Atletico for 2023/24 La Liga Upset

Jane Barrett
By , Updated on: Aug 10, 2023 12:00 AM
Pick Sweden to beat Spain

Barcelona and Real Madrid are once again dominating the betting for La Liga, but Atletico Madrid looks a good pick to create an upset.

Who do Bettors Favor?

According to the best bookmakers (and you can check out our top sportsbook reviews here) bettors are finding it hard to separate Real Madrid and Barcelona. The reigning champion Barcelona is priced at around +140 while Real Madrid is the favorite with bettors at +140. Atletico Madrid is regarded as the next best contender at +1000, while Sevilla leads the chasing pack at +3000.

La Liga WinnerBetOnlineMyBookieBetUS
Real Madrid+100+102Evens
Barcelona+140+137+135
Atletico Madrid+1000+900+900
Sevilla+3300+3400+3000
Real Sociedad+4000+4300+4000
Villarreal+5000+5200+5000
Real Betis+10000+8000+10000
Atletico Bilbao+10000+9500+8000

OSB La Liga Betting Briefing

Last season Barcelona reclaimed La Liga, recording its 27th league success, and closing the gap on Real Madrid, which holds 35 overall. Between them, the two giants of Spanish football have won roughly two-thirds of all Spanish league titles, and since 2005, only one other team has claimed the crown: Atletico Madrid in 2014 and 2021.

Any La Liga futures betting plan, therefore, has to start with the three biggest teams in Spain, although there are other challengers to check out, such as Real Sociedad, which finished in fourth spot, while Villarreal, Real Betis and Sevilla have all become contenders in recent seasons.

OSB La Liga Betting Favorites

Barcelona was tipped by many pundits to sustain a stronger challenge last season but few expected the financially-restricted club to do as well as it did, winning the league by 10 points and conceding only 20 goals across 38 games.

However, Xavi's squad is not considered the favourite heading into this campaign, and there is significant doubt about Barca's capacity to uphold those 2022–23 standards. Ilkay Gundogan's arrival is certainly a boost, but Jordi Alba, Sergio Busquets, and Ousmane Dembele have left the team and it looks weaker than it did this time last year.

Real has lost Karim Benzema, but it has gained Jude Bellingham, who is a tremendous addition to the midfield, and striker Joselu may turn out to be a really astute purchase. In preseason friendlies, Carlo Ancelotti has been experimenting with a midfield diamond and there have been some early defensive issues, although Ancelotti, one of Europe's finest coaches, should be able to fix them.

The biggest ace that Real Madrid can play, of course, is the signing of Kylian Mbappe. Not confirmed at the time of writing, that would tip the balance decisively in Real’s favor. But with bettors going heavily on both Real and Barcelona, the value could lie elsewhere.

OSB La Liga Contenders

Atletico Madrid must be the first place to look for La Liga contenders. After once again placing third last time, Diego Simeone's club is the only one to have broken up the Big Two dominance in recent seasons and is still the most likely to do it this time.

The 2022–23 season got off to a terrible start, but Simeone's return to the fundamentals and the kind of football that has made this team so difficult to play against for so many seasons was the turning point. With 16 assists and 15 goals, Antoine Griezmann concluded the season as perhaps the best attacking player in La Liga, and Atletico Madrid outscored Barcelona in the second half of the season.

Real could take time to settle defensively and the defending champion is looking weaker this summer, so this is an ideal opportunity for Atletico to break up their dominance.

”Atletico To win La Liga
BetOnline
+1000

OSB Top Four Betting

Real Sociedad improved upon finishes of sixth, fifth, and fifth in the three seasons prior to end up in fourth last time after yet another outstanding campaign directed by Imanol Alguacil. Will he be able to lead this group to another top-four finish? Although it is entirely possible the absences of David Silva, Asier Illarramendi, and Alexander Sorloth might make it tougher than the odds suggest.

Sevilla appears to be a better choice. Three managers led the team in 2022–23, which finished 12th in the league. However, the team was in much better shape in the second half of the season and went on to win another Europa League championship under the charismatic Jose Luis Mendilibar, who is now the head coach on a permanent basis.

The Sevilla club may not appear to be a match for the top three, but it is experienced and confident after the manner it closed the previous campaign. Additionally, the return of Lucas Ocampos following a stint at Ajax is a significant plus and will bring another attacking danger. Although it is improbable that Mendilibar’s team will challenge for La Liga, a top-four finish is still possible.

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Meet the author

Jane Barrett

With over 15 years of experience, Jane Barrett is a respected journalist in the sports betting industry. Jane has lent her expertise to major outlets including Betfair, ESPN, and Sporting Life during her prolific career. As a leading writer covering the sports bettin...

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