- What: #5 Washington vs #11 Oregon State
- When: Saturday, November 18th, 7:30 PM ET
- Where: Reser Stadium - Corvallis, OR
We're all about the numbers here, but sometimes, the numbers only tell part of the story. Take the upcoming NCAA showdown between the Oregon State Beavers and the Washington Huskies.
There will be no shortage of Online college football betting as the college football season enters its crucial stage, and every game becomes a high-stakes chess match.
Despite the numbers, I'm backing the Oregon State Beavers at -1 against the Washington Huskies in what I foresee as a low-scoring affair dominated by the Beavers' superior rushing game.
Game Preview (Spread)
The Huskies are unbeaten this season, riding a wave of 17 straight wins, and their offense ranks fifth in points per drive.
But as they roll into Reser Stadium, I'm going against the grain and backing the Beavers. Yes, you heard it right.
 |  |  | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Huskies +1 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Oregon State Beavers -1 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Here's why: Schedules matter. Despite their winning streak, the Huskies are stepping into a tough spot. The Beavers have lost only one home game since the start of the 2021 season.
Over the last two seasons, their home/road splits paint a picture of a team that thrives on home turf.
Washington’s undefeated season continues 😤 pic.twitter.com/NhqECvCLDw
— ESPN (@espn) November 12, 2023
Their offense slightly dips on the road, while their defense has a massive regression away from Reser Stadium. This could be a defining factor in the upcoming game.
Now, let's talk about the Beavers' offense. Their run game is nothing short of a well-oiled machine, with a rushing success rate that ranks third-best and two running backs averaging more than 5.8 yards per carry.
One can attribute the rushing success to the stellar offensive line Oregon State has fielded this season. Superb starting center Jake Levengood should also return this week to bolster that unit further.
This rushing prowess is the difference in a game that will likely be low-scoring. A strong ground game can control the clock and keep the explosive Husky offense off the field.
On the other hand, the Huskies' defense has been less than stellar. They rank 103rd in stopping opponents on third down, 112th in havoc rate, 123rd in tackle success rate, and a dismal 133rd in sack rate.
While they have players who can get to the quarterback, they struggle to finish with a sack.
This could give Beavers' quarterback DJ Uiagalelei and freshman Aiden Chiles ample time and opportunity to make plays. I'm not dismissing the Huskies' offense.
But the Beavers have been the most profitable home team in all college football over the past three seasons. They've gone 17-1 ATS and covered by over 10 points per game in those matchups.
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Total Points
Let's take a look at the total points prop for this matchup.
| | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 62.5 Points | -105 | -105 | -110 |
| Under 62.5 Points | -115 | -115 | -110 |
The Huskies are fifth in points per drive and have shown they can produce big plays. But I'm not convinced that the Beavers' secondary can't handle this.
They rank 70th in plays over 20-plus yards in the air, which is respectable.
I'm banking on Oregon State's superior rushing game and home-field advantage to edge a win against the Huskies.
The Huskies have had a fair share of close wins this season, and this just might be the game where their luck runs out.
Oregon State QB D.J. Uiagalelei this season:
🦫 89.8 PFF Grade
🦫 20 Touchdowns
🦫 4 Interceptions
🦫 108.7 Passer Rating pic.twitter.com/SSRNp8AMjV— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 15, 2023
I'm backing Oregon State -1 for -110 odds at Betonline. And thanks to the Beavers' ground game and the Huskies' lackluster defense, I'm also betting under 62.5 points at -115 odds at Betonline.
Now remember, there's no such thing as a 'sure thing' in sports betting. But if you're looking for an informed bet, the Beavers might just be your team this Saturday.
Buckle up for a nail-biter at Reser Stadium, folks!
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