Can Jimmy Butler Lead Miami Heat to Martin Luther King Jr. Day Over Atlanta Hawks?

Can Jimmy Butler Lead Miami Heat to Martin Luther King Jr. Day Over Atlanta Hawks?

When the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks meet on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, it will be under very different circumstances than most expected.

Entering the 2022-23 NBA season, the assumption was both squads would be title contenders. In fact, each of them began the year with top-shelf odds to win the 2023 NBA Finals. Roughly halfway through the schedule, though, everything for Atlanta and Miami has been turned upside down.

The Hawks are dealing with drama behind the scenes, an underachieving offense and an unimpressive bench. The Heat are battling injuries, a Kyle Lowry aging curve, very poor half-court offense and a shallow bench themselves. Never mind winning the NBA title. Miami and Atlanta no longer have surefire odds to make the NBA playoffs. Heading into Monday's matchup, they both rank outside the top six in the Eastern Conference, which means if the season ended right now, they'd need to survive the play-in tournament.

Needless to say, both teams desperately need all the wins they can get. But only one can pick up a victory on Monday. Here are the latest NBA online betting odds for their showdown:

Miami Heat-120-111Atlanta Hawks

Please remember to double-check these online NBA betting odds before submitting your Heat vs. Hawks picks. Tipoff is slated for Monday, January 16, at 3:30 p.m. EST. Our Hawks vs. Heat betting odds are accurate entering the morning of Monday, January 16, and you can expect bookkeepers to continue making adjustments right up until the game starts.

Of course, if you're registered with the right sportsbook, you don't have to worry about missing any last-minute adjustments to Heat vs. Hawks betting lines. That's why we've put together a catalog of reviews for the best online sportsbooks. These in-depth overviews will give you the inside track on the best NBA online betting sites for the 2022-23 season.

With all of that said, let's get to our money, point spread and over/under predictions for Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks.

The Unpredictability of the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks Shines Through on Their Moneyline Betting Odds

There's one other wrinkle to this matchup between the Hawks and Heat: While both are underachieving on the season, each has started to emerge from the doldrums. The Hawks have won three of their past four games, while the Heat have tallied four victories in their past five outings. 

Whether these stretches are a harbinger of permanent change remains to be seen, in large part because neither team scored a trademark win. The Heat beat up on a shorthanded Milwaukee Bucks franchise twice, as well as a Phoenix Suns squad without Devin Booker. The Hawks took advantage of a short-handed L.A. Clippers unit, an Indiana Pacers group without Myles Turner or Tyrese Haliburton and a slumping Toronto Raptors organization.

The biggest development entering Monday, for either team, might be the play of Trae Young for Atlanta. After an inefficient start to the season, he has spent the past week or so downing ultra difficult threes and effectively jump-starting the offense. That's a huge boon for the Hawks, who continue to hover inside the bottom 10 of points scored per possession.

Miami, meanwhile, may find itself without Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro. That's going to put a strain on an already fragile half-court offense. At the same time, Atlanta's hot start on defense is starting to cool in the wake of Clint Capela's injury, which has cost him nearly a month of action.

Upon sorting through the logistics, you can understand why oddsmakers have made this one almost too close to call. We lean towards the Heat, because they have ratcheted up their defense and have, perhaps, the two best players of the matchup in Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler.

OSB Prediction: Miami Heat (-120)

Miami Heat To beat the Atlanta Hawks

Oddsmakers Have Decided on a Rail-Thin Point Spread for the Heat vs. Hawks Game

Here are the latest NBA point spread betting odds for Heat vs. Hawks on Monday:

  • Miami Heat, -1 (-112)
  • Atlanta Hawks, +1 (-108)

Value bettors should pounce on Miami. This is essentially a pick 'em spread, and it pays out better than the Heat's moneyline (-120).

Everything else we've already said about this matchup stands. Granted, we might move the Heat to -3 favorites if your sportsbook allows you to juice the action. But Atlanta is playing at home, where they are a hair above .500, so we get why this one is so tight.

OSB Prediction: Miami Heat, -1 (-110)

Miami Heat To cover the point spread against the Atlanta Hawks

Miami and Atlanta Offer a Golden Opportunity to Bet the Under

Below you can see the latest NBA over/under betting odds for the Hawks vs. Heat game: 

  • Over 223.5 (-110)
  • Under 223.5 (-110)

Cursory glances at the Miami and Atlanta rosters suggest this 223.5-point line isn't ambitious enough. But that feeling dissipates once you dig into the details.

Injuries are peppered throughout this matchup that will impact the rate of offensive play. For the Heat specifically, they'll be without two of their most important half-court players, in Lowry and Herro. And we mustn't forget their half-court attack is a slog to begin with. Miami churns out a below-average offensive rating even when Bam, Butler, Herro and Lowry are all on the floor.

Atlanta is a tad healthier. They will miss Capela, but Onyeka Okongwu provides adequate cover as a rim protector and finisher at the cup. However, the Hawks continue to rely too heavily on the mid-range jumper and don't take enough threes. So while they have the talent to run up the score, their shot selection is inherently limiting. Bet the under for Hawks vs. Heat.

Heat and Hawks To score under 223.5 points combined

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all of your NBA betting:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan Favale leverages over 12 years of sports journalism expertise in his role as New York staff writer. He provides in-depth analysis across the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, tennis, NASCAR, college basketball, and sports betting. Dan co-hosts the popular Hardwood Knocks NBA podc...

Online Sports Betting may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. Rest assured, we avoid biases and provide honest opinions on sportsbooks. Read more here.