2022 MLB Futures: Best Bets to Win Baseball's Home Run Title Include Aaron Judge, Mike Trout

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Sep 4, 2022 08:00 PM
2022 MLB Futures: Best Bets to Win Baseball's Home Run Title Include Aaron Judge, Mike Trout

Check out our best bets to win the 2022 MLB Home Run Title.

Every now and then, it can be good to take a break from your usual, run-of-the-mill betting odds on MLB. After all, it's a long season, because 162 games is a lot of games. You need to keep things fresh. And with the quarter pole right around the corner, why not deviate from the mundane single-game picks for some 2022 MLB futures and the best bets to win baseball's Home Run Title, a race currently headlined by everyone from Mike Trout and Aaron Judge to Yordan Alvarez and Pete Alonso?

This sounds good to us, so it's exactly what we'll do. Before we get started, let's have a look at the latest odds to win MLB's 2022 Home Run Title:

Pick to WinBetOnline
Aaron Judge+300
Yordan Alvarez+480
Mike Trout+850
Pete Alonso+950
C.J. Cron+1200
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.+1400
Giancarlo Stanton+1600
Byron Buxton+1700
Jose Ramirez+2500
Bryce Harper+3000
Shohei Ohtani+3000
Kyle Schwarber+3500
Nolan Arenado+4000
Juan Soto+4800
Anthony Rizzo+5000
Rafael Devers+5500
Hunter Renfroe+5500
Matt Olson+6000
Salvador Perez+7000
Manny Machado+7000
Ronald Acuna Jr.+7000
Austin Riley+7000
George Springer+7000
Rowdy Tellez+8500
Rhys Hoskins+8500
Taylor Ward+8500
Christian Walker+8500
Joey Gallo+10000
Jorge Soler+10000
Jose Abrue+10000
Nick Castellanos+10000
Joc ederson+10000
Willy Adames+10000
Jose Altuve+10000
Mookie Betts+11000

As always, make sure you are double-checking these MLB futures before settling on any wagers. There's a lot of season left to play, and our baseball betting odds are accurate as of Friday, May 20. A lot can change between now and the end of the year. So check back frequently to see where every player stands in the home run race if you're not already invested in one of them.

With so much time to spare, it's also a great idea to peruse our collection of reviews on the top online sportsbooks. By the time you're through with all of them, you'll have all the necessary tools to map out the best sites for MLB betting in 2022.

Should Aaron Judge be the Favorite to Win the 2022 Home Run Crown?

Aaron Judge (+300) is offering great value as the odds-on favorite. A 3-to-1 payout is incredibly enticing for someone who currently leads Major League Baseball in home runs on the year. Studies have been done that show the home run king is often set around 50 or so games into the schedule. Judge is now circling that point.

Linemakers still don't appear entirely sold, though. Someone jacking dingers at his rate, with a .664 slugging percentage, would normally be a +150 or something like that. But this is uncharted territory for Judges, who has yet to play like this for his career. Many may fear that he'll come crashing down to solid ground.

That doesn't faze us. Judge is in a contract year after failing to reach terms with the New York Yankees on an extension, and players in his situation are no stranger to balling out. Perhaps he doesn't continue at his current pace, which is around 60 homes across 154 games played. That doesn't matter. He's an appealing option as long as he remains healthy.

Aaron Judge To win 2022 MLB Home Run Title

Oddsmakers are Undervaluing Mike Trout

How in the heck is Mike Trout (+850) sitting here at an 8.5-to-1 payout? Like, seriously? Yes, his +850 represents the fourth-best odds on the market, but that's still a much too distant fourth relative to the odds-on favorite, Aaron Judge. 

Oddsmakers, of course, are reacting to the lack of action being placed on him. We can only assume that bettors are terrified of his availability. Trout has dealt with injuries in the past, and the Los Angeles Angels would prefer to conserve him. As it stands, he's already missed five games this season.

And yet, should that matter? He's healthy now, and he's notching a .689 slugging percentage. At his current pace, Trout will uncork 45 homers while appearing in just under 145 games. That's a smaller trajectory than Judge's projected arc, but things can change quickly when there's more than three-quarters of the season left to play.

Mike Trout To win 2022 MLB Home Run Title

Better MLB Futures Bet: Yordan Alvarez or Pete Alonso?

With Yordan Alvarez (+950) and Pete Alonso (+950) laying identical odds, we find ourselves inclined to pick one. And forced to choose, we're going with Alvarez.

It may absolutely matter that Alonso is on pace to make more plate appearances. On the flip side, it also may not. Alvarez currently has one more homer than Alonso across more than 30 fewer at bats. So long as he remains healthy, Alvarez is the more enticing betting option.

Yordan Alvarez To win 2022 MLB Home Run Title

Do Not Forget About Giancarlo Stanton

Bettors clearly aren't jumping on Giancarlo Stanton (+1600), otherwise, he wouldn't be paying out 16-to-1. We get trepidation.

It seems like forever since Stanton was healthy for an entire season. And none of his healthiest campaigns have come during his time in New York.

Still, Stanton will belt somewhere between 45 and 48 homers at his current pace. That demands some attention in a race so wide-open.

Giancarlo Stanton To win 2022 MLB Home Run Title

Can Shohei Ohtani Enter the Home Run Title Chase?

In all honesty, you're probably better off avoiding Shohei Ohtani (+3000) on the home run futures front. Because he also pitches, there's more potential for wear and tear or simply rest maintenance.

Then again, Ohtani has appeared in nearly every game this season, missing only one. If you think his availability will hold, and that he'll tick up his current home-run pace (the mid-30s), there are worse investments you could make.

Shohei Ohtani To win 2022 MLB Home Run Title

Best MLB Home Run Title Bet is...Mike Trout

For the time being, you almost can't go wrong with your MLB Home Run Title pick. We're defaulting to Trout. His odds are too alluring at 8.5-to-1.

Aaron Judge is obviously a quality option, as well. But he doesn't have a track record of hitting at this torrid pace for an entire year. Trout does. We'd strongly recommend jumping on his odds before he potentially becomes the odds-on favorite entering the midway point of the season over the summer.

Mike Trout To win 2022 MLB Home Run Title

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all of your 2022 MLB betting:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan Favale leverages over 12 years of sports journalism expertise in his role as New York staff writer. He provides in-depth analysis across the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, tennis, NASCAR, college basketball, and sports betting. Dan co-hosts the popular Hardwood Knocks NBA podc...

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