How Much Popular Vote Will Donald Trump Win In 2024?

Eric Uribe
By , Updated on: Apr 9, 2024 08:00 PM
How Much Popular Vote Will Donald Trump Win In 2024?

Donald Trump, the cult of personality, is almost a lay-up to win the Republican nominee for President. So much that top-used betting sites for politics have odds out on how much of the popular vote Trump will win during the 2024 US Presidential election. We have betting predictions of our own so stay with us.

First thing is first though, let’s take a look at these Trump popular vote odds. Mind you, this bet is only on if Trump indeed wins the Republican ticket. But if he does, here are the betting options for what percentage of the popular vote Trump earns:

Popular Vote PercentageMyBookieBetUSBetOnline
40.1 to 545+300+300+300
45.1 to 50+145+145+145
50.1 to 55+550+550+550
55.1 to 60+600+600+600
More than 60+400+400+400

Trump Surging In 2024 Polls

We’re 10 months away from the election. It’s early, but by all accounts, Trump is gaining on the 2024 polls. This trend is playing out across states, ages, ethnicities, and even news sources — the liberal paper New York Times has reported Trump’s gains too.

Last November, NYT led with the following headline: “Trump leads in five critical states as voters blast Biden.” The article went further, saying Trump is leading Biden in key battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. All leads were by at least four percentage points too. Biden’s only battleground lead came in Wisconsin. Across the six battlegrounds, Trump led the current president on average 48-4.

Elsewhere, Trump is polling better with Hispanic and youth voters — demographics that historically lean liberal in a big way. Days ago, the USA Today reported that 39 percent of Hispanic voters said they’re favoring Mr Trump compared to 34 percent for Biden. To put the numbers in perspective, Biden polled 65 percent with Hispanics in 2020. The same thing played out with young voters. The same report said they would vote Trump to the tune of 37 percent versus 33 for Biden. If true, these are both major flips.

Inevitably, the question becomes can these polls even be trusted? Well, it’s been a rough go for polling as a whole since 2016 — the same year almost every poll had Hilary Clinton beating Trump comfortably. Of course, we all know what happened next. Similarly, 2022 polls predicted a “red wave” in midterms which never happened. All this is to say you just never really know until you know.

Trump 2024 Predictions

Before we can truly predict how Trump will fare in the 2024 US election popular vote, we need to answer one massive question: will he even be on the voting ballot?

Will Trump Be On The Ballot?

Trump’s biggest obstacle to the Republican nominee isn’t any candidate like Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. His biggest obstacle is the U.S. Constitution.

You may have read that both the state of Colorado and Maine want to remove Trump from the ballot — for the Republican primaries and possibly the general election. Both are arguing Trump violated the 14th amendment’s “insurrection clause” during the January 6 riots on Capitol Hill. Of course, Trump is fighting back against it.

This will likely be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court. While it’s a good story, it’s probably a nothing burger like prior impeachment and Russiagate distractions. We’re quite confident the Supreme Court will side with Trump and pave his path for 2024.

What Percentage Of Popular Vote Will Trump Win?

All right, here’s what we came for. When predicting Trump’s popular vote performance, we first have to level-set things using 2016 and 2020 data.

In 2016, Trump actually lost the popular vote against Clinton but did win the electoral college. Trump got 46.1 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 48.2 percent.

Trump performed eerily similar in 2020. He earned 46.8 percent to Biden’s 51.3. Of course, Trump contested those results but this article isn’t the place to open up that can of worms.

The point is clear: Trump has never gotten 47 percent of the vote or better. Therefore, we strongly, strongly doubt Trump would be able to grab 50 percent or above. We don’t care what people think of Biden, that’s a huge jump for any candidate to make, little less for one as polarizing as Trump.

Our bet is squarely going on the 45 to 50 percent range. We don’t buy the polls that Trump is running away with this election. No way — it’s going down to the wire like the last two involving Trump. Who won, we don’t know yet as so much can happen from now until November.

Popular vote in 45.1 to 50 percent range for Donald Trump in 2024 U.S. election

How To Bet On US Politics?

This Trump special bet is just one of many available at online sportsbooks. To get a complete list of US political bets, we recommend visiting one of the underneath betting sites. They already have a bunch of betting lines up, but more will be added as we go along, including primaries in individual states.

Reference the table if you’re not sure where to bet. We’ve included links to our unbiased sportsbook reviews and details on current promotional bonuses. Compare sites using both pieces of information. Once you have a site, you realistically have a one-stop shop for all political betting.

Meet the author

Eric Uribe

Eric has been passionate about sports since he was 10 years old. He brings over 10 years of sports journalism experience to his expert coverage of sports betting. Hailing from the US, Eric leverages his diverse expertise covering sports at all levels – from high sch...

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