Seattle vs LAFC Prediction: Back Reigning Champs

Seattle takes on LAFC in the MLS Cup Conference Semifinals this Sunday. This will be their third edition of the fixture to take place in the playoffs since 2019, with Seattle ousting them on both previous occasions. Now in Seattle, LAFC will have their backs against the wall as they attempt to defend their MLS Cup trophy. Continue reading for an expert Seattle vs LAFC prediction and explore the latest news on the 2023 MLS Cup playoffs.

Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC, MLS Cup Conference Semifinals
November 26, 2023
9:30 PM EST
Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
MLS Season Pass on Apple TV+

Seattle vs LAFC Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?

Seattle will emerge from their tunnel confident in their ability to win this match, as they are the favorites as of today. At (+140), the Sounder’s implied probability to win outright is 41.7%. The visiting Los Angeles-based club LAFC will help bettors pay out at 2:1 odds across the market if they can pull off the victory in the first 90 minutes. A draw is not too far behind at (+260), currently available at highly-rated online sportsbook BetUS.

MLS Playoffs
Seattle Sounders	+140	+130	+130	+125	+130
LAFC	+200	+200	+200	+200	+200
Draw	+251	+260	+260	+250	+260

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2023 MLS Cup Playoffs Format

The 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs adopt a format reminiscent of the FIFA World Cup after Round One. Matches span 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with the potential for two 15-minute extra time periods before a potential penalty shootout. Gone are the double-leg ties; instead, it's a winner-takes-all scenario, favoring the higher seed's venue advantage throughout, culminating in the Final.

Success in these playoffs hinges on a sturdy defense, a formidable home track record, and an attack skilled in consistent goal-scoring. The MLS Cup is notorious for luck playing a pivotal role, compressing an entire season into decisive showdowns. While finishing abilities vary, a barrage of shots can often sway the game's fortunes in this fiercely contested tournament.

A New Star Emerges in Hollywood

While Gareth Bale now calmly resides at home, the stars that make up Los Angeles FC and their winning ways continue on without the Welshman. Carlos Vela remains in the No. 10 shirt, but a new superstar has emerged in the Gabonese sensation Dénis Bouanga. Bouanga has scored 20 times across the regular season, and has added an additional 3 goals in LAFC’s two playoff matches.

Before the upcoming match against the Seattle Sounders, LAFC manager Steve Cherundolo has assured in a press briefing that all players are fit and ready for selection. Unfortunately for Seattle, Sota Kitahara's sidelined due to a muscle issue, and Reed Baker-Whiting is also out due to a hamstring injury. Cody Baker will step in for Baker-Whiting to bolster the full-back options, while Obed Vargas is set to take on more playtime in Kitahara's absence.

The overall head-to-head record favors Los Angeles by 3 games. LAFC has won 8 times to Seattle’s 5, to go along with 4 draws. Their most recent fixture culminated in a 1-0 win for LAFC back in late June.

Seattle Sounders Regressing From Past Years

The Sounders are perennial contenders to hoist the MLS trophy, and this season is no exception. Earning the 2nd spot in the MLS Cup Playoffs, Seattle has been guided by midfielder Albert Rusnák, whose seven goals have all proven to be match winners. This includes the two winning goals of last round’s best-of-three series vs FC Dallas.

However, Seattle is not the same team it once was. This point is encapsulated by the downfall of the once team-defining partnership of Nicolás Lodeiro and Raúl Ruidíaz. The two former stars are now relegated to supplementary roles, with USMNT international Jordan Morris taking up the reins. Additionally, Lodeiro might part ways after this game, given his contract's impending expiration by year-end.

Seattle Sounders To Defeat LAFC

+140

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Seattle vs LAFC Prediction and Free Betting Pick

Seattle is a shell of their former selves, a team that has fallen into relative mediocrity since their days of Western dominance. Now facing the reigning champions LAFC, their hands will be full.

If Seattle plays like they did against FC Dallas in the deciding match, LAFC should cruise to the Conference Finals. Dallas didn’t have a single shot, let alone a shot on target, until almost the final whistle. While Seattle was completely dominant from the get-go, their only goal was a result of a dreadful turnover by Dallas’ Sebastien Ibeagha.

LAFC’s high-powered unit will put it on this Seattle team, and make it much more difficult than the simple test Dallas provided. The MLS is a volatile league with plenty of surprises, typically making it more valuable to back low-likely outcomes. In these playoffs, I think LAFC are a tough out and should be the side to take here.

All signs point to a high-scoring affair, but both teams showed worrying signs offensively last time out. Considering an already low total, I am cautious of jumping on the over in what may be a trap line. I would play this game more conservatively and take a small stake on LAFC to win in 90 minutes at (+200) or better.

LAFC To Defeat the Seattle Sounders

+200

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Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.

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