It feels like a foregone conclusion that Joe Biden and Donald Trump will meet in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election — however, Robert Kennedy Jr. will also be in the mix. There’s money to make off the third candidate too. You’ll want to read this for expert betting advice on Kennedy Jr.’s chances.
- Who: Robert Kennedy Jr.
- What: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Why Is Robert Kennedy Jr. Running For President?
In October 2024, Kennedy Jr. — often referred to as RFK Jr. — announced he would be running for President as an independent. Previously, he was under the Democratic ticket as his dad, Robert Sr., and uncle, Jack, did. The inclusion of RFK Jr. will almost surely give Americans a legit third option besides the usual Republican and Democrat candidates. This has massive ramifications for Trump and Biden too.
Most of all, Kennedy is going to eat into the vote count for both candidates. How much exactly is up for debate, but it’s not unthinkable Kennedy could gain a double-digit percentage of votes. No independent candidate has done that since Ross Perot in 1994, who ultimately earned 19 percent of the vote. Perot is a major reason Bill Clinton unseated incumbent George H. Bush that year. That performance remains the best for a non-Republican and non-Democrat since 1912. Could RFK have similar success?
It’s possible. To this day, the Kennedy name means something — especially in Democratic circles. While RFK Jr. isn’t your ordinary Democrat these days (he is famously very skeptical of vaccines), it doesn’t mean some voters won’t align with him on name value alone.
But even when it comes to policy, Kennedy has an opportunity to swindle votes from his competitors. He has a lot of the anti-establishment ethos that ultimately won Trump the election in 2016. Not only is Kennedy against vaccines, but also against war, which has dominated the news cycle with Ukraine and Israel-Gaza. Both issues have touched a nerve with young and minority voters — a demographic Democrats usually win.
Biden is hovering at historic low levels of approval right now. Trump, lost the 2020 election, due to his massive unpopularity. That’s why RFK Jr. is such a threat — many voters want a different option. Kennedy Jr. is that option, and one with one of the most famous names in American politics too.
Robert Kennedy Jr. Betting Picks
There are multiple RFK Jr. bets available at top-used betting sites for politics. Here are a few betting strategies for them:
Two-Leg Parlay
There are two separate bets on whether or not RFK Jr. endorses his competitors — Biden and Trump. Here are the odds are each one:
| Endorse Trump? |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | +300 | +300 | +300 |
| No | -500 | -500 | -500 |
| Endorse Biden? | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| No | -2500 | -2500 | -2500 |
As you can see, there’s a way higher chance of RFK Jr. endorsing Trump, per the oddsmakers. Despite Kennedy’s roots, it does seem he’s more politically similar to center-of-right folks. But at the same time, Kennedy endorsed Hilary Clinton over Trump in 2016 so that tells you exactly what he thinks of the ex-President.
With both of these wagers, we’re strongly betting the no. Kennedy would only endorse another candidate if he dropped out of the campaign. We don’t see that happening cause his whole persona is predicated on the “outsider” role. Endorsing one of the major candidates instantly kills that credibility.
One thing that’s not being talked about is if RFK Jr. holds out as an independent, he could find himself on a debate stage with both Biden and Trump. That would be a serious wildcard scenario that only happens if RFK Jr. stays in the competition. We’re willing to bet it happens.
We’d parlay both of these no-endorsement bets because of the long odds. That way, you get some betting value out of it — not a lot, but better than solo bets.
Underdog Bet To Win
RFK Jr. has a shot to win the full-on presidency — albeit an extremely low one. Here are the current odds to win the 2024 election:
| Candidate | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | +125 | +125 | +125 |
| Joe Biden | +200 | +200 | +200 |
| Gavin Newsom | +650 | +650 | +650 |
| Nikki Haley | +650 | +650 | +650 |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Ron DeSantis | +3000 | +3000 | +3000 |
Honestly, it might be worth to throw a prayer bet on Kennedy. Look, we get it, the United States is firmly entrenched in a two-party state. However, if there’s ever a year for an upset, it’s this one with the two leading Democrat and Republican candidates being so unfavorable.
Don’t put a lot of money on RFK Jr. However, the beauty of his odds is you don’t need that much money in case he unthinkably wins. Treat this bet as a pure Hail Mary cause that’s what it is, albeit one worth making given the conditions.
How To Bet On U.S. Politics?
Betting on U.S. politics is indeed a thing — if you use an offshore betting site, that is. Most regulated sportsbooks don’t allow it, but no such rules exist at bookies like the ones listed below. These are the top-rated bookmakers in our latest sportsbook reviews so you’re money is in good hands no matter where you go.
Moreover, you’ll find every type of bet you can think of at these sites in regard to politics. That goes well beyond American politics too. Elections from all over the world are bet-able. See for yourself by visiting the sites. Just click one of the “play now” buttons to get started.
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