Sabalenka and Gauff to meet in US Open Women's final is the smart bet

Dean Etheridge
By , Updated on: Sep 11, 2023 12:00 AM
Women's 2023 US Open Winner Picks

The US Open Women’s singles title has now reached the semi-final stage. Only one of the top four seeds has made it this far, Aryna Sabalenka (+135), and she is the favorite to win her first-ever US Open, and second-ever Grand Slam when the final is decided on Saturday. In our latest tennis betting picks, we tell you if Sabalenka is worth betting on, or if home favorite Coco Gauff can land her first Grand Slam in front of her adoring home fans.

  • Only four women remain. Madison Keys, Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Karolína Muchová
  • Keys takes on Sabalenka in the first semi-final, with Gauff facing Muchova in the second match
  • Aryna Sabalenka is the favorite to win the final, which is at the Arthur Ashe Stadium on Saturday, September 9th

What a competition it has been so far. Already the world No.1, Iga Swiatek has gone out, losing in three sets to the 20th seed, Jelena Ostapenko at the Round of 16 stage.

Also exiting early was the No.3 seed, Jessica Pegula, who lost in straight sets to Madison Keys in the Round of 16. And Elena Rybakina is also gone, after losing to Sorana Cirstea in the 3rd Round.

Betting to win the Women’s US Open

Aryna Sabalenka is the highest seed (No.2) remaining in the competition and the favorite to win in the latest US Open odds. The 2023 Australian Open winner is +135 to add the US Open to her growing list of career titles.

According to the best online tennis betting sites, the biggest threat to Sabalenka is Coco Gauff at +185 to win her first-ever Grand Slam title.

Karolína Muchová (+550) and Madison Keys (+550) make up the rest of the betting odds. Full betting is below on our US Open tennis odds betting table.

PlayersBovadaBetOnlineMyBookie
Aryna Sabalenka+135+135+135
Coca Gauff+185+185+185
Karolina Muchova+550+550+550
Madison Keys+550+550+550

Keys vs. Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Chinese 23rd seed Zheng Qinwen 6-1 6-4 to take her place in the semi-final. As well as reaching her fourth Grand Slam semi-final this year and her third successive US Open semi-final, the 25-year-old is set to take over as the new World No.1 when the rankings are updated on Monday.

Sabalenka will take on Madison Keys in their semi-final after the No.17 seed knocked out the No.9 seed, Markéta Vondroušová, in their quarter-final on Wednesday night. Keys made light work of the higher seed, seeing off Vondroušová in two sets, 6-1 6-4.

Keys goes into her semi-final clash with Sabalenka as the underdog. Sabalenka starts the match as the -270 favorite with the bookmakers. Madison Keys is +230 to pull off a shock win to reach her second-ever US Open final and possibly set up an all-American final against Coco Gauff on Saturday.

Keys does have a chance. Aryna Sabalenka has lost five of the six semi-finals she has played in. This includes her last two at the US Open. Along with Wimbledon and the French Open this year.

But we feel that Sabalenka is in a good place at the moment, and she will come through this matchup and take her place in the final.

Aryna Sabalenka To beat Madison Keys
Bovada
-270

Gauff vs. Muchová

In the other sem-final, home favorite Coco Gauff takes on Karolína Muchová, with Gauff looking for her first-ever Grand Slam title. Gauff has been in scintillating form lately, winning 16 of her last 17 matches. In her latest win, she made light work of Jelena Ostapenko in their last-eight match, beating the Latvian 6-0 6-2 in just 68 minutes.

Attempting to stop Gauff from reaching the US Open final for the first time is Karolína Muchová. Muchová is the no.10 seed and has largely had an untroubled run to the last four, only being taken to three sets on one occasion.

The 27-year-old will have her work cut out against Gauff though. The American is now not only starting to fulfill her potential but will also have the crowd on her side, making the task for Karolína Muchová all the more difficult.

In the betting to win the match, Coco Gauff is the favorite at -190, with Karolína Muchová the outsider at +165. It will take some performance to stop Gauff, and we feel it will be beyond Muchová.

Coco Gauff To beat Karolína Muchová
Bovada
-190

US Open Winner Pick

At the start of the competition, we suggested hedging Aryna Sabalenka at +500 and Jessica Pegula at +1000. We went with Pegula as she was a home favorite and had been in good form. Sadly for us, mainly because Pegula was the better odds, the home favorite is out of the competition.

But, we are still standing to profit from the women’s competition if Sabalenka wins.

There is a slight temptation to have a few dollars on Coco Gauff and hedge our bets. But we are sticking to our original pick. Aryna Sabalenka has looked like one of the strongest players in the competition, and we are remaining loyal and are happy with our betting pick.

Aryna Sabalenka To win 2023 US Open
Bovada
+135

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Meet the author

Dean Etheridge

Dean is primarily a fan of English football who regularly attends games, and combining his hobby with his job, he is now a full-time sports betting writer.  Rather than going down the educational route into sports journalism, Dean learned his trade by writing for hi...

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