" him, his inordinate usage numbers should still lead to some lofty stat totals.

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Warriors Seek Revenge

This may not show up on any stat sheets or online sports betting guides, but the Golden State Warriors are out for blood after what Dillon Brooks did to Gary Payton II. The mild-mannered Warriors are led by Draymond Green, who will surely have something to say after Brooks' flagrant foul that injured Payton.

But even without the bad blood, the Warriors have outplayed the Memphis Grizzlies except for a stretch that saw Ja Morant go nuclear to carry his team to an upset win in Game 2. We don't see Morant scoring 47 points again. The Warriors should handle business at home, where they have won five straight and have covered 56.4 percent of the time as a favorite (22-17-2).

Golden State Warriors -7 Spread

Grizzlies-Warriors Bet 2: Under

The Golden State Warriors have the league's best defense at home: a 103.6 defensive rating, which is 2.6 points better than the next best home team (Boston). The Warriors may have won fans over with their hot shooting, but it's the team's elite and consistent defense that has rejuvenated it.

Golden State is allowing the lowest field goal percentage (42.3 percent) and second-lowest three-point percentage (32.5 percent) at home. It's mostly why 56.4 percent of this team's home games go under when it's the favorite (identical to their ATS record). Add the added level of physicality between these teams, and we will see a playoff game more reminiscent of the 1990s.

Thompson Back At Home

Klay Thompson was MIA in his last game against the Memphis Grizzlies. But look for the Golden State Warriors star to be a flamethrower this Saturday. Thompson plays more effectively at home, where his true shooting percentage bumps up to 58.8 percent (from 55.9) and his offensive rating to 110 (from 105). Four of his six highest-scoring games this season also happened at the Chase Center.

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Meet the author

Paolo Go

Paolo brings a wealth of basketball and hockey knowledge to his expert analysis of the NBA and NHL. With over 7 years experience as a sports writer, he provides seasoned advice and decisive picks. Paolo got his start locally in Toronto before joining prominent outlets...

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