Everlong enemies Barcelona and Real Madrid meet in a pivotal La Liga match this weekend. It hasn’t been a long wait since the last El Clasico, with Barcelona topping their rivals in the Copa del Rey final just last week. A win for Real would make the title race a nail biter with just three games to follow. Read on for an expert Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction and explore stats and tips for El Clasico betting.
- FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid CF
- La Liga
- May 11, 2025
- 10:15 AM EST
- Lluis Companys Olympic Stadium
- ESPN+
Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction: El Clasico Betting Odds
Barcelona is the favorite to win again against Real Madrid. The hosts are (-119) to secure the full 3 points available. That’s good for an implied probability to win of 54.3%. Real Madrid is tagged at (+297), with a draw similarly lined at (+292).
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? Explore the best soccer betting online apps and learn about La Liga betting odds.
Barcelona Close to Clinching Title in Spain
With a four-point lead in the title picture, Barcelona’s chances of winning the league will skyrocket with a victory on Sunday. A 7-point lead with three matches to follow would likely represent an insurmountable deficit. Real will be coming into this fixture with a must-win mentality. Barcelona won the title in 2023, but you’d have to go back to 2019 to find their previous win.
That’s considered a drought by many Barcelona supporters, as Barca and Real typically share La Liga honors along with the rare Atletico Madrid super-season. The last club to win the La Liga not named one of those three was Valencia, winning the title in 2004. Hansi Flick’s side already won the Copa del Rey and remain in contention for the Champions League. Securing a powerful lead in the race for La Liga could give Flick some breathing room with a busy May ahead.
A win for either side is essentially a 6-point swing in the title race, so one could argue a draw would benefit the current leaders. Barcelona defeated Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey, Supercopa de España, and La Liga already this year. A four-match sweep in El Clasico would be quite the feat, especially considering those results may all determine Real’s elimination from trophy contention.
After completing a comeback against Valladolid over the weekend, the club confirmed an injury boost. Robert Lewandowski will be available for selection against Inter. The veteran's goal-scoring ability in clutch situations will likely called upon yet again. The aggregate remains level after the first leg in Barcelona.
Real Madrid’s Last Hope Remains in La Liga
Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid made one of the biggest transfers in soccer history last summer when it acquired Kylian Mbappe from PSG. Fast-forward to May and the purchase has met expectations from a production standpoint. Yet it still feels like a failure: Why? Real are currently trending towards a trophyless season just one year removed from winning 5.
It is Ancelotti’s name I specifically prefaced that setup with, intending to highlight his fingerprints over this club. Following rumors of a potential appointment as manager of the Brazilian national team among other available positions, it is Ancelotti shouldering the lion’s share of the blame for Real’s poor showings. The Italian has refused to discuss his job status until the conclusion of the Spanish soccer calendar, leaving conjecture entirely in the hands of the media.
The overwhelming consensus is that Real Madrid and Carlo Ancelotti will no longer be united at the hip come June. Yet the nexus of his exit, whether by sacking or by choice, is yet to be determined. At any rate, the next manager of Real Madrid will inherit a loaded squad with recent memories of winning trophies. An alluring position for sure, and one that will attract only the best of coaching talents.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction: El Clasico Betting
This fixture has not been close as of late. Barcelona has dominated proceedings in all competitions, knocking Real Madrid out of several competitions and embarrassing them at the Santiago Bernabeu in league play. A 4-0 home defeat at the hands of their biggest rivals does not bode well for Real Madrid’s chances of emerging from Barcelona victorious this weekend.
To make matters worse, Real Madrid’s entire back four is injured. Antonio Rudiger (who is also suspended for throwing an object at a referee), Ferland Mendy, David Alaba, and Dani Carvajal are all out for the rest of the La Liga season. Raul Asencio and Aurelien Tchouameni will likely get nods to start at Montjuic on Sunday. Barcelona’s healthy offense is licking their lips.
My projections indicate Barcelona should be (-159) favorites at home, a significant difference from the current line of (-119). Recent history in El Clasico, injuries, and lower morale in the Real Madrid camp as their manager stands one foot out the door all contribute to clear value for the hosts. I think Barcelona is a great bet to complete the double against their arch-nemesis.
Go with Barcelona to win at (-119) at BetOnline.
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