St. Louis vs Portland: Can Timbers Get Another Draw?

St. Louis CITY hosts the Portland Timbers on Saturday night in a weekend characterized by few MLS games on the slate. Portland has turned it up as of late, going unbeaten in their last 3 games to pull ahead of St. Louis in the Western Conference standings. Meanwhile, a win on Saturday would be St. Louis’ first in 5 tries. Read on for an expert St. Louis vs Portland prediction and explore stats and a breakdown for MLS betting in 2024.

MLS Matchday 18 of 37
June 8, 2024 (Saturday)
8:30 PM EST
CITYPARK, St. Louis, Missouri, USA
St. Louis CITY SC vs Portland Timbers

St. Louis vs Portland Timbers Odds

St. Louis are (-132) favorites to get their long-awaited victory this weekend at CITYPARK, their newest home. The Portland Timbers are (+330) underdogs. Interestingly, the draw odds are just a bit longer than Portland’s chances of winning at (+340).

MLS
St. Louis	-132	-134	-135	-139	-139
Portland	+330	+321	+310	+300	+300
Draw	+330	+320	+340	+320	+320

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St. Louis CITY are Draw Merchants in MLS

St. Louis began the season with 4 draws in their first 5 matches. They have since doubled that number to reach a league-leading 8 draws on the year. While draws can indicate a stubborn club that forces stalemates on the road and always has a chance to pull ahead on any given night, it can also indicate plenty of trouble. In 3 of their games in which they scored first, they dropped a total of 7 points.

While avoiding losses, so too do you miss out on those crucial 3 points that come with a win. And that is where this team finds itself at the moment, amidst a 3-game winless streak and no real ground to stand on at 11th in the Western Conference. These performances are very lackluster coming from a club that topped the West last season with only 5 draws in total. Their 17 wins trailed only FC Cincinnati and Orlando City in the entire MLS.

St. Louis seems to be hitting bad luck at every turn, however. Just digest this unbelievable statistic: In all of St. Louis’ games in which they have scored multiple times, they have drawn in all but two, going 2-6-0. That is quite an unfortunate run, yet highlights their difficulty in holding leads and preventing goals when out of possession. If St. Louis do not win on Saturday, they will match their longest winless streak in the MLS regular season.

St. Louis To Win

-134

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Portland Timbers Picking Up Steam at Halfway Point

Portland’s story is a very different story than St. Louis’ situation currently. The Timbers have not lost in 3 straight games and are back in the playoff picture. Perhaps this resurgence can be credited to boss Phil Neville, a credentialed former player for Manchester United. While he struggled to lead Inter Miami, ultimately leaving the club in 2023 last in the Eastern Conference, he has led Portland right back to where they were at this point last season, with 20 points through 17 matches.

The international break has limited the available players in the MLS, which explains the small slate of games for this weekend. Notable absences in this matchup include Canadian Kyle Hiebert. The St. Louis player will be available for Canada in their friendly against the Netherlands on Thursday.

Other Canucks called up to the national team, and will be missing in this game, are Portland’s goalie Maxime Crepeau and key defender Kamal Miller. Miguel Araujo will also be away for Peru. Portland has only traveled to CITYPARK once in their history, when they made the visit last year. The Timbers triumphed 2-1 courtesy of a late finish from Yimmi Chara.

Portland To Win

+330

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St. Louis vs Portland Timbers Prediction and Free Betting Pick

With both teams headed in opposite directions, the natural inclination is to side with the Portland Timbers to keep the status quo. Yet visitors notoriously have a hard time earning victories in the MLS. I am also not entirely convinced that what we have seen from St. Louis is truly their level of quality, considering the outlandish amount of draws in high-scoring affairs. Additionally, their 3-3 draw against Inter Miami, led by Messi that night, was very impressive, even if they did luck out with a Miami own goal.

St. Louis’ outlined propensity to finish level after 90 minutes, coincided with a Portland Timbers team that has had success coming back after an opening goal concession, lead me to believe this game is destined for another draw. I would be very cautious of recommending playing St. Louis at juice, and Portland’s defense leaves too much to be desired to be trusted on the road.

Therefore, I will recommend a small play on the draw at (+340). Typically betting this favors a 0-0 or 1-1 ending. But these odds are far too wide in a match that even if plenty of goals are scored, a 2-2 or 3-3 scoreline is still very realistic. I rarely advocate for draws but this feels the prime opportunity to hope for St. Louis to continue to do what, apparently, they do best.

Draw Game Outcome

+340

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Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.

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