Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Back Vini Jr. to Score

Will Chace
By , Updated on: Jan 8, 2024 07:00 PM
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Back Vini Jr. to Score

Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will play out their historic rivalry in a rare match taken place outside of their contentious city limits. The two Madrid-based clubs take their talents to the desert city of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia for the semi-final of the Spanish Super Cup. The cup pits the winners and runners-up of LaLiga and Copa del Rey against each other in a four-team playoff. Read on to access an expert Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction and explore tips for Spanish Super Cup betting.

  • Real Madrid CF vs Atlético de Madrid, Spanish Super Cup semi-final
  • January 10, 2024
  • 2 PM EST
  • Al-Awwal Park, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  • ESPN2, ESPN+

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?

Real Madrid are slight favorites at (+105), according to highly-rated online sportsbook Bovada. Playing at a neutral venue, Atletico Madrid will hope to capitalize on a friendly crowd. The underdogs are currently priced at (+260). A draw would pay out at the exact same rate depending on the book, with an available line of (+260) at the moment.

Spanish Super CupBetOnlineBetUSBovadaBetNow
Real Madrid+104+105+110+105
Atletico Madrid+260+255+245+255

To better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market, see our online soccer betting pageand learn about La Liga betting odds.

Real Madrid Rumors: Ancelotti Extends, Mbappe Arrives?

Real Madrid leads the La Liga table alongside Girona, boasting 45 points and only one loss this season. Their sole defeat occurred against their Madrid rivals at the Metropolitano, marking the last time they stumbled domestically or internationally. 

In recent updates, manager Carlo Ancelotti has agreed to extend his contract until 2026 during the holiday season. Florentino Perez, the long-serving president of Real Madrid, finalized the deal after discussions with Ancelotti. The contract includes conditions set by Ancelotti: Real Madrid must secure a center-back in January due to long-term injuries to Eder Militao and David Alaba.

Additionally, rumors of Parisian superstar Kylian Mbappe signing with Real after the completion of this season have continued to ramp up. Recent Spanish reports, albeit notoriously unreliable, have further connected the World Cup winner to Real. Madrid may in fact be the only team besides his current outfit PSG to even afford to sign a player of his caliber, making a transition to Spain more likely as the years go on. 

Real Madrid To Defeat Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid Season Statistics and Recent H2H

Compared to Real Madrid’s mind-blowing 12 Super Cup trophies, Atletico have hoisted the elusive Spanish silverware just twice. Interestingly enough, their most recent win was against an Ancelotti-based Real side in 2014, which they managed to come out victorious over a two-legged final.

Diego Simeone’s side is now teetering on the edge of title elimination in LaLiga. A heartbreaking 4-3 loss to Girona may have doomed their hopes, a side that is now tied with Real atop the table. The loss slipped Atleti down to a tie for 4th, leaving them in solid contention for a future European appearance nonetheless.

Atletico will have reason to believe they can take on this Real Madrid side despite some recent bumps in the road. After suffering two losses in their last 5 matches, Atletico will look for motivation from their 3-1 victory over their Madrid rivals back in September. Atleti now have the chance to beat Real Madrid in consecutive meetings for the first time since 2014 when they followed up their Super Cup success with a 2-1 win in LaLiga.

Atletico Madrid To Defeat Real Madrid

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction and Free Betting Pick

This match represents the first of three Madrid derbies to take place in 27 days. Real Madrid and Atletico drew each other in the Spanish Super Cup semi-final and the Copa del Rey Round of 16. Interestingly, neither the Copa del Rey nor La Liga winners reached the Supercopa de España final in the first three editions of the four-team format.

On neutral territory, I have to favor Real Madrid to get their 6th consecutive victory. Atletico have been inconsistent of late, with two losses and a draw in their last 5 games. Real love the bright lights better than any club in the world, and on primetime TV with a spot in a trophy final on the line, expect Real to pull through and earn a tight win.

With that being said, I don’t see much value on the moneyline. The line seems about right, and with little movement, sharp bettors seem to agree. To back a game I think favors Real and will be on the higher-scoring side, I will take a look at the Anytime Goalscorer market. 

Vinicius Jr. was sidelined for all of December with a hamstring injury, but a recovery ahead of schedule has allowed him to return in 2024. His explosive style has suited Real well, and a desire to score in a big game after just returning to form will be top of mind for the Brazilian. Take Vini to score in this game at (+190) on Bovada. But stay conservative on your betting wager. Considering this prop is rather specific, variance is high.

Vinicius Jr. To Score Anytime

Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.

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Meet the author

Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports an...

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