Dan Favale | Tue 26/06/2018 - 05:03 EDT

World Cup Bracket: Ultimate Odds To Make The Knockout Stage

World Cup Bracket: Ultimate Odds To Make The Knockout Stage
The 2018 FIFA World Cup bracket is nearing the Round of 16, but before we start thinking about the next stage, we first need to take stock of the group standings. Two teams have already claimed first place in their division, but that leaves six sectors still searching for a top dog. We have all the latest odds on which countries still have a chance to secure the No. 1 spot in their four-team gaggle and thus earn a more favorable matchup for the start of the knockout round.

Remaining group stage odds come via Bovada and are accurate as of Monday, June 25. Be sure to double check these lines before placing any wagers, as they move daily at this point of the tournament. Also note that not all four teams from every group are included. We’re only looking at ones that have not yet been eliminated from first-place consideration. These are not straight-out Round of 16 odds. 

Already Decided


Group A: Uruguay

Uruguay sealed first place in Group A with a dominant 3-0 victory over Russia on Monday. They will face off against Portugal in the Round of 16.

Group B: Spain

After playing Morocco to a tie on Monday, Spain emerged as the winner of Group B with a record of one win and two draws. They just snuck past Portugal by way of tiebreaker. They’re slated to face off against Russia during the Round of 16.

In Progress

Group C


France (-500)

Despite France’s overwhelming odds to win Group C, their fate will be tied to the outcome of their upcoming match with Denmark. If they win or tie, they’ll have the No. 1 spot under wraps. Should they lose, however, they’ll forfeit the first-place marker.

The good news? They’re not in danger of falling outside the Round of 16. Neither Australia nor Peru enters their group stage finale with a victory, so France is guaranteed to finish no worse than second. 

Denmark (+350)

Denmark is an interesting dark horse because of the situation in which they find themselves. A win against France in their last group stage sparring puts them into first place.

Oddsmakers don’t give them much of a chance, though—and for good reason. They’ve only totaled two goals through their first two matches. France hasn’t doesn’t much better (three goals), but they sport appreciably more power from the striking positions. 

Group D


Croatia (-20,000)

Arguably one of the two or three most surprising teams of the tournament, Croatia is officially no longer worth a first-place investment. They have a commanding hold on the top position in Group D, a comfy spot they earned by shutting out both Argentina and Nigeria.

Already assured of a bid to the Round of 16, it will take a grueling twist of fate for them to forfeit first place. Speaking of which…

Nigeria (+3,300)

So, we’re saying there’s a chance? Indeed, but not a good one.

Nigeria’s loss to Croatia is proving costly as they prep for a final match versus Argentina—a team that was considered a far superior unit entering the tournament. They’ll need Iceland to beat Croatia while they emerge victorious against Argentina and catch Croatia in the goal differential department. 

As far as unlikely scenarios go, that’s easy enough. Right? Wrong. Croatia has a plus-five advantage over Nigeria in goal differential. They’ll need to be an obliterated by an obviously inferior foe and Nigeria will need to manhandle an obviously superior opponent for the latter to take prime podium placement.

Group E


Brazil (-300)

Although it will be tight, Brazil should be able to secure first place in Group E. They need to win against Serbia in their finale while protecting their goal-differential advantage over Switzerland (plus-one).

Serbia has been surprisingly competitive relative to its group. They were earmarked as the third-best squad of this division coming in. And yet, thanks to their near-miss versus Switzerland, they’re actually in the mix for first place themselves. 

Switzerland (+275)

Switzerland has a legitimate chance to knock off Brazil and finish atop Group E. They’ll need a little bit of luck, but not much. Their stalemate versus Brazil helps them here. All they need to do is dispatch Costa Rica, who remains winless, and make up the one-goal deficit separating them from the current first-place owners.

This is mind, Switzerland also has to worry about Serbia. They throw themselves into consideration with a win over Brazil. 

Serbia (+1,400)

Props to Serbia for making it this far—to reaching the final match day of group play with not only a shot at sneaking into the Round of 16, but also to steal first place altogether.

Grabbing the pole position won’t be easy. They need to both beat Brazil and win the goal-differential battle. They’re currently a minus-two on that front, so they’ll need to upset Brazil by a minimum of that much while also hoping Switzerland gets dealt a loss or draw. 

Group F


Mexico (-275)

Mexico continues to reap the benefits of its opening-match victory over powerhouse Germany. Win or draw against Sweden, and they’ll have sole ownership of first place. That’s literally it. 

As an added bonus, they’re virtual shoo-ins for the Round of 16. Winning versus Sweden simplifies the process, but they can advance even with a loss if Germany also loses to South Korea or doesn’t overtake them in the goal differential category—where Mexico is currently a plus-two overall.

Germany (+350)

Counting out Germany would be a mistake. Yes, their loss to Mexico in their first match was a big-time letdown. They were also unspectacular in the 2-1 victory over Sweden.

But the fact that Mexico has, for the most part, been playing over its head is more important. It’s not hard to envision them losing to Sweden and surrendering the goal differential. They’re a plus-two, but they’ll throw back at least one of those points in a loss, and Germany certainly has more than enough firepower to deconstruct South Korea by two goals. 

Sweden (+500)

Laying a +500 is pretty impressive for a team with the third-best odds of winning their group. Sweden’s success hinges on beating Mexico and winning the goal differential war with Germany.

It’s not an especially likely outcome. Sweden has yet to eclipse the one-goal mark in either of its first two matches. But it’s not impossible either. Germany has been shaky from an x’s and o’s standpoint in both of its tilts, and Mexico was pegged as the No. 3 team in this group prior to the World Cup, so they’re hardly invincible.

Group G 


England (-150)

England and Belgium have already sewn up cameos in the Round of 16. All that’s left to figure out is which one of them will nab the Group G crown.

That will be determined in their head-to-head matchup in the first-round finale. A victory for either one earns them the honor. Should they draw, though, FIFA will plumb the full extent of their tiebreaker policies. 

Hence why England has the top odds. Sportsbooks have these two teams on close to equal footing when looking at their single-game rumble, but Belgium is more likely to bow out of first place in the event of a deadlock. 

Belgium (+115)

As we just mentioned, Belgium is a tick more likely to lose in a tiebreaker scenario with England, so their odds are slightly worse. A draw doesn’t completely rule them out, but they’re better off controlling their own destiny. Win against England, and they have first place. It’s that simple.

Group H


Japan (+135)

Fittingly enough, we’ll be closing with the best group of the World Cup. Not a single one of the three teams vying for first place are laying even money or better. They’re all “underdogs,” according to the oddsmakers.

Japan’s +135 looms as the top line, in no small part because they pull the winless Poland team in their finale. They guarantee advancement into the Round of 16 with a win, but they trail in the goal differential department. They’ll need to beat Poland by two or more scores while hoping neither Senegal nor Colombia does the same to the other. 

Colombia (+185)

Colombia is in a complicated situation. They have a better goal differential (plus-two) than either Senegal or Japan, but they’re also the only one of these three with a loss. (Japan and Senegal played to a draw.)

To ensure themselves first place, they need a win and a Japan loss. It says a lot, then, that they’re laying better odds than Senegal, because Japan is a heavy favorite versus Poland. It comes down to firepower. Their offense finds a groove when granted open space inside midfield. So while they’re not head and shoulders better than Senegal (or Japan), they’re more likely to run off a three-goal victory. 

Senegal (+225)

Senegal’s position, as alluded to before, is more about their chances in the matchup with Colombia. Oddsmakers don’t particularly like them to win that meeting. 

In the event they do send Colombia to an early exit, they’ll need a Japan loss or they must have beaten Colombia by a larger margin than Japan beat Poland.

Confusing, we know. But that’s what make this group so special. It’s not just that three teams are all in the mix; it’s that they’re all so tightly looped together when weighing all the different scenario that could take place. 


  • Round of 16: Match 50: Group C winner vs. Group D runner-up
  • 10 a.m. ET
  • Kazan
  • Fox/FS1
  • Round of 16: Match 49: Uruguay vs. Portugal
  • 2 p.m. ET
  • Sochi
  • Fox/FS1


  • Round of 16: Match 51: Spain vs. Russia
  • 10 a.m. ET
  • Moscow
  • Fox/FS1
  • Round of 16: Match 52: Group D winner vs. Group C runner-up
  • 2 p.m. ET
  • Nizhny Novgorod
  • Fox/FS1


  • Round of 16: Match 53: Group E winner vs. Group F runner-up
  • 10 a.m. ET
  • Samara
  • Fox/FS1
  • Round of 16: Match 54: Group G winner vs. Group H runner-up
  • 2 p.m. ET
  • Rostov
  • Fox/FS1


  • Round of 16: Match 55 (Group F winner vs. Group E runner-up)
  • 10 a.m. ET
  • Saint Petersburg
  • Fox/FS1
  • Round of 16: Match 56 (Group H winner vs. Group G runner-up)
  • 2 p.m. ET
  • Rostov
  • Fox/FS1


  • Quarterfinal: Match 57 (Match 49 winner vs. Match 50 winner)
  • 10 a.m. ET
  • Nizhny Novgorod
  • FS1
  • Quarterfinal: Match 58 (Match 53 winner vs. Match 54 winner)
  • 2 p.m. ET
  • Kazan
  • FS1


  • Quarterfinal: Match 60 (Match 55 winner vs. Match 56 winner)
  • 10 a.m. ET
  • Samara
  • Fox
  • Quarterfinal: Match 59 (Match 51 winner vs. Match 52 winner)
  • 2 p.m. ET
  • Sochi
  • Fox


  • Semifinal: Match 61 (Match 57 winner vs. Match 58 winner)
  • 2 p.m. ET
  • Saint Petersburg
  • Fox


  • Semifinal: Match 62 (Match 59 winner vs. Match 60 winner)
  • 2 p.m. ET
  • Moscow
  • Fox


  • Third-place match: Match 63 (Match 61 loser vs. Match 62 loser)
  • 10 a.m. ET
  • Saint Petersburg
  • Fox


  • Final: Match 64 (Match 61 winner vs. Match 62 winner)
  • 11 a.m. ET
  • Moscow
  • Fox
World Cup
World Cup
Final stage - Round of 16
  • R16
  • 1/4
  • 1/2
  • 3rd pl.
  • Final
Away Score Home Money Line
Saturday 30 June
FT Argentina 3 - 4 France +233 +148
45+' Portugal 0 - 1 Uruguay +173 +209
Sunday 01 July
Russia 10:00 Spain +565 -159
Denmark 14:00 Croatia +441 -112
Monday 02 July
Mexico 10:00 Brazil +685 -189
Japan 14:00 Belgium +910 -244
Tuesday 03 July
Switzerland 10:00 Sweden +173 +219
England 14:00 Colombia +114 +318

Category : Sports Betting News

Tag : Argentina , belgium , Brazil , FIFA World Cup , germany , Japan

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