Top Golf Betting News This Week | Aaron Rai Shocks PGA Market, Scheffler Still Rules U.S. Open Futures | May, 2026

By Will Chace, Updated on: May 19, 2026 12:00 AM

This week’s biggest PGA Championship betting storylines

Biggest futures and outright moves in golf betting this month

U.S. Open futures market outlook

The U.S. Open futures market is now the main attraction for golf bettors. At Bovada, Scheffler leads the way at (+400), with Rory McIlroy at (+750). Those two sit in leagues of their own, as the next wave of talent starts at 12:1 with Jon Rahm, followed by Cameron Young at 14:1 and DeChambeau at 16:1. Aaron Rai is the biggest mover but still needs a lot to go right to win again at 80:1. Make your picks with the best US Open betting sites for 2026.

Aaron Rai Line Movement Across Golf Futures

That Aaron Rai movement makes sense on paper but bettors should be wary of jumping on it just to follow the sharps. It is likely sportsbooks are hesitant to price Rai at a big number as the public will be happy to bet it, making this movement likely more based on volume than an actual probability increase. Additionally, Shinnecock is a very different course than Aronimink. U.S. Open participants will have to lean on their driving and scrambling skills rather than resting on their iron play. Rai bettors may prefer to attack his odds at The Open, but oddsmakers have pushed him down to (+6000) as well. The narrative of an Englishman winning Britain’s only major will certainly be considered a playable factor to many golf bettors.

Jon Rahm: Dark Horse Candidate for U.S. Open?

Jon Rahm may be a more interesting look based on line movement. Rahm was the runner-up at the PGA Championship and constitutes the biggest odds movement amongst the top contenders. Formerly (+1300), Rahm creeped up to (+1100) after his strong outing at Aronimink. He is familiar to most golf fans and has two major wins under his belt in the last five years, including a U.S. Open victory in 2021.

Injuries, form and player movement impacting odds

Brooks Koepka’s return to the PGA Tour remains the only notable player movement across the golf scene this year, but rumors of former rival DeChambeau making his way back to the PGA have been heating up. Bryson recently came out reaffirming his commitment to LIV Golf, but without a contract in writing, his future at the company remains unclear. Reports even suggested DeChambeau would be open to a move to the DP World Tour if matters are not resolved regarding the funding of LIV.

The PGA Tour is doing well on the injury front, with just a few notable players missing time. Will Zalatoris and Collin Morikawa continue to deal with lingering back injuries, which are only exacerbated by the heavy demands of the current scheduling. Jake Knapp has also withdrawn from recent events due to a thumb injury. Knapp was a favorite of many betting sharps with strong underlying numbers but little results to prove it. That profile is perfect for smart bettors who analyze golf betting stats and trends, looking for gaps in the markets where players are undervalued.

Once seen as a perennial major contender, Morikawa’s odds have taken a hit as he still struggles with his back injury. He played through it at the Masters and even rallied for a top-10 finish, but he clearly wasn’t 100%. That’s why Morikawa is found in the middle tier of the U.S. Open favorites at around 35:1. Zalatoris, meanwhile, is nowhere to be found in the futures boards amidst a long hiatus from play. Knapp is still available at odds of 50:1, about what you would expect from a player of his skill, meaning the books do not believe his thumb injury will hold him back from contention at Shinnecock.

U.S. Open futures market check-in

Scottie Scheffler is the market leader for the U.S. Open and for all futures markets for that matter. Scheffler dominates all futures as the clear leader for this weekend’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson as well as The Open and early markets for next year’s Masters and PGA Championship. A regular top-10 finisher and one of the most dominant golfers we have seen since Tiger Woods, sportsbooks clearly respect his game. While Scheffler is experiencing a bit of a drought, it’s likely not long before we see him back to winning ways. He is a (+180) favorite to repeat in his home state of Texas.

Aaron Rai is the most obvious riser after his maiden major win at Aronimink. Usually an afterthought in signature events and majors, Rai enjoys respect from bookmakers after his magnum opus.

Bryson DeChambeau represents the other side of that shift with market confidence quickly dropping. The two-time U.S. Open champion will fancy his chances at his preferred major and at a course that should suit his swing profile well, but can he overcome his demons? DeChambeau cut a frustrated figure in media rounds on Thursday and his MC coincides with his futures odds dropping down to (+2500) to win outright at Shinnecock. It is important not to forget Cameron Young as well, whose great play at The Players and the Masters have boosted his stock significantly. The budding American is now (+1400) to win the U.S. Open.

For more information, view our 2026 golf betting odds page.

Betting trends we’re watching this month

An obvious trend worth reflecting on is the dominance of Scottie Scheffler in the betting markets. Scheffler has been the top favorite week in and week out for years now, and bettors will start to experience some fatigue. While he is the best player in the world, his style is not always the best fit on every course, and smart handicappers must take the high amount of variance in golf into account. Can Scheffler “cover” a line of (+150) this week at the CJ Cup, for example? The field is thin, Scheffler has had previous success at TPC Craig Ranch, and he will enjoy fan support in his home state, so there is an argument the price is right. But it won’t be right every week, and bettors should be ready to zig and zag around the market’s lofty expectations of golf’s best player.

Another trend is the course specificity at recent majors. The U.S. Open and the PGA Championship both rotate locations, and as we saw at Aronimink, not all course setups are equal. Aronimink played very difficult, too difficult according to some pundits, and Shinnecock will likely be no different. Many players will likely finish over par and a bad weather forecast could quickly turn the US Open into a tournament of patience and control.

What could move odds before next month’s update

Scottie’s showing down in Texas likely won’t change his major odds too much barring a clear and dominant wire-to-wire type of victory. In that case, his odds will likely shorten just a little. Frankly, it’s hard to justify pricing Scheffler any more of a favorite for the U.S. Open than he currently is.

Bettors should also keep a watchful eye on Aaron Rai. Many will still be writing off his PGA Championship triumph as a fluke. But a few more quality starts and Rai will begin to justify his line movement. If he struggles, Rai may return to his pre-PGA odds.

We are also just one month out from the U.S. Open, which means some sharps will begin to take some futures and could potentially move the market on their own. If you catch any line movement that cannot be explained by recent results or popularity, it is reasonable to speculate a sharp landed on that player and there may be some value on him.

Previous betting news updates

• [Late March]: Cameron Young’s PLAYERS win made him a legitimate contender.
• [Masters week]: McIlroy defended Augusta, but Scheffler stayed the PGA favorite.
• [April 16]: Young shortened from +3000 to +2200 for the PGA Championship.
• [This month]: DeChambeau fell from opening (+900) to (+2500) to win the U.S. Open after two bad major starts.

Meet the author

Will Chace

Sports betting analyst covering soccer, tennis, golf, MMA, and major US sports. Boston-based writer with published work at SportyTrader and TechTarget. Graduated cum laude from Bentley University with a degree in Marketing. Known for clear, no-frills betting analysis...