After entering the NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals as decided favorites over the Miami Heat, the New York Knicks are now facing elimination in Game 5. Can they live to fight another day? Or will their season end here, in a wildly disappointing fashion against a Heat squad not operating anywhere near full strength?
We'll get to the answer, but first, here's everything you need to know about the state of this 2023 NBA playoffs matchup:
- What: Knicks vs. Heat Game 5
- Date: Wednesday, May 10
- Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
- Where: Madison Square Garden in New York, New York
- Series Score: Miami leads New York 3-1
Nobody saw the Heat holding such a commanding position this late into the postseason. Not only did they need to survive the play-in tournament just to make the playoffs, but they had to beat up on the first-place Milwaukee Bucks in Round 1 to get here. On top of all that, it's not like Miami has been at full capacity. Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo are out for the season, and Jimmy Butler needed to miss Game 2 against the Knicks with an ankle injury. Despite all of that, the Heat now find themselves one win away from the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals.
When it comes to the outcome of this series, linemakers are no longer equivocating. Never mind simply taking down the Knicks. The Heat now have some of the best odds to make the 2023 NBA Finals. Even so, the betting lines for New York vs. Miami Game 5 do not appear to favor the latter:
|New York Knicks
Remember to keep rechecking these 2023 NBA playoff betting odds until you have officially submitted your wager. Our Heat vs. Knicks betting odds are accurate as of Tuesday, May 9. Linemakers will have plenty of time to implement changes ahead of opening tip-off on Wednesday, May 10.
Of course, staying on top of any last-minute alterations to NBA playoff betting lines is a breeze if you've created an account with a trustworthy sportsbook. Like usual, we've got your back there. You'll have no trouble, at all, spotting the best online NBA betting sites if you take the time to peruse our reviews of the top online sportsbooks.
So, can the Knicks save their season and force a Game 6? Or are the Heat just too much for a New York team that no longer looks like a viable threat? Let's get to some Knicks vs. Heat picks!
The Case for the Miami Heat to End the New York Knicks' Season with a Game 6 Victory
Let's call a spade a spade: The Knicks are done. They are losing almost every pertinent battle against the Heat.
Miami is shooting almost 40 percent from deep for the series, compared to New York's 28.2 percent clip. The Heat have the higher offensive rebounding percentage outside garbage time, according to Cleaning the Class. They are winning the transition battle. And most critically, they are nearly doubling up the Knicks when it comes to points scored off turnovers, averaging 20.5 per game to New York's 10.3.
It definitely helps the Knicks that they're playing at home. But they have played better on the road this year, and Miami's supporting cast has actually shot the ball well no matter the setting.
Unless New York can find a way to improve their outside shooting and limit Miami's aggression off turnovers, they're out of luck. This is to say: We believe they're out of luck.
OSB Prediction: Miami Heat (+132)
Should You Hedge Your Bets on Miami Winning Game 6 Over New York?
Throughout NBA history, teams that head home trailing a best-of-seven series 3-1 have scraped together a victory in Game 5. If you're worried about the Heat shirking that trend and winning on the road Wednesday, you could look to invest in their point spread. But are the margins worth it? See for yourself. Here are the latest NBA point spread betting odds for Heat vs. Knicks Game 5:
- New York Knicks, -3.5 (-110)
- Miami Heat, +3.5 (-110)
This spread doesn't assuage your risk all that much. Every game in this series has been decided by at least six points, so the victor has been winning by pretty decided margins. We'd rather take the Heat at a roughly 1.3-to-1 payout to win outright.
Still, this offers good value if you're a little hesitant. Neither the Knicks nor Heat have exactly lit the world on fire offensively, and there's always the chance Miami labors through an uglier performance if they get shooting regression from Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson or Max Strus.
OSB Prediction: Miami Heat, 3.5 (-110)
Don't Hold Your Breath for an Offensive Explosion in Knicks vs. Heat
Most of this Miami vs. New York series has been a defensive battle. Will that continue in Game 5? The latest NBA over/under betting odds for Knicks vs. Heat suggest it won't:
- Over 209.5 (-110)
- Under 209.5 (-110)
The Knicks and Heat have cleared 210 points exactly twice this series. But that's not as telltale as it seems. The totals in those games were 210 and 211—which means they just barely cleared the bar. Through and through, this battle between New York and Miami has been a slower-paced slugfest.
Given how well the Heat are shooting from distance, we're almost inclined to roll the dice on the "over" anyway. But the Knicks are laying brick after brick from beyond the arc themselves, and they're not getting nearly enough efficient nights from Julius Randle or their bench players to bet on an offensive breakout.
Plus, New York has hit more than 101 points once all series. And without the personnel to make serious adjustments, we see this one headed for another low-end final score.
OSB Prediction: Under 209.5 (-110)
Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all of your NBA playoffs betting: