Has there ever been as much speculation on a sitting U.S. President to leave office as Joe Biden? Recent memory suggests no, which might be an indictment on Biden himself. But hey, we’re here to focus on the betting potential of a Biden exit cause yes, you can put money on it. Read our expert betting advice on it here!
Biden’s Exit Betting Odds
Political-based betting sites have put odds up on a Biden exit. As it stands, the betting favorite is a 2025 exit — meaning the end of his current term. Here’s the list of betting options:
| Exit Date |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| 2024 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| 2025 | -180 | -180 | -180 |
| Not Before 2026 | +175 | +175 | +175 |
You can interpret the 2025 exit in one of two ways. The first is that Biden isn’t re-elected President in 2024. He’s already announced his 2024 campaign bid so a second term is very much in his plans. Other Democratic candidates — Robert Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson — have slim chances of unseating Biden.
It’s early but the polls suggest we’re heading for a Biden vs. Trump rematch in 2024. Trump will be tough to beat out for the Republican ticket despite stiff competition from Ron DeSantis and a few others. Biden beat Trump once, but a lot has changed since the 2020 election — for both men and the United States as a whole. Trump winning this time around is completely viable.
But you can also interpret a 2025 exit in an entirely different way: Biden doesn’t run for re-election after all. Sure, he’s announced a campaign, but things can change. Either Biden pulls out — due to his own will — or he’s forced out by the Democrats in a hush-hush manner. It’s this possibility that’s beginning to gain steam, hence why 2025 is a comfortable betting favorite. We explain why below.
Will Biden Really Run For Re-Election?
Biden is 80 years old. He’ll be 81 in November and about 82 when votes are cast during the 2024 election. His age is starting to become the biggest doubt for Biden re-running for a second term, which would keep him in office until 86 if he wins and doesn’t die. And hey, the latter scenario isn't even morbid to think about given the average life expectancy in the United States is late '70s, which Biden is already past.
His age was always the elephant in the room. However, the global pandemic was a blessing in disguise for Biden’s first Presidential campaign. Because of it, public appearances were mostly shelved. That allowed Biden’s team to draft his message without the man actually fumbling it on stage or on TV. But a 2024 campaign won’t have the same luxury.
We’ve seen Biden constantly fumble over himself as of late — both figuratively and literally. The latest incident was at an Air Force Academy commencement speech. Before that, it was on a bike and before that, it was walking up the stairs of the Air Force One jet. All of these have been shared online, which is fueling doubts about his age.
Of course, there are also verbal gaffes. The other day, Biden mistakenly said his administration cured cancer — when he meant to say COVID. Another time he confused the Ukraine War with the Iraq War. We could name many more slip-ups, but you’ve probably already heard them.
All this is to say Biden is probably too old for the job as leader of the free world. But hey, this isn’t just our opinion. If an NBC News poll is to be trusted, 70 percent of Americans don’t want Biden to run again. Of those, 69 percent said age was a factor. The Democrats HAVE to be aware of this, which is why they might be plotting a Plan B as we speak.
If Not Biden, Then Who?
On paper, Kamala Harris would be an obvious choice to succeed Biden. That’s the role of a Vice President, after all. However, Harris has been profoundly mediocre in her role too. While Biden at least has the excuse of being too old, there’s no real way out for Harris. That’s why we’re inclined to think the Democrats are targeting a non-White House person to take Biden’s spot.
That person is Gavin Newsom, the current governor of California — the Democrat haven. Newsom has brought attention to himself by attacking DeSantis Florida, the Republican haven. This is the exact type of fodder that wins national elections, not local elections in California.
Newsom is secretly campaigning for this role and we fully expect him to make it official sometime in the next year. He’s young, he’s good-looking, and he’s far-left — the anti-thesis of Biden in many ways. Expect to vote between Newsom and DeSantis in 2024 as Biden quietly exits the Oval Office. Bank on it too with a bet!
How To Bet On U.S. Politics?
There are many different sports bet types related to politics — not just the one we covered. To get a one-stop shop for betting on U.S. politics, hit one of the bookmakers below. Heck, these sites offer odds on worldwide politics too if you’re into that. The five bookies below rated highest in our latest sportsbook reviews so your money is in good hands no matter where you go.
Online Sports Betting © 2024