Barcelona are favorites to win the Champions League outright, but they will have to get through Inter first to hoist their 6th-ever UCL title. Inter finished as runners-up just two years ago, and now knock on the door of their 7th trip to the final. The first leg was a thrilling 3-3 draw, setting up a winner-takes-all showdown in Milan this week. Continue reading for expert Champions League picks and explore stats and betting tips for Inter vs Barcelona.
- FC Internazionale Milano vs FC Barcelona
- Champions League
- May 6, 2025
- 3 PM EST
- Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
- Paramount+
Champions League Picks: Inter vs Barcelona Betting Odds
Barcelona are the favorites despite playing at San Siro this week At (+121), Barcelona have an implied probability to win of 45.2%. Inter can spoil the party as (+206) underdogs. A draw is priced at (+290).
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Controversial Scheduling Complicates Matters for Barcelona
After a shocking loss of their club doctor mere hours ahead of their clash with Mallorca, Barcelona are struggling to keep up with the demands of a packed schedule. La Liga did not budge on the designated day to replay the match, so the fixture took place last week. That means Barcelona will play twice per week all the way until the end of the club season after returning from international break. And there are few opportunities to rest players, as Barca hope to win the LaLiga title.
Unlike Inter, who were eliminated from domestic cup contention this week, Barcelona won the Copa del Rey against Real Madrid last weekend. What they do have in common is meeting their biggest rivals in their respective knockout tournaments. In Barcelona’s case, their derbies have gone in their favor. But tactically, Real Madrid was set up poorly to succeed against a high-pressing, offsides trap-based Barcelona.
How Hansi Flick will adjust to the dynamic formations of Inter manager Simone Inzaghi will be interesting to see. Barcelona will have to face the now-healthy and thriving Denzel Dumfries and Marcus Thuram, absences Inter sorely missed in their semifinal against Milan. Thuram has the pace and finishing to score where Inter couldn’t without him, despite their many good chances. And Dumfries matches up well against Raphinha on Barcelona’s left side.
Inter Remain in Tight Battle for Scudetto With Napoli
Despite all of Inter’s successes this season, it is their archrivals that have been their bogeyman. Inter failed to win any of their five Derby della Maddoninas. Indeed, Inter drew once and lost once in Serie A against AC Milan, repeated the same results in their Coppa Italia semifinal tie, and lost to Milan in the Supercoppa as well. Such a poor run amidst an incredible year for Inter and a dip in form for Milan is quite unbelievable, especially considering Milan prevailed despite managerial changes.
On the heels of that brutal defeat to Milan in the Coppa Italia, Inter have a chance at redemption. The club remains in a tight race with Napoli for the Scudetto, a battle that will not likely be settled until the final matchday. Both clubs earned victories over the weekend, with Napoli defeating Lecce away and Inter taking down Verona at home. That keeps Inter 3 points behind the lead with three fixtures to go.
No team is more feared at the moment than Hansi Flick’s side, who had not lost in 2025 until their defeat to Dortmund. That loss was meaningless as Barcelona prevailed in their quarterfinals tie on aggregate, yet it did break what was the fourth-longest unbeaten run in club history. Inter will like to beat them while they’re down, but they are entering rather unfamiliar territory. Barcelona and Inter have not met in European competition since 2022, when Xavi was still the manager at Camp Nou.
Champions League Picks: Expert Prediction for Barcelona vs Inter
While Barcelona’s unbeaten streak was broken, few will put much stock into it as Barcelona essentially wrapped up business with Dortmund heading into that second leg of the quarterfinal. This run has put Barcelona’s market cap at an all-time high. But it was just a few months ago when the outlook was not as bright. Back in December, Barcelona lost multiple games in a row without Lamine Yamal and questions were raised about Flick’s fit with his new club.
But from a betting standpoint, there seems to be a more pressing overreaction to take advantage of. The total for this second leg has climbed up to 3.25, a quarter-goal higher than the first leg. While this seems fair enough given the 6-goal outburst we witnessed last week, there are underlying factors inclining me to look the other direction.
Despite the two clubs scoring 3 goals apiece last match, they only compiled a grand total of 2.26 expected goals. That’s a far cry from the actual result, lending us to believe there was plenty of luck at hand last week. And the eye test would confirm that. A half-bicycle kick finish and back-heel flick represented two of the 6 scores, techniques difficult to pull off and replicate consistently.
I think fading the public narrative is the way to go on Tuesday. This total has got up way too high after a ton of lucky finishes. I think the true number is a quarter-goal lower at least, so I like the value on under 3.5 goals. Expect Inzaghi and Flick to both make strong defensive adjustments in anticipation of a gritty affair.
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