- Stade Rennais FC vs Paris Saint-Germain, Ligue 1
- October 8, 2023
- 2:45 PM EST
- Roazhon Park, Rennes, Brittany, France
- FuboTV
Stade Rennais FC hosts Paris Saint-Germain in a fixture that has gone their way in the past two years. Rennes have won 3 out of the last 4 editions, with only 1 goal conceded throughout. To make a Rennes vs PSG prediction, one must factor in The Parisians’ last few underwhelming performances. Continue reading to find out the value play to bet on and discover insights on the past PSG vs Rennes results.
Rennes vs PSG Prediction: What are the Betting Odds?
Although Stade Rennais will be boosted by the inspiring chorus of their supporters, Paris Saint-Germain are pegged as favorites in this Sunday affair. PSG are tagged at (+110) to win this match. Conversely, Rennes are priced at (+260) at the top-reviewed sportsbook BetOnline, giving them an implied probability of earning all 3 available points at 27.8%. A draw, which has been the outcome of 5 of Rennes’ first 7 matches in this Ligue 1 campaign, is lined at (+285).
| Ligue 1 |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes | +260 | +250 | +240 | +255 | +250 |
| PSG | +107 | +105 | +110 | -102 | +105 |
| Draw | +265 | +260 | +260 | +285 | +260 |
To better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market, see our tips for online soccer betting.
Ligue 1: A Cross-Border Competition with AS Monaco
Ligue 1 is a highly-respected soccer competition that represents France’s top flight of their league system. Historically composed of 20 teams, 4 teams will be relegated and only 2 promoted at the conclusion of the 2023-24 campaign to reduce the total to 18. Ligue 1 is ranked as the fifth-best promotion in Europe and is dominated by world-renowned Paris Saint-Germain.
Interestingly enough, the presence of AS Monaco within Ligue 1 makes it technically a cross-border competition. Monaco maintains sovereignty as an official city-state and microstate on the French Riviera. The city-state is well known for its gambling facilities such as the Monte Carlo Casino. A direct railway from Paris made it a popular leisurely destination for gamblers and sports bettors dating back to the 19th century.
Rennes vs PSG Prediction: Disciplined Home Side
Rennes has yet to lose a game in Ligue 1 this season, but have only managed to win a pair of matches so far. 5 draws have limited the club’s points accumulation, and they will be looking to capitalize on a great opportunity at home this weekend. This disciplined side is extremely difficult to beat at Roazhon Park, dropping only 4 games at the stadium last year.
PSG’s popular status and brand name may be over-inflating the current line. However, Stade Rennais has failed to capitalize on many favorable matchups. Their propensity to finish games level may make a bet on a draw worth looking at. If you can’t pick a side, XBet is offering (+285) on this match to end tied.
Paris Saint-Germain Falling Short as of Late
Paris Saint-Germain lost in convincing fashion to Newcastle, 4-1, in their Champions League match last time out. PSG’s manager Luis Enrique opted for a unique approach to get by Newcastle’s notoriously difficult press, but it failed to lead to positive results. While I can agree the scoreline may not have reflected the true performance, as Enrique told to reporters, his bold design doomed the club.
Prior to their trip to St. James’ Park, Paris Saint-Germain remained level with Clermont Foot in a puzzling outcome. A win would have pushed The Parisians to the top of Ligue 1, but they failed to produce a single goal. An opportunity for a late penalty was denied by the head referee, who deemed the challenge to be fair and opted to give star Kylian Mbappe a yellow card for simulation. Bettors can enjoy plus money if they believe PSG can turn things around on Sunday.
Past PSG vs Rennes Results and Expected Goals Stats
While Paris Saint-Germain just recently boasted a star-studded cast featuring superstars Lionel Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappe, it did not translate to success against Stade Rennais. Rennes have clearly had the upper hand over PSG since 2021. The Red and Blacks have emerged victorious in 3 out of the last 4 league matches between the two. Furthermore, PSG have only hit the back of the net once across all 360 minutes of match play.
Paris Saint-Germain and Stade Rennais hold the top two spots in Ligue 1 Expected Goals Differential (xGD), respectively. PSG has generated over 2 Expected Goals per game while allowing just over 1 Expected Goal per game defensively. Rennes Expected Goals metrics of 1.77 Expected Goals For and 1.22 Expected Goals Against also show their dominance analytically.
However, it's essential to acknowledge that we're just 7 games into the season. Expected goals statistics can be misleading in small sample sizes, particularly because PSG has frequently taken early leads in their matches. When teams are behind, there are more opportunities to accumulate expected goals at a surprisingly high rate, which can deviate from the typical flow of the game. Consequently, this accumulation of expected goals may not accurately represent the actual performance of both teams.
Betting Breakdown, Free Pick, and Rennes vs PSG Prediction
Stade Rennais’ home success, combined with its recent triumphs over PSG, loom large in this matchup from a betting perspective. I think Rennes takes home all 3 points at a higher clip than 27.8%, so I see a lot of value on the (+260) number BetOnline is currently hanging.
PSG is a great club and there will be many bright days ahead of them. But at this moment, they are in a bit of a rut and I don’t see a trip to Roazhon Park being the time they will snap out of their funk. Give me Rennes at a juicy number to defeat PSG on home soil.
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