Inter Miami Betting Picks: Value in TT Market with Messi Playing

Will Chace
By , Updated on: May 8, 2024 08:00 PM
Inter Miami Betting Picks: Value in TT Market with Messi Playing

Montreal, fresh off their Canadian Championship quarterfinal match midweek, will turn around and host star-studded Inter Miami on the weekend. Messi and friends will cross the border as odds-on favorites despite playing away, a testament to their strong run of form recently. It will be up to keeper Jonathan Sirois and his crew of defenders to slow Miami down, a club that has scored at least thrice in their last 4 matches. Read on to access an expert MLS prediction and explore stats and tips for Inter Miami betting.

  • CF Montreal vs Inter Miami
  • Major League Soccer
  • May 11, 2024
  • 7:30 PM EST
  • MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
  • Stade Saputo, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Montreal vs Inter Miami Odds

Inter Miami at (-105) are expected to win this match just over 50% of the time, according to top MLS betting sites. Home supporters can back their side at (+290), while a draw is priced at (+282).

Major League SoccerBetOnlineBetUSBovadaXbetMyBookie
Montreal+283+265+265+255+255
Inter Miami-105-110-110-111-111
Draw+282+290+290+280+280

Want to better understand the 1X2 moneyline market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about MLS betting odds.

Inter Miami Results in 2024

Inter Miami has been one of the hottest teams in the MLS this season, scoring an unprecedented 32 goals. The total dwarfs the next-closes LA Galaxy with 21 goals, and has propelled them to a league-high 24 points. Their performance is still heavily reliant on the health of their superstars Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez, however. Miami had to sacrifice many key players to afford to roster such elite athletes, and their defense was never good to begin with.

18 goals allowed is not an alarming number but worth keeping an eye on as the season continues. For reference, 2nd-placed FC Cincinnati has allowed half of that number, albeit with a game to spare. Miami’s style is built for the MLS, with a high pace and a comfortability with a fast pace that leads to high-scoring matches. Make no mistake, this is by design: Tata Martino is a well-respected tactical manager.

Any doubters can be directed to the last four matches from the Herons, in which they have accumulated 16 goals alone. 6 of those 16 came from their match with New York Red Bulls last time out. The high total should come to no surprise to MLS fans who are aware of the high-octane, heavy-pressing nature of NYRB, which played right into Miami’s hands. 4 wins now precede Saturday’s game for Inter Miami, with a 5th considered likely by bookmakers.

Inter Miami To Win
-110
BetUS

Montreal 2024 Season and Injury Updates

Montreal has been a bit of a mixed bag in 2024, as they got off to a hot start but cooled off in recent weeks. Part of their downturn may just be scheduling misfortune, with 9 out of their last 11 games taking place in enemy territory. Finally returning to Quebec in what feels like ages, they will look to put an end to a winless streak that has stretched across 4 games in all competitions. In fact, their lone win since beating Miami back on March 10 came against FC Cincinnati at home, who may have been preoccupied with CONCACAF Champions Cup obligations.

Le CFM manager Courtois faces a daunting array of injuries within the squad. Matias Coccaro, Montreal's striker, is sidelined with a long-term knee problem. Kwadwo Opoku is recovering from an ankle ligament tear, Dominik Yankov has a hamstring strain, and Josef Martinez, a former Miami striker, missed the last game due to a minor injury.

Additionally, Joaquin Sosa was absent last weekend due to a lower leg issue, and Lassi Lappalainen's availability will be determined closer to game time due to a minor injury. Nathan-Dylan Saliba is nursing a sore hip, while Grayson Doody's status remains uncertain due to an ankle problem.

Montreal To Win
+283
BetOnline

Montreal vs Inter Miami Betting Prediction

While it is tempting to ride the train until the wheels fall off, the Inter Miami odds we are getting in this spot seems a bit too pricey. Miami has won 7 of their first 12 games this season, and at (-105), we would be backing them to win here over half the time, on the road. The MLS is a league that heavily favors home field advantage, and Montreal is no slouch. 

Therefore, we must look into the totals market, a place I have gone to many a time this season in Miami games. The total is at 3, a high number for the MLS. Miami is a ball-dominant team, which is why they have been so successful in the MLS. Most teams don’t care too much to hold the ball, especially on turf. Indeed, Montreal fits that description with the 4th-lowest possession in the league.

As Montreal suits up on Saturday after just playing a few days prior, they may look to keep this game slow and close in hopes of earning a draw. This plays right into Miami’s hands, and I see few opportunities outside set pieces for injury-laden Montreal to get their offense set up. Montreal converted on set pieces multiple times the last time these two played each other, but set pieces can be more luck than anything. For a half unit, I’ll back Montreal to score no more than once on what should be a tilted field to the away side on Saturday night.

Under 1.5 Montreal Total Goals
-170
BetUS

Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.

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Meet the author

Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports an...

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